Vehicle choice modeling for emerging zero-emission light-duty vehicle markets in California.

To predict the market dynamics of various zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) technologies, this study introduces a dynamic discrete vehicle choice model (VCM) that investigates the probabilities associated with 14 decision factors, applying these to the purchase of ZEVs from 2020 to 2040. Market share and penetration results are presented under eight scenarios, that vary by vehicle costs infrastructure development and incentive strategies. The findings suggest that in the early years, incentives alone may not generate significant market penetration of ZEVs before the infrastructure meets the basic convenience for daily use, especially for fuel cell vehicles (FCVs).