Retrospective comparisons of competing demographic models give clarity from "messy" management on a Scottish grouse moor.

Retrospective comparison of predictive models that describe competing hypotheses regarding system function can shed light on regulatory mechanisms within the framework of adaptive resource management. We applied this approach to a 28-year study of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scotica) in Scotland, with the aims of reducing uncertainty regarding important drivers of grouse population dynamics, and of evaluating the efficacy of using seasonal versus annual model assessments. We developed three sets of models that predicted pre-breeding and post-breeding grouse density, matching the timing of grouse counts on the ground.

Visualizing social-ecological intensities for management of recreation visitors in a multiuse system.

Accounting for the variation of visitor conflicts and ecological disturbance of outdoor recreation activities across space and time can cause difficulty for managers seeking to make decisions in social-ecological systems (SESs). We develop a method to quantify and visualize social and ecological intensities resulting from outdoor recreation. We demonstrate the utility of our method at Valentine National Wildlife Refuge, where we conducted onsite surveys for an entire year of recreationists participating in consumptive (i.

Fire legacies in eastern ponderosa pine forests.

Disturbance legacies structure communities and ecological memory, but due to increasing changes in disturbance regimes, it is becoming more difficult to characterize disturbance legacies or determine how long they persist. We sought to quantify the characteristics and persistence of material legacies (e.g.

The perpetual state of emergency that sacrifices protected areas in a changing climate.

A modern challenge for conservation biology is to assess the consequences of policies that adhere to assumptions of stationarity (e.g., historic norms) in an era of global environmental change.

Present and future thermal environments available to Sharp-tailed Grouse in an intact grassland.

Better understanding animal ecology in terms of thermal habitat use has become a focus of ecological studies, in large part due to the predicted temperature increases associated with global climate change. To further our knowledge on how ground-nesting endotherms respond to thermal landscapes, we examined the thermal ecology of Sharp-tailed Grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus) during the nesting period. We measured site-specific iButton temperatures (TiB) and vegetation characteristics at nest sites, nearby random sites, and landscape sites to assess thermal patterns at scales relevant to nesting birds.

Assessing landscape constraints on species abundance: does the neighborhood limit species response to local habitat conservation programs?

Landscapes in agricultural systems continue to undergo significant change, and the loss of biodiversity is an ever-increasing threat. Although habitat restoration is beneficial, management actions do not always result in the desired outcome. Managers must understand why management actions fail; yet, past studies have focused on assessing habitat attributes at a single spatial scale, and often fail to consider the importance of ecological mechanisms that act across spatial scales.

Multimodel inference and adaptive management.

Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions.