Tropical Atlantic multidecadal variability is dominated by external forcing.

The tropical Atlantic climate is characterized by prominent and correlated multidecadal variability in Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), Sahel rainfall and hurricane activity. Owing to uncertainties in both the models and the observations, the origin of the physical relationships among these systems has remained controversial. Here we show that the cross-equatorial gradient in tropical Atlantic SSTs-largely driven by radiative perturbations associated with anthropogenic emissions and volcanic aerosols since 1950-is a key determinant of Atlantic hurricane formation and Sahel rainfall.

Response to Comment on "The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation".

Zhang et al interpret the mixed-layer energy budget in models as showing that "ocean dynamics play a central role in the AMO." Here, we show that their diagnostics cannot reveal the causes of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and that their results can be explained with minimal ocean influence. Hence, we reaffirm our findings that the AMO in models can be understood primarily as the upper-ocean thermal response to stochastic atmospheric forcing.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a major mode of climate variability with important societal impacts. Most previous explanations identify the driver of the AMO as the ocean circulation, specifically the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here we show that the main features of the observed AMO are reproduced in models where the ocean heat transport is prescribed and thus cannot be the driver.