Long-term forecast for antibacterial drug consumption in Germany using ARIMA models.

The increasing supply shortages of antibacterial drugs presents significant challenges to public health in Germany. This study aims to predict the future consumption of the ten most prescribed antibacterial drugs in Germany up to 2040 using ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) models, based on historical prescription data. This analysis also evaluates the plausibility of the forecasts.

Development of bacterial resistance in Germany from 2008 to 2022 - major culprit pathogens, antibacterial drugs, and prescribing practices.

Rising bacterial resistance is a global threat, causing rising financial burdens on healthcare systems and endangering effective treatment of bacterial infections. To ensure the efficacy of antibacterial drugs, it is essential to identify the most dangerous pathogens and vulnerable antibacterial drugs. Previous research by our group suggested irrational outpatient prescribing practices in Germany, supporting a growing bacterial resistance.

Daily defined dose-costs have a stronger influence on antibacterial drug prescriptions in Germany than bacterial resistance: economic factors are more important than scientific evidence.

Previous research from our group revealed a strong association between daily defined dose (DDD)-costs and -prescriptions of antibacterial drugs in Germany ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.

DDD-costs have a strong influence on antibacterial drug prescription in Germany: a differentiated correlation analysis from 1985 to 2022.

Antibacterial drugs are vital in modern medicine, and understanding the factors influencing their prescriptions is essential for maintaining their effectiveness and accessibility. This study investigates the hypothesis that costs significantly impact the prescriptions of antibacterial drugs, a factor previously underrecognized. To investigate this, we conducted correlation analyses on defined daily dose (DDD-) prescriptions and DDD-costs for the 15 most prescribed antibacterial drugs in Germany in 2022, using data from the Arzneimittelverordnungsreport (Drug Prescription Report) (1985-2022).

Costs are a major driver of antibacterial drug prescriptions in Germany: market analysis from 1985 to 2022.

In recent years, several threatening developments regarding antibacterial drugs, such as rising bacterial resistance and delivery bottlenecks, have occurred. Since antibacterial drugs are crucial for modern medicine, understanding events and influencing factors relevant for long-term developments is essential. Therefore, we analyzed the number of prescriptions and costs, defined daily dose (DDD) and DDD costs of antibacterial drugs in Germany, based on the Arzneiverordnungsreport (AVR, Drug description report) between 1985 and 2022.