The evolving roles of US political partisanship and social vulnerability in the COVID-19 pandemic from February 2020-February 2021.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had intense, heterogeneous impacts on different communities and geographies in the United States. We explore county-level associations between COVID-19 attributed deaths and social, demographic, vulnerability, and political variables to develop a better understanding of the evolving roles these variables have played in relation to mortality. We focus on the role of political variables, as captured by support for either the Republican or Democratic presidential candidates in the 2020 elections and the stringency of state-wide governor mandates, during three non-overlapping time periods between February 2020 and February 2021.

Using digital traces to build prospective and real-time county-level early warning systems to anticipate COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to affect the world, and the design of strategies to curb disease outbreaks requires close monitoring of their trajectories. We present machine learning methods that leverage internet-based digital traces to anticipate sharp increases in COVID-19 activity in U.S.

Stability Analysis of a Signaling Circuit with Dual Species of GTPase Switches.

GTPases are molecular switches that regulate a wide range of cellular processes, such as organelle biogenesis, position, shape, function, vesicular transport between organelles, and signal transduction. These hydrolase enzymes operate by toggling between an active ("ON") guanosine triphosphate (GTP)-bound state and an inactive ("OFF") guanosine diphosphate (GDP)-bound state; such a toggle is regulated by GEFs (guanine nucleotide exchange factors) and GAPs (GTPase activating proteins). Here we propose a model for a network motif between monomeric (m) and trimeric (t) GTPases assembled exclusively in eukaryotic cells of multicellular organisms.

Phase Separation of a PKA Regulatory Subunit Controls cAMP Compartmentation and Oncogenic Signaling.

The fidelity of intracellular signaling hinges on the organization of dynamic activity architectures. Spatial compartmentation was first proposed over 30 years ago to explain how diverse G protein-coupled receptors achieve specificity despite converging on a ubiquitous messenger, cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP). However, the mechanisms responsible for spatially constraining this diffusible messenger remain elusive.

Stability Analysis of a Bulk-Surface Reaction Model for Membrane Protein Clustering.

Protein aggregation on the plasma membrane (PM) is of critical importance to many cellular processes such as cell adhesion, endocytosis, fibrillar conformation, and vesicle transport. Lateral diffusion of protein aggregates or clusters on the surface of the PM plays an important role in governing their heterogeneous surface distribution. However, the stability behavior of the surface distribution of protein aggregates remains poorly understood.

Forecasting dengue fever in Brazil: An assessment of climate conditions.

Local climate conditions play a major role in the biology of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, the main vector responsible for transmitting dengue, zika, chikungunya and yellow fever in urban centers. For this reason, a detailed assessment of periods in which changes in climate conditions affect the number of human cases may improve the timing of vector-control efforts. In this work, we develop new machine-learning algorithms to analyze climate time series and their connection to the occurrence of dengue epidemic years for seven Brazilian state capitals.

Assessment of a trap based Aedes aegypti surveillance program using mathematical modeling.

The goal of this study was to assess the goodness-of-fit of theoretical models of population dynamics of Aedes aegypti to trap data collected by a long term entomological surveillance program. The carrying capacity K of this vector was estimated at city and neighborhood level. Adult mosquito abundance was measured via adults collected weekly by a network of sticky traps (Mosquitraps) from January 2008 to December 2011 in Vitória, Espírito Santo, Brazil.