Characterizing risk factors for infection of Mycobacterium bovis between wild pigs and domestic cattle from an outbreak response - California, 1961-1967.

In the United States (US), a national control program from bovine tuberculosis (bTB) has been successful at greatly reducing the incidence of Mycobacterium bovis infection in domestic cattle and mitigating exposure to humans. However, experience in many countries, including the US, has demonstrated that eradication of animal tuberculosis (TB) from wildlife can complicate disease control programs. Wild pigs may serve as an important maintenance species for TB, contributing to outbreaks in cattle and hampering disease control programs.

Forecasting Hepatitis C Virus Status for Children in the United States: A Modeling Study.

Background: Virtually all cases of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in children in the United States occur through vertical transmission, but it is unknown how many children are infected. Cases of maternal HCV infection have increased in the United States, which may increase the number of children vertically infected with HCV. Infection has long-term consequences for a child's health, but treatment options are now available for children ≥3 years old.

Characterizing the seasonal abundance and reproductive activity of overwintering Anopheles (Diptera: Culicidae) mosquitoes.

In temperate regions of the United States, female Anopheles mosquitoes respond to low temperatures and short photoperiods by entering an overwintering dormancy or diapause. Diapause in Anopheles results in reduced frequency of blood-feeding and reproductive arrest, indicating a period when pathogen transmission by these mosquitoes is unlikely. However, it is unclear precisely how late into the fall and how early in the spring these mosquitoes are biting, reproducing, and potentially transmitting pathogens.

Mumps epidemic dynamics in the United States before vaccination (1923-1932).

Mumps is a vaccine-preventable, reemerging, and highly transmissible infectious disease. Widespread vaccination dramatically reduced cases; however, case counts have been increasing over the past 20 years. To provide a quantitative overview of historical mumps dynamics that can act as baseline information to help identify causes of mumps reemergence, we analyzed timeseries of cases reported from 1923 to 1932 in the United States.

Characterizing seasonal changes in the reproductive activity of Culex mosquitoes throughout the fall, winter, and spring in Ohio.

Background: Culex mosquitoes are the primary vectors of West Nile virus (WNV) across the USA. Understanding when these vectors are active indicates times when WNV transmission can occur. This study determined the proportion of female Culex mosquitoes that were in diapause during the fall and winter and when they terminated diapause and began blood feeding in the spring.

Quantifying intra- and inter-species contact rates at supplemental feeding sites in Ethiopia to inform rabies maintenance potential of multiple host species.

Rabies, a multi-host pathogen responsible for the loss of roughly 59,000 human lives each year worldwide, continues to impose a significant burden of disease despite control efforts, especially in Ethiopia. However, how species other than dogs contribute to rabies transmission throughout Ethiopia remains largely unknown. In this study, we quantified interactions among wildlife species in Ethiopia with the greatest potential for contributing to rabies maintenance.

Critical Photoperiod and Its Potential to Predict Mosquito Distributions and Control Medically Important Pests.

Diapause, a period of arrested development that allows mosquitoes to survive inhospitable conditions, is triggered by short daylengths in temperate mosquitoes. Different populations of mosquitoes initiate diapause in response to a specific photoperiod, or daylength, resulting in population-specific differences in annual cycles of abundance. The photoperiod that causes approximately 50% of a population to initiate diapause is known as the critical photoperiod (CPP).

Multiple urban stressors drive fish-based ecological networks in streams of Columbus, Ohio, USA.

Integrating a network perspective into multiple-stressor research can reveal indirect stressor effects and simultaneously estimate both taxonomic and functional community characteristics, thus representing a novel approach to stressor paradigms in rivers. Using six years of data from twelve streams of Columbus, Ohio, USA, the effects of nutrients (N:P), impervious surface (%IS), and sedimentation on network properties were quantified. Variability in the strength and distribution of trophic interactions was assessed by incorporating biomass into networks.

Forecasting Prevalence of HIV-1 Integrase Strand Transfer Inhibitor (INSTI) Drug Resistance: A Modeling Study.

Background: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is a cornerstone of HIV-1 treatment and provides significant health benefits for patients with responsive HIV-1 strains. Integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) are the newest class of ART. Although most HIV-1 cases are responsive, a small number are already resistant.

Network analyses to quantify effects of host movement in multilevel disease transmission models using foot and mouth disease in Cameroon as a case study.

The dynamics of infectious diseases are greatly influenced by the movement of both susceptible and infected hosts. To accurately represent disease dynamics among a mobile host population, detailed movement models have been coupled with disease transmission models. However, a number of different host movement models have been proposed, each with their own set of assumptions and results that differ from the other models.

Network analyses of transhumance movements and simulations of foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission among mobile livestock in Cameroon.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) affects cloven-hoofed livestock and agricultural economies worldwide. Analyses of the 2001 FMD outbreak in the United Kingdom informed how livestock movement contributed to disease spread. However, livestock reared in other locations use different production systems that might also influence disease dynamics.

Modeling the role of carrier and mobile herds on foot-and-mouth disease virus endemicity in the Far North Region of Cameroon.

Foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) is an RNA virus that infects cloven-hoofed animals, often produces either epidemic or endemic conditions, and negatively affects agricultural economies worldwide. FMDV epidemic dynamics have been extensively studied, but understanding of drivers of disease persistence in areas in which FMDV is endemic, such as most of sub-Saharan Africa, is lacking. We present a spatial stochastic model of disease dynamics that incorporates a spatial transmission kernel in a modified Gillespie algorithm, and use it to evaluate two hypothesized drivers of endemicity: asymptomatic carriers and the movement of mobile herds.

Host species heterogeneity in the epidemiology of Nesopora caninum.

Pathogen transmission across species drives disease emergence; however, mechanisms by which multi-host pathogens cross species boundaries are not well identified. This knowledge gap prevents integrated and targeted control in an epidemiologically continuous ecosystem. Our goal is to describe the impact of host species heterogeneity on the epidemiology of Neospora caninum circulating between livestock and wildlife in southeastern Ohio.

Phylogenetic visualization of the spread of H7 influenza A viruses.

Viruses of influenza A subtype H7 can be highly pathogenic and periodically infect humans. For example, there have been numerous outbreaks of H7 in the Americas and Europe since 1996. More recently, a reassortant H7N9 has emerged among humans and birds during 2013-2014 in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Serotype-Specific Transmission and Waning Immunity of Endemic Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Cameroon.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) causes morbidity and mortality in a range of animals and threatens local economies by acting as a barrier to international trade. The outbreak in the United Kingdom in 2001 that cost billions to control highlighted the risk that the pathogen poses to agriculture. In response, several mathematical models have been developed to parameterize and predict both transmission dynamics and optimal disease control.

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Pastoral Mobility in the Far North Region, Cameroon: Data Analysis and Modeling.

Modeling the movements of humans and animals is critical to understanding the transmission of infectious diseases in complex social and ecological systems. In this paper, we focus on the movements of pastoralists in the Far North Region of Cameroon, who follow an annual transhumance by moving between rainy and dry season pastures. Describing, summarizing, and modeling the transhumance movements in the region are important steps for understanding the role these movements may play in the transmission of infectious diseases affecting humans and animals.

Analysis and visualization of H7 influenza using genomic, evolutionary and geographic information in a modular web service.

We have reported previously on use of a web-based application, Supramap (http://supramap.org) for the study of biogeographic, genotypic, and phenotypic evolution. Using Supramap we have developed maps of the spread of drug-resistant influenza and host shifts in H1N1 and H5N1 influenza and coronaviruses such as SARS.

Reassortment Networks and the evolution of pandemic H1N1 swine-origin influenza.

Prior research developed Reassortment Networks to reconstruct the evolution of segmented viruses under both reassortment and mutation. We report their application to the swine-origin pandemic H1N1 virus (S-OIV). A database of all influenza A viruses, for which complete genome sequences were available in Genbank by October 2009, was created and dynamic programming was used to compute distances between all corresponding segments.

Pathogens, social networks, and the paradox of transmission scaling.

Understanding the scaling of transmission is critical to predicting how infectious diseases will affect populations of different sizes and densities. The two classic "mean-field" epidemic models-either assuming density-dependent or frequency-dependent transmission-make predictions that are discordant with patterns seen in either within-population dynamics or across-population comparisons. In this paper, we propose that the source of this inconsistency lies in the greatly simplifying "mean-field" assumption of transmission within a fully-mixed population.

Stage-structured transmission of phocine distemper virus in the Dutch 2002 outbreak.

Heterogeneities in transmission among hosts can be very important in shaping infectious disease dynamics. In mammals with strong social organization, such heterogeneities are often structured by functional stage: juveniles, subadults and adults. We investigate the importance of such stage-related heterogeneities in shaping the 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) outbreak in the Dutch Wadden Sea, when more than 40 per cent of the harbour seals were killed.

The evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of the paramyxoviridae.

Paramyxoviruses are responsible for considerable disease burden in human and wildlife populations: measles and mumps continue to affect the health of children worldwide, while canine distemper virus causes serious morbidity and mortality in a wide range of mammalian species. Although these viruses have been studied extensively at both the epidemiological and the phylogenetic scales, little has been done to integrate these two types of data. Using a Bayesian coalescent approach, we infer the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of measles, mumps and canine distemper viruses.