Land-use and climate risk assessment for Earth's remaining wilderness.

Earth's wilderness areas are reservoirs of genetic information and carbon storage systems, and are vital to reducing extinction risks. Retaining the conservation value of these areas is fundamental to achieving global biodiversity conservation goals; however, climate and land-use risk can undermine their ability to provide these functions. The extent to which wilderness areas are likely to be impacted by these drivers has not previously been quantified.

Tracking habitat or testing its suitability? Similar distributional patterns can hide very different histories of persistence versus nonequilibrium dynamics.

The expansions and contractions of a species' range in response to temporal changes in selective filters leave genetic signatures that can inform a more accurate reconstruction of their evolutionary history across the landscape. After a long period of continental decline, Australian rainforests settled into localized patterns of contraction or expansion during the climatic fluctuations of the Quaternary. The environmental impacts of recurring glacial and interglacial periods also intensified the arrival of new lineages from the Sunda shelf, and it can be expected that immigrant versus locally persistent taxa responded to environmental challenges in quantifiably different manner.

Land use planning to support climate change adaptation in threatened plant communities.

Among the many causes of habitat loss, urbanization coupled with climate change has produced some of the greatest local extinction rates and has led to the loss of many native species. Managing native vegetation in a rapidly expanding urban setting requires land management strategies that are cognizant of these impacts and how species and communities may adapt to a future climate. Here, we demonstrate how identifying climate refugia for threatened vegetation communities in an urban matrix can be used to support management decisions by local government authorities under the dual pressures of urban expansion and climate change.

Embedding biodiversity research into climate adaptation policy and practice.

Addressing climate change risks requires collaboration and engagement across all sectors of society. In particular, effective partnerships are needed between research scientists producing new knowledge, policy-makers and practitioners who apply conservation actions on the ground. We describe the implementation of a model for increasing the application and useability of biodiversity research in climate adaptation policy and practice.

Hydraulic failure and tree size linked with canopy die-back in eucalypt forest during extreme drought.

Eastern Australia was subject to its hottest and driest year on record in 2019. This extreme drought resulted in massive canopy die-back in eucalypt forests. The role of hydraulic failure and tree size on canopy die-back in three eucalypt tree species during this drought was examined.

Conservation prioritization can resolve the flagship species conundrum.

Conservation strategies based on charismatic flagship species, such as tigers, lions, and elephants, successfully attract funding from individuals and corporate donors. However, critics of this species-focused approach argue it wastes resources and often does not benefit broader biodiversity. If true, then the best way of raising conservation funds excludes the best way of spending it.

Impacts of climate change on high priority fruit fly species in Australia.

Tephritid fruit flies are among the most destructive horticultural pests posing risks to Australia's multi-billion-dollar horticulture industry. Currently, there are 11 pest fruit fly species of economic concern in Australia. Of these, nine are native to this continent (Bactrocera aquilonis, B.

Substantial declines in urban tree habitat predicted under climate change.

Globally, local governments are increasing investment in urban greening projects. However, there is little consideration of whether the species being planted will be resilient to climate change. We assessed the distribution of climatically suitable habitat, now and in the future, for 176 tree species native to Australia, commonly planted across Australia's Significant Urban Areas (SUAs) and currently grown by commercial nurseries.

Author Correction: Potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability for the Queensland fruit fly.

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has been fixed in the paper.

Potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability for the Queensland fruit fly.

Anthropogenic climate change is a major factor driving shifts in the distributions of pests and invasive species. The Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni Froggatt (Qfly), is the most economically damaging insect pest of Australia's horticultural industry, and its management is a key priority for plant protection and biosecurity. Identifying the extent to which climate change may alter the distribution of suitable habitat for Qfly is important for the development and continuation of effective monitoring programs, phytosanitary measures, and management strategies.

Influence of adaptive capacity on the outcome of climate change vulnerability assessment.

Climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) has become a mainstay conservation decision support tool. CCVAs are recommended to incorporate three elements of vulnerability - exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity - yet, lack of data frequently leads to the latter being excluded. Further, weighted or unweighted scoring schemes, based on expert opinion, may be applied.

Combining dispersal, landscape connectivity and habitat suitability to assess climate-induced changes in the distribution of Cunningham's skink, Egernia cunninghami.

The ability of species to track their climate niche is dependent on their dispersal potential and the connectivity of the landscape matrix linking current and future suitable habitat. However, studies modeling climate-driven range shifts rarely address the movement of species across landscapes realistically, often assuming "unlimited" or "no" dispersal. Here, we incorporate dispersal rate and landscape connectivity with a species distribution model (Maxent) to assess the extent to which the Cunningham's skink (Egernia cunninghami) may be capable of tracking spatial shifts in suitable habitat as climate changes.

Climate, soil or both? Which variables are better predictors of the distributions of Australian shrub species?

Background: Shrubs play a key role in biogeochemical cycles, prevent soil and water erosion, provide forage for livestock, and are a source of food, wood and non-wood products. However, despite their ecological and societal importance, the influence of different environmental variables on shrub distributions remains unclear. We evaluated the influence of climate and soil characteristics, and whether including soil variables improved the performance of a species distribution model (SDM), Maxent.

Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe.

Aim: Plant invasions often follow initial introduction with a considerable delay. The current non-native flora of a region may hence contain species that are not yet naturalized but may become so in the future, especially if climate change lifts limitations on species spread. In Europe, non-native garden plants represent a huge pool of potential future invaders.

MOLECULAR DETECTION OF ANTIBIOTIC-RESISTANCE DETERMINANTS IN ESCHERICHIA COLI ISOLATED FROM THE ENDANGERED AUSTRALIAN SEA LION (NEOPHOCA CINEREA).

Greater interaction between humans and wildlife populations poses significant risks of anthropogenic impact to natural ecosystems, especially in the marine environment. Understanding the spread of microorganisms at the marine interface is therefore important if we are to mitigate adverse effects on marine wildlife. We investigated the establishment of Escherichia coli in the endangered Australian sea lion (Neophoca cinerea) by comparing fecal isolation from wild and captive sea lion populations.

Giardia duodenalis and Cryptosporidium occurrence in Australian sea lions (Neophoca cinerea) exposed to varied levels of human interaction.

Giardia and Cryptosporidium are amongst the most common protozoan parasites identified as causing enteric disease in pinnipeds. A number of Giardia assemblages and Cryptosporidium species and genotypes are common in humans and terrestrial mammals and have also been identified in marine mammals. To investigate the occurrence of these parasites in an endangered marine mammal, the Australian sea lion (Neophoca cinerea), genomic DNA was extracted from faecal samples collected from wild populations (n = 271) in Southern and Western Australia and three Australian captive populations (n = 19).

Phenological changes in the southern hemisphere.

Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species.

Continental scale analysis of bird migration timing: influences of climate and life history traits-a generalized mixture model clustering and discriminant approach.

There is substantial evidence of climate-related shifts to the timing of avian migration. Although spring arrival has generally advanced, variable species responses and geographical biases in data collection make it difficult to generalise patterns. We advance previous studies by using novel multivariate statistical techniques to explore complex relationships between phenological trends, climate indices and species traits.

Global projections of 21st century land-use changes in regions adjacent to Protected Areas.

The conservation efficiency of Protected Areas (PA) is influenced by the health and characteristics of the surrounding landscape matrix. Fragmentation of adjacent lands interrupts ecological flows within PAs and will decrease the ability of species to shift their distribution as climate changes. For five periods across the 21(st) century, we assessed changes to the extent of primary land, secondary land, pasture and crop land projected to occur within 50 km buffers surrounding IUCN-designated PAs.

Impacts of climate change on the world's most exceptional ecoregions.

The current rate of warming due to increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is very likely unprecedented over the last 10,000 y. Although the majority of countries have adopted the view that global warming must be limited to <2 °C, current GHG emission rates and nonagreement at Copenhagen in December 2009 increase the likelihood of this limit being exceeded by 2100. Extensive evidence has linked major changes in biological systems to 20th century warming.

Why is the choice of future climate scenarios for species distribution modelling important?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are common tools for assessing the potential impact of climate change on species ranges. Uncertainty in SDM output occurs due to differences among alternate models, species characteristics and scenarios of future climate. While considerable effort is being devoted to identifying and quantifying the first two sources of variation, a greater understanding of climate scenarios and how they affect SDM output is also needed.

Extinction risk from climate change.

Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'.