Impact of the UK soft drinks industry levy on health and health inequalities in children and adolescents in England: An interrupted time series analysis and population health modelling study.

Background: The soft drinks industry levy (SDIL) in the United Kingdom has led to a significant reduction in household purchasing of sugar in drinks. In this study, we examined the potential medium- and long-term implications for health and health inequalities among children and adolescents in England.

Methods And Findings: We conducted a controlled interrupted time series analysis to measure the effects of the SDIL on the amount of sugar per household per week from soft drinks purchased, 19 months post implementation and by index of multiple deprivation (IMD) quintile in England.

Projected health and economic impacts of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in Germany: A cross-validation modelling study.

Background: Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have been implemented globally to reduce the burden of cardiometabolic diseases by disincentivizing consumption through increased prices (e.g., 1 peso/litre tax in Mexico) or incentivizing industry reformulation to reduce SSB sugar content (e.

Long-Term Effect of Weight Regain Following Behavioral Weight Management Programs on Cardiometabolic Disease Incidence and Risk: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: Behavioral weight management programs (BWMPs) enhance weight loss in the short term, but longer term cardiometabolic effects are uncertain as weight is commonly regained. We assessed the impact of weight regain after BWMPs on cardiovascular risk factors, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease.

Methods: Trial registries, 11 databases, and forward-citation searching (latest search, December 19) were used to identify articles published in English, from any geographical region.

Estimated Impact of Achieving the Australian National Sodium Reduction Targets on Blood Pressure, Chronic Kidney Disease Burden and Healthcare Costs: A Modelling Study.

Excess sodium intake raises blood pressure which increases the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We aimed to estimate the impact of reduced sodium intake on future CKD burden in Australia. A multi-cohort proportional multistate lifetable model was developed to estimate the potential impact on CKD burden and health expenditure if the Australian Suggested Dietary Target (SDT) and the National Preventive Health Strategy 2021-2030 (NPHS) sodium target were achieved.

Weight regain after behavioural weight management programmes and its impact on quality of life and cost effectiveness: Evidence synthesis and health economic analyses.

Aims: We used data from a recent systematic review to investigate weight regain after behavioural weight management programmes (BWMPs, sometimes referred to as lifestyle modification programmes) and its impact on quality-of-life and cost-effectiveness.

Materials And Methods: Trial registries, databases and forward-citation searching (latest search December 2019) were used to identify randomized trials of BWMPs in adults with overweight/obesity reporting outcomes at ≥12 months, and after programme end. Two independent reviewers screened records.

Avoidable burden of stomach cancer and potential gains in healthy life years from gradual reductions in salt consumption in Vietnam, 2019-2030: a modelling study.

Objective: Excess salt consumption is causally linked with stomach cancer, and salt intake among adults in Vietnam is about twice the recommended levels. The aim of this study was to quantify the future burden of stomach cancer that could be avoided from population-wide salt reduction in Vietnam.

Design: A dynamic simulation model was developed to quantify the impacts of achieving the 2018 National Vietnam Health Program (8 g/d by 2025 and 7 g/d by 2030) and the WHO (5 g/d) salt reduction policy targets.

Forecast of myocardial infarction incidence, events and prevalence in England to 2035 using a microsimulation model with endogenous disease outcomes.

Background: Models that forecast non-communicable disease rates are poorly designed to predict future changes in trend because they are based on exogenous measures of disease rates. We introduce microPRIME, which forecasts myocardial infarction (MI) incidence, events and prevalence in England to 2035. microPRIME can forecast changes in trend as all MI rates emerge from competing trends in risk factors and treatment.

Dietary Salt Reduction, Prevalence of Hypertension and Avoidable Burden of Stroke in Vietnam: Modelling the Health and Economic Impacts.

Dietary salt reduction has been recommended as a cost-effective population-wide strategy to prevent cardiovascular disease. The health and economic impact of salt consumption on the future burden of stroke in Vietnam is not known. To estimate the avoidable incidence of and deaths from stroke, as well as the healthy life years and healthcare costs that could be gained from reducing salt consumption in Vietnam.

Modelling future trajectories of obesity and body mass index in England.

Background: Obesity is a leading risk for poor health outcomes in England. We examined best- and worst-case scenarios for the future trajectory of the obesity epidemic.

Methods: Taking the last 27 years of Health Survey for England data, we determined both position and shape of the adult body mass index (BMI) distribution and projected these parameters 20 years forward in time.

The potential health impact of restricting less-healthy food and beverage advertising on UK television between 05.30 and 21.00 hours: A modelling study.

Background: Restrictions on the advertising of less-healthy foods and beverages is seen as one measure to tackle childhood obesity and is under active consideration by the UK government. Whilst evidence increasingly links this advertising to excess calorie intake, understanding of the potential impact of advertising restrictions on population health is limited.

Methods And Findings: We used a proportional multi-state life table model to estimate the health impact of prohibiting the advertising of food and beverages high in fat, sugar, and salt (HFSS) from 05.

Health Gain, Cost Impacts, and Cost-Effectiveness of a Mass Media Campaign to Promote Smartphone Apps for Physical Activity: Modeling Study.

Background: Physical activity smartphone apps are a promising strategy to increase population physical activity, but it is unclear whether government mass media campaigns to promote these apps would be a cost-effective use of public funds.

Objective: We aimed to estimate the health impacts, costs, and cost-effectiveness of a one-off national mass media campaign to promote the use of physical activity apps.

Methods: We used an established multistate life table model to estimate the lifetime health gains (in quality-adjusted life years [QALYs]) that would accrue if New Zealand adults were exposed to a one-off national mass media campaign to promote physical activity app use, with a 1-year impact on physical activity, compared to business-as-usual.

Fuelling walking and cycling: human powered locomotion is associated with non-negligible greenhouse gas emissions.

Reducing motorized transport and increasing active transport (i.e. transport by walking, cycling and other active modes) may reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and improve health.

Prospective impact of tobacco eradication and overweight and obesity eradication on future morbidity and health-adjusted life expectancy: simulation study.

Background: Interventions that reduce morbidity, in addition to mortality, warrant prioritisation. It is important to understand the magnitude of potential morbidity and health gains from changing risk factor distributions. We quantified the impact of tobacco compared with overweight/obesity eradication on future morbidity and health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) for the New Zealand population alive in 2011.

Achieving Healthy and Sustainable Diets: A Review of the Results of Recent Mathematical Optimization Studies.

Climate protection and other environmental concerns render it critical that diets and agriculture systems become more sustainable. Mathematical optimization techniques can assist in identifying dietary patterns that both improve nutrition and reduce environmental impacts. Here we review 12 recent studies in which such optimization was used to achieve nutrition and environmental sustainability aims.

Potential of active transport to improve health, reduce healthcare costs, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions: A modelling study.

Background: Physical inactivity contributes substantively to disease burden, especially in highly car dependent countries such as New Zealand (NZ). We aimed to quantify the future health gain, health-sector cost-savings, and change in greenhouse gas emissions that could be achieved by switching short vehicle trips to walking and cycling in New Zealand.

Methods: We used unit-level survey data to estimate changes in physical activity, distance travelled by mode, and air pollution for: (a) switching car trips under 1km to walking and (b) switching car trips under 5km to a mix of walking and cycling.

PRIMEtime CE: a multistate life table model for estimating the cost-effectiveness of interventions affecting diet and physical activity.

Background: Non-communicable diseases are the leading cause of death in England, and poor diet and physical inactivity are two of the principle behavioural risk factors. In the context of increasingly constrained financial resources, decision makers in England need to be able to compare the potential costs and health outcomes of different public health policies aimed at improving these risk factors in order to know where to invest so that they can maximise population health. This paper describes PRIMEtime CE, a multistate life table cost-effectiveness model that can directly compare interventions affecting multiple disease outcomes.

Potential impact of a modest reduction in salt intake on blood pressure, cardiovascular disease burden and premature mortality: a modelling study.

Objective: To assess the potential impact of reduction in salt intake on the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and premature mortality in Cameroon.

Methods: Using a multicohort proportional multistate life table model with Markov process, we modelled the impact of WHO's recommended 30% relative reduction in population-wide sodium intake on the CVD burden for Cameroonian adults alive in 2016. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted and used to quantify uncertainty.

Modelling the health co-benefits of sustainable diets in the UK, France, Finland, Italy and Sweden.

Background/objectives: It is not known if diets lower in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are also healthier. We evaluated the population health implications of changing to more sustainable diets in the UK, France, Finland, Italy and Sweden.

Subjects/methods: We developed a life table model to simulate mortality and morbidity from diet-related diseases over the lifetime of the current population.

Restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies combined with cessation advice: a modelling study of the future smoking prevalence, health and cost impacts.

Objective: Restricting tobacco sales to pharmacies only, including the provision of cessation advice, has been suggested as a potential measure to hasten progress towards the tobacco endgame. We aimed to quantify the impacts of this hypothetical intervention package on future smoking prevalence, population health and health system costs for a country with an endgame goal: New Zealand (NZ).

Methods: We used two peer-reviewed simulation models: 1) a dynamic population forecasting model for smoking prevalence and 2) a closed cohort multi-state life-table model for future health gains and costs by sex, age and ethnicity.

Cost-effectiveness of raising alcohol excise taxes to reduce the injury burden of road traffic crashes.

Background: Alcohol is an important risk factor for road transport injuries. We aimed to determine if raising alcohol taxes would be a cost-effective intervention strategy for reducing this burden.

Methods: We modelled the effect of a one-off increase in alcohol excise tax (NZ$0.

Impact of increasing tobacco taxes on working-age adults: short-term health gain, health equity and cost savings.

Objective: The health gains and cost savings from tobacco tax increase peak many decades into the future. Policy-makers may take a shorter-term perspective and be particularly interested in the health of working-age adults (given their role in economic productivity). Therefore, we estimated the impact of tobacco taxes in this population within a 10-year horizon.

Impact of five tobacco endgame strategies on future smoking prevalence, population health and health system costs: two modelling studies to inform the tobacco endgame.

Objective: There is growing international interest in advancing 'the tobacco endgame'. We use New Zealand (Smokefree goal for 2025) as a case study to model the impacts on smoking prevalence (SP), health gains (quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)) and cost savings of (1) 10% annual tobacco tax increases, (2) a tobacco-free generation (TFG), (3) a substantial outlet reduction strategy, (4) a sinking lid on tobacco supply and (5) a combination of 1, 2 and 3.

Methods: Two models were used: (1) a dynamic population forecasting model for SP and (2) a closed cohort (population alive in 2011) multistate life table model (including 16 tobacco-related diseases) for health gains and costs.

Translating the WHO 25×25 goals into a UK context: the PROMISE modelling study.

Objective: Model the impact of targets for obesity, diabetes, raised blood pressure, tobacco use, salt intake, physical inactivity and harmful alcohol use, as outlined in the Global Non-Communicable Disease Action Plan 2013-2020, on mortality and morbidity in the UK population.

Design: Dynamic population modelling study.

Setting: UK population.

Taxes and Subsidies for Improving Diet and Population Health in Australia: A Cost-Effectiveness Modelling Study.

Background: An increasing number of countries are implementing taxes on unhealthy foods and drinks to address the growing burden of dietary-related disease, but the cost-effectiveness of combining taxes on unhealthy foods and subsidies on healthy foods is not well understood.

Methods And Findings: Using a population model of dietary-related diseases and health care costs and food price elasticities, we simulated the effect of taxes on saturated fat, salt, sugar, and sugar-sweetened beverages and a subsidy on fruits and vegetables, over the lifetime of the Australian population. The sizes of the taxes and subsidy were set such that, when combined as a package, there would be a negligible effect on average weekly expenditure on food (<1% change).

Correction: Health, Health Inequality, and Cost Impacts of Annual Increases in Tobacco Tax: Multistate Life Table Modeling in New Zealand.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.