On the decomposition of life expectancy and limits to life.

Life expectancy is a measure of how long people are expected to live and is widely used as a measure of human development. Variations in the measure reflect not only the process of ageing but also the impacts of such events as epidemics, wars, and economic recessions. Since 1950, the influence of these events in the most developed countries has waned and life expectancy continues to lengthen unabated.

Waist-to-height ratio is more predictive of years of life lost than body mass index.

Objective: Our aim was to compare the effect of central obesity (measured by waist-to-height ratio, WHtR) and total obesity (measured by body mass index, BMI) on life expectancy expressed as years of life lost (YLL), using data on British adults.

Methods: A Cox proportional hazards model was applied to data from the prospective Health and Lifestyle Survey (HALS) and the cross sectional Health Survey for England (HSE). The number of years of life lost (YLL) at three ages (30, 50, 70 years) was found by comparing the life expectancies of obese lives with those of lives at optimum levels of BMI and WHtR.

A new method of projecting populations based on trends in life expectancy and survival.

There is increasing concern about the lack of accuracy in population projections at national levels. A common problem has been the systematic underestimation of improvements in mortality, especially at older ages, resulting in projections that are too low. In this paper, we present a method that is based on projecting survivorship rather than mortality, which uses the same data but differs technically.

Impact of asthma on educational attainment in a socioeconomically deprived population: a study linking health, education and social care datasets.

Background: Asthma has the potential to adversely affect children's school examination performance, and hence longer term life chances. Asthma morbidity is especially high amongst UK ethnic minority children and those experiencing social adversity, populations which also have poor educational outcomes. We tested the hypothesis that asthma adversely affects performance in national school examinations in a large cohort from an area of ethnic diversity and social deprivation.

On the effectiveness of care co-ordination services aimed at preventing hospital admissions and emergency attendances.

Finding alternatives to hospital admissions for older people and helping them to live for as long as possible in their own homes is a key objective of UK health and social policy. However, there is a lack of proof as to whether such alternatives actually work and are cost-effective. The research reported in this paper is based on an evaluation of a care co-ordination service with the aim helping people to remain at home and preventing unnecessary hospital admissions and A&E attendances.

Long term care financing in four OECD countries: fiscal burden and distributive effects.

This paper compares long term care (LTC) systems in four OECD countries (UK, Japan, Sweden and Germany). In the UK, provision is means tested, so that out of pocket payments depend on levels of income, savings and assets. In Sweden, where the system is wholly tax-financed, provision is essentially free at the point of use.

Future costs for long-term care: cost projections for long-term care for older people in the United Kingdom.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the future sustainability of the UK system for provision of long-term care (LTC) due to changes in demography and health status among the older people. It considers how demand for LTC will evolve and to what extent there will be sufficient supply to meet demand. For formal care, this requires an estimate of how much the public purses, and hence taxpayers, will be burdened with LTC costs.