Rational policymaking during a pandemic.

Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, we argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process.

Robust identification of investor beliefs.

This paper develops a method informed by data and models to recover information about investor beliefs. Our approach uses information embedded in forward-looking asset prices in conjunction with asset pricing models. We step back from presuming rational expectations and entertain potential belief distortions bounded by a statistical measure of discrepancy.

Aversion to ambiguity and model misspecification in dynamic stochastic environments.

Preferences that accommodate aversion to subjective uncertainty and its potential misspecification in dynamic settings are a valuable tool of analysis in many disciplines. By generalizing previous analyses, we propose a tractable approach to incorporating broadly conceived responses to uncertainty. We illustrate our approach on some stylized stochastic environments.

Recursive utility in a Markov environment with stochastic growth.

Recursive utility models that feature investor concerns about the intertemporal composition of risk are used extensively in applied research in macroeconomics and asset pricing. These models represent preferences as the solution to a nonlinear forward-looking difference equation with a terminal condition. In this paper we study infinite-horizon specifications of this difference equation in the context of a Markov environment.

[Prevalence of coeliac disease (CD) in children with type 1 diabetes (T1D)].

This screening study was performed to determine the prevalence of coeliac disease (CD) in children with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and to estimate the clinical effects of a gluten-free diet. In the region of Southern Denmark all patients under 16 years of age with T1D were identified and 269 (89%) were included. CD was diagnosed in 33 (12.