An early warning system to predict and mitigate wheat rust diseases in Ethiopia.

Wheat rust diseases pose one of the greatest threats to global food security, including subsistence farmers in Ethiopia. The fungal spores transmitting wheat rust are dispersed by wind and can remain infectious after dispersal over long distances. The emergence of new strains of wheat rust has exacerbated the risks of severe crop loss.

Long-term shifts in the seasonal abundance of adult biting midges and their impact on potential arbovirus outbreaks.

Surveillance of adult biting midge flight activity is used as an applied ecological method to guide the management of arbovirus incursions on livestock production in Europe and Australia.To date the impact of changes in the phenology of adult vector activity on arbovirus transmission has not been defined. We investigated this at two sites in the UK, identifying 150,000 biting midges taken from 2867 collections over a nearly 40 year timescale.

Microsatellite Analysis and Urediniospore Dispersal Simulations Support the Movement of Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici from Southern Africa to Australia.

The Australian wheat stem rust (Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici) population was shaped by the introduction of four exotic incursions into the country.

Combining dispersion modelling with synoptic patterns to understand the wind-borne transport into the UK of the bluetongue disease vector.

Bluetongue, an economically important animal disease, can be spread over long distances by carriage of insect vectors (Culicoides biting midges) on the wind. The weather conditions which influence the midge's flight are controlled by synoptic scale atmospheric circulations. A method is proposed that links wind-borne dispersion of the insects to synoptic circulation through the use of a dispersion model in combination with principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis.

Range expansion of the Bluetongue vector, Culicoides imicola, in continental France likely due to rare wind-transport events.

The role of the northward expansion of Culicoides imicola Kieffer in recent and unprecedented outbreaks of Culicoides-borne arboviruses in southern Europe has been a significant point of contention. We combined entomological surveys, movement simulations of air-borne particles, and population genetics to reconstruct the chain of events that led to a newly colonized French area nestled at the northern foot of the Pyrenees. Simulating the movement of air-borne particles evidenced frequent wind-transport events allowing, within at most 36 hours, the immigration of midges from north-eastern Spain and Balearic Islands, and, as rare events, their immigration from Corsica.

Phenotypic and Genotypic Characterization of Race TKTTF of Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici that Caused a Wheat Stem Rust Epidemic in Southern Ethiopia in 2013-14.

A severe stem rust epidemic occurred in southern Ethiopia during November 2013 to January 2014, with yield losses close to 100% on the most widely grown wheat cultivar, 'Digalu'. Sixty-four stem rust samples collected from the regions were analyzed. A meteorological model for airborne spore dispersal was used to identify which regions were most likely to have been infected from postulated sites of initial infection.

Seasonal migration to high latitudes results in major reproductive benefits in an insect.

Little is known of the population dynamics of long-range insect migrants, and it has been suggested that the annual journeys of billions of nonhardy insects to exploit temperate zones during summer represent a sink from which future generations seldom return (the "Pied Piper" effect). We combine data from entomological radars and ground-based light traps to show that annual migrations are highly adaptive in the noctuid moth Autographa gamma (silver Y), a major agricultural pest. We estimate that 10-240 million immigrants reach the United Kingdom each spring, but that summer breeding results in a fourfold increase in the abundance of the subsequent generation of adults, all of which emigrate southward in the fall.

A new algorithm quantifies the roles of wind and midge flight activity in the bluetongue epizootic in northwest Europe.

The 2006 bluetongue (BT) outbreak in northwestern Europe had devastating effects on cattle and sheep in that intensively farmed area. The role of wind in disease spread, through its effect on Culicoides dispersal, is still uncertain, and remains unquantified. We examine here the relationship between farm-level infection dates and wind speed and direction within the framework of a novel model involving both mechanistic and stochastic steps.

Assessing the consequences of an incursion of a vector-borne disease I. Identifying feasible incursion scenarios for bluetongue in Scotland.

Following the arrival of bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in southeast England in September 2007, the Scottish Government commissioned research to assess the economic consequences of a BTV-8 incursion to Scotland. Here we present the first component of the assessment, which entailed identifying feasible incursion scenarios for the virus. Our analyses focused on three routes of introduction: wind-borne dispersal of infected vectors, import of infected animals and northwards spread of BTV from affected areas in GB.

Impacts of climate change on indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals from agriculture.

Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens/ chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. We assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens/chemicals in agricultural systems in the UK and discuss the effects on health impacts, using expert input and literature on climate change; health effects from exposure to pathogens/chemicals arising from agriculture; inputs of chemicals/pathogens to agricultural systems; and human exposure pathways for pathogens/chemicals in agricultural systems. We established the evidence base for health effects of chemicals/pathogens in the agricultural environment; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical/pathogen inputs in agricultural systems; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of various contaminants.

Impacts of climate change on indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals from agriculture.

Objective: Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts.

Airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease--model intercomparison.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) spreads by direct contact between animals, by animal products (milk, meat and semen), by mechanical transfer on people or fomites and by the airborne route, with the relative importance of each mechanism depending on the particular outbreak characteristics. Atmospheric dispersion models have been developed to assess airborne spread of FMDV in a number of countries, including the UK, Denmark, Australia, New Zealand, USA and Canada. These models were compared at a Workshop hosted by the Institute for Animal Health/Met Office in 2008.

Predicting infection risk of airborne foot-and-mouth disease.

Foot-and-mouth disease is a highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals, the control and eradication of which is of significant worldwide socio-economic importance. The virus may spread by direct contact between animals or via fomites as well as through airborne transmission, with the latter being the most difficult to control. Here, we consider the risk of infection to flocks or herds from airborne virus emitted from a known infected premises.