Calibration and Validation of the Colorectal Cancer and Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) Microsimulation Model Using Deep Neural Networks.

Objectives: Machine learning (ML)-based emulators improve the calibration of decision-analytical models, but their performance in complex microsimulation models is yet to be determined.

Methods: We demonstrated the use of an ML-based emulator with the Colorectal Cancer (CRC)-Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) model, which includes 23 unknown natural history input parameters to replicate the CRC epidemiology in the United States. We first generated 15,000 input combinations and ran the CRC-AIM model to evaluate CRC incidence, adenoma size distribution, and the percentage of small adenoma detected by colonoscopy.

Impact of the Sessile Serrated Polyp Pathway on Predicted Colorectal Cancer Outcomes.

Background And Aims: Approximately 20%-30% of colorectal cancers (CRCs) arise from the serrated polyp pathway. CRC screening options have differential sensitivity to detect sessile serrated polyps (SSPs). We used the Colorectal Cancer and Adenoma Incidence and Mortality Microsimulation Model (CRC-AIM) to assess how the detection of SSPs impacts predicted life years gained (LYG), CRC incidence, and CRC mortality with multitarget stool DNA (mt-sDNA) or fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening.

Life-years gained resulting from screening colonoscopy compared with follow-up colonoscopy after a positive stool-based colorectal screening test.

Screening colonoscopies for colorectal cancer (CRC) are typically covered without patient cost-sharing, whereas follow-up colonoscopies for positive stool-based screening tests often incur patient costs. The objective of this analysis was to estimate and compare the life-years gained (LYG) per average-risk screening colonoscopy and follow-up colonoscopy after a positive stool-based test to better inform CRC coverage policy and reimbursement decisions. CRC outcomes from screening and follow-up colonoscopies versus no screening were estimated using CRC-AIM in a simulated population of average-risk individuals screened between ages 45-75 years.

Impact of Patient Adherence to Stool-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening and Colonoscopy Following a Positive Test on Clinical Outcomes.

Colorectal cancer-screening models commonly assume 100% adherence, which is inconsistent with real-world experience. The influence of adherence to initial stool-based screening [fecal immunochemical test (FIT), multitarget stool DNA (mt-sDNA)] and follow-up colonoscopy (after a positive stool test) on colorectal cancer outcomes was modeled using the Colorectal Cancer and Adenoma Incidence and Mortality Microsimulation Model. Average-risk individuals without diagnosed colorectal cancer at age 40 undergoing annual FIT or triennial mt-sDNA screening from ages 50 to 75 were simulated.

Lowering the colorectal cancer screening age improves predicted outcomes in a microsimulation model.

Aims: While most guidelines still recommend colorectal cancer (CRC) screening initiation at age 50 years in average-risk individuals, guideline-creating bodies are starting to lower the recommended age of initiation to 45 years to mitigate the trend of increasing CRC rates in younger populations. Using CRC-AIM, we modeled the impact of lowering the CRC screening initiation age, incorporating theoretical and reported adherence rates, for triennial multi-target stool DNA (mt-sDNA) or annual fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening.

Methods And Materials: Screening strategies were simulated for individuals without CRC at age 40 and screened from ages 50 to 75 or 45 to 75 years.

Estimating the impact of differential adherence on the comparative effectiveness of stool-based colorectal cancer screening using the CRC-AIM microsimulation model.

Background: Real-world adherence to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening strategies is imperfect. The CRC-AIM microsimulation model was used to estimate the impact of imperfect adherence on the relative benefits and burdens of guideline-endorsed, stool-based screening strategies.

Methods: Predicted outcomes of multi-target stool DNA (mt-sDNA), fecal immunochemical tests (FIT), and high-sensitivity guaiac-based fecal occult blood tests (HSgFOBT) were simulated for 40-year-olds free of diagnosed CRC.

Impact of screening and follow-up colonoscopy adenoma sensitivity on colorectal cancer screening outcomes in the CRC-AIM microsimulation model.

Background: Real-world data for patients with positive colorectal cancer (CRC) screening stool-tests demonstrate that adenoma detection rates are lower when endoscopists are blinded to the stool-test results. This suggests adenoma sensitivity may be lower for screening colonoscopy than for follow-up to a known positive stool-based test. Previous CRC microsimulation models assume identical sensitivities between screening and follow-up colonoscopies after positive stool-tests.