Climate change and tuberculosis: an analytical framework.

Climate change is likely to exacerbate a range of determinants which drive tuberculosis, the world's leading infectious disease killer. However, tuberculosis is often neglected in wider climate health discussions. Commissioned by the World Health Organization, we developed an analytical framework outlining potential causal relationships between climate change and tuberculosis.

Effects of conditional cash transfers and pre-test and post-test tuberculosis counselling on patient outcomes and loss to follow-up across the continuum of care in South Africa: a randomised controlled trial.

Background: Economic and behavioural factors lead to poor outcomes in patients with tuberculosis. We investigated the effects of a package of interventions consisting of pre-test and post-test tuberculosis counselling with conditional cash transfers on patient outcomes in adults undergoing investigation for pulmonary tuberculosis.

Methods: This pragmatic, open-label, individual randomised controlled trial was done in nine clinics in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Modelling the epidemiological and economic impact of digital adherence technologies with differentiated care for tuberculosis treatment in Ethiopia.

Background: Digital adherence technologies (DATs) with associated differentiated care are potential tools to improve tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes and reduce associated costs for both patients and healthcare providers. However, the balance between epidemiological and economic benefits remains unclear. Here, we used data from the ASCENT trial to estimate the potential long-term epidemiological and economic impact of DAT interventions in Ethiopia.

Treatment of latent tuberculosis infection in migrants in primary care secondary care.

Background: Control of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is a priority in the World Health Organization strategy to eliminate TB. Many high-income, low TB incidence countries have prioritised LTBI screening and treatment in recent migrants. We tested whether a novel model of care, based entirely within primary care, was effective and safe compared to secondary care.

VIVALDI ASCOT and Ethnography Study: protocol for a mixed-methods longitudinal study to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 and other respiratory infection outbreaks on care home residents' quality of life and psychosocial well-being.

Introduction: Older adults in care homes experienced some of the highest rates of mortality from SARS-CoV-2 globally and were subjected to strict and lengthy non-pharmaceutical interventions, which severely impacted their daily lives. The VIVALDI ASCOT and Ethnography Study aims to assess the impact of respiratory outbreaks on care home residents' quality of life, psychological well-being, loneliness, functional ability and use of space. This study is linked to the VIVALDI-CT, a randomised controlled trial of staff's asymptomatic testing and sickness payment support in care homes (ISRCTN13296529).

Economic evaluation of novel Mycobacterium tuberculosis specific antigen-based skin tests for detection of TB infection: A modelling study.

Evidence on the economic impact of novel skin tests for tuberculosis infection (TBST) is scarce and limited by study quality. We used estimates on the cost-effectiveness of the use of TBST compared to current tuberculosis infection (TBI) tests to assess whether TBST are affordable and feasible to implement under different country contexts. A Markov model parametrised to Brazil, South Africa and the UK was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of three TBI testing strategies: (1) Diaskintest (DST), (2) TST test, and (3) IGRA QFT test.

Shaping care home COVID-19 testing policy: a protocol for a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial of asymptomatic testing compared with standard care in care home staff (VIVALDI-CT).

Introduction: Care home residents have experienced significant morbidity, mortality and disruption following outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2. Regular SARS-CoV-2 testing of care home staff was introduced to reduce transmission of infection, but it is unclear whether this remains beneficial. This trial aims to investigate whether use of regular asymptomatic staff testing, alongside funding to reimburse sick pay for those who test positive and meet costs of employing agency staff, is a feasible and effective strategy to reduce COVID-19 impact in care homes.

Public health benefits of shifting from hospital-focused to ambulatory TB care in Eastern Europe: Optimising TB investments in Belarus, the Republic of Moldova, and Romania.

High rates of drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) continue to threaten public health, especially in Eastern Europe. Costs for treating DR-TB are substantially higher than treating drug-susceptible TB, and higher yet if DR-TB services are delivered in hospital. The WHO recommends that multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB be treated using mainly ambulatory care, shown to have non-inferior health outcomes, however, there has been a delay to transition away from hospital-focused MDR-TB care in certain Eastern European countries.

Evaluating the equity impact and cost-effectiveness of digital adherence technologies with differentiated care to support tuberculosis treatment adherence in Ethiopia: protocol and analysis plan for the health economics component of a cluster randomised trial.

Background: Tuberculosis remains a leading infectious cause of death in resource-limited settings. Effective treatment is the cornerstone of tuberculosis control, reducing mortality, recurrence and transmission. Supporting treatment adherence through facility-based observations of medication taking can be costly to providers and patients.

Transmission of gram-negative antibiotic-resistant bacteria following differing exposure to antibiotic-resistance reservoirs in a rural community: a modelling study for bloodstream infections.

Exposure to community reservoirs of gram-negative antibiotic-resistant bacteria (GN-ARB) genes poses substantial health risks to individuals, complicating potential infections. Transmission networks and population dynamics remain unclear, particularly in resource-poor communities. We use a dynamic compartment model to assess GN-ARB transmission quantitatively, including the susceptible, colonised, infected, and removed populations at the community-hospital interface.

National tuberculosis spending efficiency and its associated factors in 121 low-income and middle-income countries, 2010-19: a data envelopment and stochastic frontier analysis.

Background: Maximising the efficiency of national tuberculosis programmes is key to improving service coverage, outcomes, and progress towards End TB targets. We aimed to determine the overall efficiency of tuberculosis spending and investigate associated factors in 121 low-income and middle-income countries between 2010 and 2019.

Methods: In this data envelopment and stochastic frontier analysis, we used data from the WHO Global TB report series on tuberculosis spending as the input and treatment coverage as the output to estimate tuberculosis spending efficiency.

Optima TB: A tool to help optimally allocate tuberculosis spending.

Approximately 85% of tuberculosis (TB) related deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries where health resources are scarce. Effective priority setting is required to maximise the impact of limited budgets. The Optima TB tool has been developed to support analytical capacity and inform evidence-based priority setting processes for TB health benefits package design.

Screening for tuberculosis among high-risk groups attending London emergency departments: a prospective observational study.

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Tackling TB in migrants arriving at Europe's southern border.

Over a quarter of the individuals diagnosed with tuberculosis [TB] in the European Union region are born outside of the area and the proportion has been increasing steadily. Italy is a low TB incidence country with over 50% of TB cases in the foreign-born population primarily due to the high numbers of migrants entering the country via land or sea. As a case study to evaluate the value of screening in newly arrived migrants, the EDETECT-TB project in Italy implemented and evaluated active TB screening in the migrant population at first reception centres to ensure early diagnosis to avoid further spread.

Modelling SARS-COV2 Spread in London: Approaches to Lift the Lockdown.

Objective: To use mathematical models to predict the epidemiological impact of lifting the lockdown in London, UK, and alternative strategies to help inform policy in the UK.

Methods: A mathematical model for the transmission of SARS-CoV2 in London. The model was parametrised using data on notified cases, deaths, contacts, and mobility to analyse the epidemic in the UK capital.

Modelling the dynamics of EBV transmission to inform a vaccine target product profile and future vaccination strategy.

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is one of the most common human viruses and the cause of pathologies such as infectious mononucleosis (IM) and certain cancers. No vaccine against EBV infection currently exists, but such vaccines are in development. Knowledge of how EBV is transmitted at the population level is critical to the development of target product profiles (TPPs) for such vaccines and future vaccination strategies.

Analysing the link between public transport use and airborne transmission: mobility and contagion in the London underground.

Background: The transmission of infectious diseases is dependent on the amount and nature of contacts between infectious and healthy individuals. Confined and crowded environments that people visit in their day-to-day life (such as town squares, business districts, transport hubs, etc) can act as hot-spots for spreading disease. In this study we explore the link between the use of public transport and the spread of airborne infections in urban environments.