Applying infectious disease forecasting to public health: a path forward using influenza forecasting examples.

Background: Infectious disease forecasting aims to predict characteristics of both seasonal epidemics and future pandemics. Accurate and timely infectious disease forecasts could aid public health responses by informing key preparation and mitigation efforts.

Main Body: For forecasts to be fully integrated into public health decision-making, federal, state, and local officials must understand how forecasts were made, how to interpret forecasts, and how well the forecasts have performed in the past.

Provider and Public Health Adaptation to Changing Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Guidance for Zika Virus, 2015-2017.

In 2015, Harris County (Texas) Public Health responded to the Zika virus (ZIKV) threat by investigating every report of potential ZIKV infection, including those with negative laboratory results, through December 2017. Before investigations, 40.6% of patients who were indicated for testing received it in accordance with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines.

Influenza A (H3) Outbreak at a Hurricane Harvey Megashelter in Harris County, Texas: Successes and Challenges in Disease Identification and Control Measure Implementation.

ABSTRACTWhen Hurricane Harvey landed along the Texas coast on August 25, 2017, it caused massive flooding and damage and displaced tens of thousands of residents of Harris County, Texas. Between August 29 and September 23, Harris County, along with community partners, operated a megashelter at NRG Center, which housed 3365 residents at its peak. Harris County Public Health conducted comprehensive public health surveillance and response at NRG, which comprised disease identification through daily medical record reviews, nightly "cot-to-cot" resident health surveys, and epidemiological consultations; messaging and communications; and implementation of control measures including stringent isolation and hygiene practices, vaccinations, and treatment.

Do people become better prepared in the aftermath of a natural disaster? The hurricane Ike experience in Houston, Texas.

Objective: Despite large-scale efforts and expensive public education campaigns mounted by the government at all levels in the past decade, the improvements in disaster preparedness among the US Gulf Coast residents have been ineffectual at best. Some factors that contribute to better preparedness are past experience, awareness of what to do in a disaster scenario and availability, and access to informational and supportive resources. We examine whether an experience of a natural disaster brings about changes in preparedness and access to resources.