Unanticipated Behavioral Consequences of On-demand COVID-19 Testing Policy in US States.

Objectives: During the COVID-19 pandemic, free on-demand testing was promoted in the US. This study was undertaken to support or refute the hypothesis that negative SARS-CoV-2 tests led to travel that exposed travelers to the virus in US states.

Methods: Data on daily trips outside households based on cell phone movement were matched by date to negative tests, positive tests, subsequent COVID-19 cases, and deaths lagged at various intervals in 49 US states during the first 16 months of the pandemic.

Daily motor vehicle traffic volume and other risk factors associated with road deaths in U.S. counties.

Introduction: Road death risk is often characterized as deaths per volume of traffic in geographic regions, the denominator in miles or kilometers supposedly indicative of the magnitude of risk exposure. This paper reports an examination of the differences in the predictive value of factors hypothesized to influence traffic volume and road death risk.

Method: The association of 11 risk factors in U.

Association of COVID-19 mortality with politics and on-demand testing in 217 U.S. counties.

Background: Previous research found increased COVID-19 spread associated with politics and on-demand testing but not in the same study. The objective of this study is to estimate the contribution of each corrected for the other and a variety of known risk factors.

Methods: Using data from 217 U.

Did people's behavior after receiving negative COVID-19 tests contribute to the spread?

Background: Testing on demand for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is hypothesized to increase spread of the virus as some persons who test negative falsely assume that they can engage in activities that increase spread.

Methods: Daily new COVID-19 hospitalization counts through 2020 from 25 countries that reported testing and hospitalizations were studied by regression of logarithms of new hospitalizations 14 days out against log(new hospitalizations on a given day), log(negative tests), log(positivity rate) and days since the first hospitalizations were reported. The regression coefficients were examined separately for periods in countries that were following three different testing policies.

Predictors of COVID-19-Confirmed Cases and Fatalities in 883 US Counties with a Population of 50,000 or More: Estimated Effect of Initial Prevention Policies.

Control of diseases transmitted from person to person may be more effectively and less economically damaging if preventive and ameliorative efforts are focused on the more vulnerable local areas rather than entire countries, provinces, or states. The spread of the COVID-19 virus is highly concentrated in urban US counties. Sixteen factors known or thought to be related to spread of the COVID-19 virus were studied by Poisson regression analysis of confirmed cases and deaths in 883 US counties with a population of 50,000 or more as of May 31, 2020.

Temperature, precipitation, ozone pollution, and daily fatal unintentional injuries in Jiangsu Province, China during 2015-2017.

Background: The correlation of unintentional injury mortality to rising temperatures found in several studies could result from changes in behavior that increases exposure to hazards or risk when exposed. Temperature, precipitation and air pollutants may contribute to symptoms and distractions that increase risk or avoidance behavior that reduces risk. This study examines data that allows estimates of the relation of daily maximum temperature, precipitation and ozone pollution to injury mortality risk, each corrected statistically for the correlation with the others.

Science and public health principles used to reduce road deaths.

An editorial in a previous issue of this journal falsely claims that the US government's efforts to reduce road fatalities are not based on science. It says that, as a result, the United States has fallen behind other countries in road death prevention. A large body of research and evaluation informed federal and state safety programs from the outset.

Prevention of motor-vehicle deaths by changing vehicle factors.

Objective: To estimate the effect of changing vehicle factors to reduce mortality in a comprehensive study. Design/

Methods: Odds of death in the United States during 2000-2005 were analyzed, involving specific makes and models of 1999-2005 model year cars, minivans, and sport utility vehicles using logistic regression after selection of factors to be included by examination of least-squares correlations of vehicle factors to maximize independence of predictors. Based on the regression coefficients, percentages of deaths preventable by changes in selected factors were calculated.

Blood and oil: vehicle characteristics in relation to fatality risk and fuel economy.

I examined the potential for a lower risk of death compatible with increased fuel economy among 67 models of 1999-2002 model year cars, vans, and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) during the calendar years 2000 to 2004. The odds of death for drivers and all persons killed in vehicle collisions were related to vehicle weight, size, stability, and crashworthiness. I calculated that fatality rates would have been 28% lower and fuel use would have been reduced by 16% if vehicle weights had been reduced to the weight of vehicles with the lowest weight per size, where size is measured by the lateral distance needed to perform a 180-degree turn.

Motor vehicle deaths: failed policy analysis and neglected policy.

The author of a recent book inferred that the slowed decline in U.S. vehicle fatality rates in the 1990 s relative to other industrialized countries resulted from too much emphasis on vehicle factors.