Publications by authors named "L Cibrelus"
Assessing yellow fever outbreak potential and implications for vaccine strategy.
PLOS Glob Public Health
November 2024
Yellow fever (YF), a vector-borne viral hemorrhagic fever, is endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America, with large vaccination programmes being used for control. However, significant outbreaks have occurred in recent years. Data on infection rates and seroprevalence is often sparse, requiring robust mathematical models to estimate the burden of yellow fever.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFArticle Synopsis
- Yellow fever (YF) is a serious viral disease primarily found in tropical areas of Africa and South America, and while there is a safe vaccine, better strategies for prevention are needed.
- Researchers refined a mathematical model to assess YF transmission, incorporating data from both Africa and South America to estimate infections and deaths in these regions.
- In 2018, there were an estimated 109,000 severe infections and 51,000 deaths from YF, with vaccination efforts in Africa shown to reduce deaths by 47%, highlighting the importance of ongoing vaccination and disease monitoring.
Yellow Fever (YF) is an arbovirus endemic in tropical regions of South America and Africa and it is estimated to cause 78,000 deaths a year in Africa alone. Climate change may have substantial effects on the transmission of YF and we present the first analysis of the potential impact on disease burden. We extend an existing model of YF transmission to account for rainfall and a temperature suitability index and project transmission intensity across the African endemic region in the context of four climate change scenarios.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFBackground: To counter the increasing global risk of Yellow fever (YF), the World Health Organisation initiated the Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy. Estimating YF burden, as well as vaccine impact, while accounting for the features of urban YF transmission such as indirect benefits of vaccination, is key to informing this strategy.
Methods And Findings: We developed two model variants to estimate YF burden in sub-Saharan Africa, assuming all infections stem from either the sylvatic or the urban cycle of the disease.