Divergent trajectories of Arctic change: Implications for future socio-economic patterns.

Climate change is causing rapid warming in the Arctic, which, alongside other physical, socio-economic, cultural, geopolitical, and technological factors, is driving change in the far north. This research presents a conceptual model summarizing Arctic change factors which in turn was used in the design of a Delphi exercise which leveraged a variety of experts to forecast trajectories in different parts of the Arctic. Based on these experts' expectations for economic and governance outcomes by 2050, we find that our results illustrate the "many Arctics" concept or some of the ways in which the Arctic is heterogenous now, and perhaps becoming increasingly so in the future.

The metacoupled Arctic: Human-nature interactions across local to global scales as drivers of sustainability.

The Arctic is an epicenter of complex environmental and socioeconomic change. Strengthened connections between Arctic and non-Arctic systems could threaten or enhance Arctic sustainability, but studies of external influences on the Arctic are scattered and fragmented in academic literature. Here, we review and synthesize how external influences have been analyzed in Arctic-coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) literature.