Past it? HIV and older people in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The majority of those infected and affected by HIV are younger adults. The ability of highly active antiretroviral therapies (HAART) to extend survival means that those infected when younger may reach older age, and future increases in numbers of older individuals living with HIV in England, Wales and Northern Ireland (E,W&NI) are expected. Evidence that older individuals engage in risky sexual behaviours suggests potential for HIV transmission.

Prevalent diagnosed HIV in England, Wales and Northern Ireland: adjusted totals 1996 to 2001 and extrapolations to 2004.

Objective: To predict trends in diagnosed HIV prevalence by extrapolation to 2004 using data from the annual surveys of individuals receiving HIV-related care in England, Wales and Northern Ireland from 1996 to 2001.

Methods: Data from the annual surveys of prevalent HIV infections diagnosed (SOPHID) were adjusted for under-reporting and non-attendance and separately extrapolated for infections acquired homosexually, heterosexually and by other routes. The data were extrapolated using negative binomial and linear regression models based on the 1996 to 2001 annual surveys.