Delineating the Intrinsic, Long-Term Path of Land Degradation: A Spatially Explicit Transition Matrix for Italy, 1960-2010.

Vulnerability to land degradation in southern Europe has increased substantially in the last decades because of climate and land-use change, soil deterioration, and rising human pressure. The present work focuses on a quantitative evaluation of changes over time in the level of vulnerability to land degradation of a Mediterranean country (Italy) using a composite indicator, the environmentally sensitive area index (ESAI), which is the final outcome of a complex model conceived to assess land vulnerability on the basis of climate, soil, vegetation, and human pressure. Considering four different levels of vulnerability to land degradation (not affected, potentially affected, fragile, and critical), the main trajectories of this index were highlighted in a long-time perspective (1960-2010), discriminating dynamics over two sub-periods (1960-1990 and 1990-2010).