The conservation status and population decline of the African penguin deconstructed in space and time.

Understanding changes in abundance is crucial for conservation, but population growth rates often vary over space and time. We use 40 years of count data (1979-2019) and Bayesian state-space models to assess the African penguin population under IUCN Red List Criterion A. We deconstruct the overall decline in time and space to identify where urgent conservation action is needed.