Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways.

Due to insufficient climate action over the past decade, it is increasingly likely that 1.5 °C of global warming will be exceeded - at least temporarily - in the 21 century. Such a temporary temperature overshoot carries additional climate risks which are poorly understood.

Showcasing MESMER-X: Spatially Resolved Emulation of Annual Maximum Temperatures of Earth System Models.

Emulators of Earth System Models (ESMs) are complementary to ESMs by providing climate information at lower computational costs. Thus far, the emulation of spatially resolved climate extremes has only received limited attention, even though extreme events are one of the most impactful aspects of climate change. Here, we propose a method for the emulation of local annual maximum temperatures, with a focus on reproducing essential statistical properties such as correlations in space and time.