Publications by authors named "Les Oxley"

How have health and social mortality risks changed over time? Evidence from pre-1945 cohorts is sparse, mostly from the United States, and evidence is mixed on long-term changes in the risk of being overweight. We develop a dataset of men entering the NZ army in the two world wars, with objectively measured height and weight, and socioeconomic status in early adulthood. Our sample includes significant numbers of indigenous Māori, providing estimates of weight and mortality risk in an indigenous population.

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The COVID-19 pandemic presented a dynamic black-swan event to which governments implemented support programmes to reduce sectoral probability of default. This research analyses investor response to such assistance, designed to mitigate the effects of the pandemic upon international aviation and tourism. Investor confidence in such support schemes is estimated through short-term abnormal returns.

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Climate change has significantly affected agricultural production. As one of China's most important agricultural production regions, the North China Plain (NCP) is subject to climate change. This paper examines the influence of climate change on the wheat and maize yields at household and village levels, using the multilevel model based on a large panel survey dataset in the NCP.

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We examine the interactions between cryptocurrency price volatility and liquidity during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence suggests that these developing digital products have played a new role as a potential safe-haven during periods of substantial financial market panic. Results suggest that cryptocurrency market liquidity increased significantly after the WHO identification of a worldwide pandemic.

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In this paper, we investigate both constant and time-varying hedge ratios in terms of the effectiveness of CSI300 index futures during the COVID-19 crisis. Using naïve, OLS and EC/ROLS strategies to estimate constant hedge ratios, results indicate that the CSI300 spot index presents decreased effectiveness using the naïve hedging strategy; however, increased effectiveness of OLS and EC hedge ratios are identified. Differential behaviour is identified when considering five newly introduced COVID-19 concept-based stock indices.

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Recent papers that have explored spot and futures markets for Bitcoin have concluded that price discovery takes place in the spot, the futures market. Here, we consider the robustness of previous price discovery conclusions by investigating causal relationships, cointegration and price discovery between spot and futures markets for Bitcoin, using appropriate daily data and time-varying mechanisms. We apply the time-varying Granger causality test of Shi, Phillips, and Hurn [2018]; time-varying cointegration tests of Park and Hahn [1999], and time-varying information share methodologies, concluding that futures prices Granger cause spot prices and that futures prices dominate the price discovery process.

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The circumstances surrounding the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic have generated substantial international political strain as governments attempt to mitigate the widespread associated social and economic repercussions. One theory has focused on the potential for Chinese informational asymmetry. Using Chinese financial market data, we attempt to establish the scale and direction of information flows during multiple distinct phases of the development of the pandemic.

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In the midst of the 2020 global COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent financial market collapse, corporate entities have to navigate a number of truly unforeseen contagion risks. However, one such group included those who shared their corporate identity with aspects of the rapidly evolving coronavirus. Our results indicate the existence of sharp, dynamic and new correlations between companies related to the term 'corona', outside of pre-existing interrelationships.

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Controlling for the polarity and subjectivity of social media data based on the development of the COVID-19 outbreak, we analyse the relationships between the largest cryptocurrencies and such time-varying realisation as to the scale of the economic shock centralised within the rapidly-escalating pandemic. We find evidence of significant growth in both returns and volumes traded, indicating that large cryptocurrencies acted as a store of value during this period of exceptional financial market stress. Further, cryptocurrency returns are found to be significantly influenced by negative sentiment relating to COVID-19.

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The British colonization of New Zealand after 1840 was marked by an unusual concern compared to other settler colonies for incorporating the indigenous population Māori population into the new society. But despite a continuing political rhetoric of protection and sovereignty Māori have historically had lower living standards and, since the 1920s, higher rates of incarceration than European-descended New Zealanders (Pākehā). In this paper we examine differences between Māori and Pākehā over 130 years using prison records.

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