Modelling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on stroke mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa.

Background: Stroke poses a growing human and economic burden in South Africa. Excess sugar consumption, especially from sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), has been associated with increased obesity and stroke risk. Research shows that price increases for SSBs can influence consumption and modelling evidence suggests that taxing SSBs has the potential to reduce obesity and related diseases.

Cost of inaction on sugar-sweetened beverage consumption: implications for obesity in South Africa.

Objective: To estimate the effect of increased sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption on future adult obesity prevalence in South Africa in the absence of preventive measures.

Design: A model was constructed to simulate the effect of a 2·4 % annual increase in SSB consumption on obesity prevalence. The model computed the change in energy intake assuming a compounding increase in SSB consumption.

Lost productive life years caused by chronic conditions in Australians aged 45-64 years, 2010-2030.

Objectives: To estimate (1) productive life years (PLYs) lost because of chronic conditions in Australians aged 45-64 years from 2010 to 2030, and (2) the impact of this loss on gross domestic product (GDP) over the same period.

Design, Setting And Participants: A microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, was used to project lost PLYs caused by chronic conditions from 2010 to 2030. The base population consisted of respondents aged 45-64 years to the Australian Bureau of Statistics Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2003 and 2009.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Background: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.

Determinants of Obesity and Associated Population Attributability, South Africa: Empirical Evidence from a National Panel Survey, 2008-2012.

Background: Obesity is a major risk factor for emerging non-communicable diseases (NCDS) in middle income countries including South Africa (SA). Understanding the multiple and complex determinants of obesity and their true population attributable impact is critical for informing and developing effective prevention efforts using scientific based evidence. This study identified contextualised high impact factors associated with obesity in South Africa.

The potential impact of a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages on obesity in South African adults: a mathematical model.

Background/objectives: The prevalence of obesity in South Africa has risen sharply, as has the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Research shows that consumption of SSBs leads to weight gain in both adults and children, and reducing SSBs will significantly impact the prevalence of obesity and its related diseases. We estimated the effect of a 20% tax on SSBs on the prevalence of and obesity among adults in South Africa.

Generalized Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Pharmaceutical Interventions for Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in Thailand.

Objectives: To assess the cost-effectiveness of blood pressure (BP)-lowering and cholesterol-lowering drugs for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention.

Methods: We constructed a Markov model in which the Thai population was classified by 10-year absolute CVD risk and modeled the use of BP- and cholesterol-lowering drugs, including a "polypill" (three BP-lowering drugs and a statin). We applied "do-nothing" as the comparator, a health sector perspective on lifetime cost-effectiveness, 3% discounting of costs and effects, and used probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

The national burden of road traffic injuries in Thailand.

Background: This study quantifies the burden of road traffic injuries (RTIs) in Thailand in 2004, incorporating new Thai data on mortality and the frequency and severity of long-term disability.

Methods: We quantified the uncertainty around national RTI mortality estimates based on a verbal autopsy study that was conducted to correct for the large proportion of ill-defined deaths in the vital registration system. The number of nonfatal RTI victims was estimated using hospital and survey data.