Filter-feeding gelatinous macrozooplankton response to climate change and implications for benthic food supply and global carbon cycle.

It is often suggested that gelatinous zooplankton may benefit from anthropogenic pressures of all kinds and in particular from climate change. Large pelagic tunicates, for example, are likely to be favored over other types of macrozooplankton due to their filter-feeding mode, which gives them access to small preys thought to be less affected by climate change than larger preys. In this study, we provide model-based estimate of potential community changes in macrozooplankton composition and estimate for the first time their effects on benthic food supply and on the ocean carbon cycle under two 21st-century climate-change scenarios.

High trophic level feedbacks on global ocean carbon uptake and marine ecosystem dynamics under climate change.

Despite recurrent emphasis on their ecological and economic roles, the importance of high trophic levels (HTLs) on ocean carbon dynamics, through passive (fecal pellet production, carcasses) and active (vertical migration) processes, is still largely unexplored, notably under climate change scenarios. In addition, HTLs impact the ecosystem dynamics through top-down effects on lower trophic levels, which might change under anthropogenic influence. Here we compare two simulations of a global biogeochemical-ecosystem model with and without feedbacks from large marine animals.

Evidence that Pacific tuna mercury levels are driven by marine methylmercury production and anthropogenic inputs.

Pacific Ocean tuna is among the most-consumed seafood products but contains relatively high levels of the neurotoxin methylmercury. Limited observations suggest tuna mercury levels vary in space and time, yet the drivers are not well understood. Here, we map mercury concentrations in skipjack tuna across the Pacific Ocean and build generalized additive models to quantify the anthropogenic, ecological, and biogeochemical drivers.

Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems.

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario.

Impact of intensifying nitrogen limitation on ocean net primary production is fingerprinted by nitrogen isotopes.

The open ocean nitrogen cycle is being altered by increases in anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen deposition and climate change. How the nitrogen cycle responds will determine long-term trends in net primary production (NPP) in the nitrogen-limited low latitude ocean, but is poorly constrained by uncertainty in how the source-sink balance will evolve. Here we show that intensifying nitrogen limitation of phytoplankton, associated with near-term reductions in NPP, causes detectable declines in nitrogen isotopes (δN) and constitutes the primary perturbation of the 21 century nitrogen cycle.

Around one third of current Arctic Ocean primary production sustained by rivers and coastal erosion.

Net primary production (NPP) is the foundation of the oceans' ecosystems and the fisheries they support. In the Arctic Ocean, NPP is controlled by a complex interplay of light and nutrients supplied by upwelling as well as lateral inflows from adjacent oceans and land. But so far, the role of the input from land by rivers and coastal erosion has not been given much attention.

A comprehensive quantification of global nitrous oxide sources and sinks.

Nitrous oxide (NO), like carbon dioxide, is a long-lived greenhouse gas that accumulates in the atmosphere. Over the past 150 years, increasing atmospheric NO concentrations have contributed to stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change, with the current rate of increase estimated at 2 per cent per decade. Existing national inventories do not provide a full picture of NO emissions, owing to their omission of natural sources and limitations in methodology for attributing anthropogenic sources.

An iron cycle cascade governs the response of equatorial Pacific ecosystems to climate change.

Earth System Models project that global climate change will reduce ocean net primary production (NPP), upper trophic level biota biomass and potential fisheries catches in the future, especially in the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, projections from Earth System Models are undermined by poorly constrained assumptions regarding the biological cycling of iron, which is the main limiting resource for NPP over large parts of the ocean. In this study, we show that the climate change trends in NPP and the biomass of upper trophic levels are strongly affected by modifying assumptions associated with phytoplankton iron uptake.

Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6.

Purpose Of Review: The changes or updates in ocean biogeochemistry component have been mapped between CMIP5 and CMIP6 model versions, and an assessment made of how far these have led to improvements in the simulated mean state of marine biogeochemical models within the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs).

Recent Findings: The representation of marine biogeochemistry has progressed within the current generation of Earth system models. However, it remains difficult to identify which model updates are responsible for a given improvement.

Emergent constraint on Arctic Ocean acidification in the twenty-first century.

The ongoing uptake of anthropogenic carbon by the ocean leads to ocean acidification, a process that results in a reduction in pH and in the saturation state of biogenic calcium carbonate minerals aragonite (Ω) and calcite (Ω). Because of its naturally low Ω and Ω (refs. ), the Arctic Ocean is considered the region most susceptible to future acidification and associated ecosystem impacts.

Global Trends in Marine Plankton Diversity across Kingdoms of Life.

The ocean is home to myriad small planktonic organisms that underpin the functioning of marine ecosystems. However, their spatial patterns of diversity and the underlying drivers remain poorly known, precluding projections of their responses to global changes. Here we investigate the latitudinal gradients and global predictors of plankton diversity across archaea, bacteria, eukaryotes, and major virus clades using both molecular and imaging data from Tara Oceans.

Trends in tuna carbon isotopes suggest global changes in pelagic phytoplankton communities.

Considerable uncertainty remains over how increasing atmospheric CO and anthropogenic climate changes are affecting open-ocean marine ecosystems from phytoplankton to top predators. Biological time series data are thus urgently needed for the world's oceans. Here, we use the carbon stable isotope composition of tuna to provide a first insight into the existence of global trends in complex ecosystem dynamics and changes in the oceanic carbon cycle.

Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change.

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web.

Consistent trophic amplification of marine biomass declines under climate change.

The impact of climate change on the marine food web is highly uncertain. Nonetheless, there is growing consensus that global marine primary production will decline in response to future climate change, largely due to increased stratification reducing the supply of nutrients to the upper ocean. Evidence to date suggests a potential amplification of this response throughout the trophic food web, with more dramatic responses at higher trophic levels.

Global forest carbon uptake due to nitrogen and phosphorus deposition from 1850 to 2100.

Spatial patterns and temporal trends of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) deposition are important for quantifying their impact on forest carbon (C) uptake. In a first step, we modeled historical and future change in the global distributions of the atmospheric deposition of N and P from the dry and wet deposition of aerosols and gases containing N and P. Future projections were compared between two scenarios with contrasting aerosol emissions.

Influence of anthropogenic aerosol deposition on the relationship between oceanic productivity and warming.

Satellite data and models suggest that oceanic productivity is reduced in response to less nutrient supply under warming. In contrast, anthropogenic aerosols provide nutrients and exert a fertilizing effect, but its contribution to evolution of oceanic productivity is unknown. We simulate the response of oceanic biogeochemistry to anthropogenic aerosols deposition under varying climate from 1850 to 2010.

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity.

With the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. However, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, pH, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. Among these, the net primary productivity (NPP) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective.

Spatial and body-size dependent response of marine pelagic communities to projected global climate change.

Temperature, oxygen, and food availability directly affect marine life. Climate models project a global warming of the ocean's surface (~+3 °C), a de-oxygenation of the ocean's interior (~-3%) and a decrease in total marine net primary production (~-8%) under the 'business as usual' climate change scenario (RCP8.5).

Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean.

Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification.

Projecting the impacts of climate change on skipjack tuna abundance and spatial distribution.

Climate-induced changes in the physical, chemical, and biological environment are expected to increasingly stress marine ecosystems, with important consequences for fisheries exploitation. Here, we use the APECOSM-E numerical model (Apex Predator ECOSystem Model - Estimation) to evaluate the future impacts of climate change on the physiology, spatial distribution, and abundance of skipjack tuna, the worldwide most fished species of tropical tuna. The main novelties of our approach lie in the mechanistic link between environmental factors, metabolic rates, and behavioral responses and in the fully three dimensional representation of habitat and population abundance.

Human-induced nitrogen-phosphorus imbalances alter natural and managed ecosystems across the globe.

The availability of carbon from rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and of nitrogen from various human-induced inputs to ecosystems is continuously increasing; however, these increases are not paralleled by a similar increase in phosphorus inputs. The inexorable change in the stoichiometry of carbon and nitrogen relative to phosphorus has no equivalent in Earth's history. Here we report the profound and yet uncertain consequences of the human imprint on the phosphorus cycle and nitrogen:phosphorus stoichiometry for the structure, functioning and diversity of terrestrial and aquatic organisms and ecosystems.