Probability of vertical HIV transmission: A systematic review and meta-regression.

Background: Eliminating HIV vertical transmission (VT) and is a global priority. Estimates of paediatric HIV infections are commonly derived through mathematical models relying on rates of VT stratified by maternal immunological and treatment status from literature, namely the UNAIDS-supported Spectrum AIDS Impact Module (Spectrum-AIM) to assess progress towards eliminating VT. Default VT probabilities were last updated in 2018, since then there have been substantial changes to service delivery and ART regimens.

Cultural taboos and low sexual and reproductive health literacy among university students in Magway city, Myanmar.

University students in Myanmar experience a high prevalence of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) problems including unintended pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections. These are compounded by pervasive cultural taboos surrounding sex and sexuality. Sexual and reproductive health literacy is crucial to addressing these problems.

Association Between Early Sexual Debut and New HIV Infections Among Adolescents and Young Adults in 11 African Countries.

We investigated the association between early sexual debut and HIV infection among adolescents and young adults. Analyzing data from nationally representative Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) surveys in 11 African countries, the research employed a multivariate logistic regression model to assess the relationship between the early sexual debut and new HIV infections in the age group of 10-24 years. The results revealed a significant and robust association, indicating that young individuals who experienced early sexual debut were approximately 2.

Global-, Regional-, and National-Level Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Diagnoses, 2020-2021.

Evaluating cross-country variability on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis (TB) may provide urgent inputs to control programs as countries recover from the pandemic. We compared expected TB notifications, modeled using trends in annual TB notifications from 2013-2019, with observed TB notifications to compute the observed to expected (OE) ratios for 170 countries. We applied the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method to identify the covariates, out of 27 pandemic- and tuberculosis-relevant variables, that had the strongest explanatory power for log OE ratios.

Meningococcal A conjugate vaccine coverage in the meningitis belt of Africa from 2010 to 2021: a modelling study.

Background: As of the end of 2021, twenty-four countries in the African meningitis belt have rolled out mass campaigns of MenAfriVac®, a meningococcal A conjugate vaccine (MACV) first introduced in 2010. Twelve have completed introduction of MACV into routine immunisation (RI) schedules. Although select post-campaign coverage data are published, no study currently comprehensively estimates MACV coverage from both routine and campaign sources in the meningitis belt across age, country, and time.

Aetiology and incidence of diarrhoea requiring hospitalisation in children under 5 years of age in 28 low-income and middle-income countries: findings from the Global Pediatric Diarrhea Surveillance network.

Introduction: Diarrhoea remains a leading cause of child morbidity and mortality. Systematically collected and analysed data on the aetiology of hospitalised diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries are needed to prioritise interventions.

Methods: We established the Global Pediatric Diarrhea Surveillance network, in which children under 5 years hospitalised with diarrhoea were enrolled at 33 sentinel surveillance hospitals in 28 low-income and middle-income countries.

Progress towards the 2020 milestones of the end TB strategy in Cambodia: estimates of age and sex specific TB incidence and mortality from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Background: Cambodia was recently removed from the World Health Organization's (WHO's) top 30 high tuberculosis (TB) burden countries. However, Cambodia's TB burden remains substantial, and the country is on the WHO's new global TB watchlist. We aimed to examine the levels and trends in the fatal and non-fatal TB burden in Cambodia from 1990 to 2019, assessing progress towards the WHO End TB interim milestones, which aim to reduce TB incidence rate by 20% and TB deaths by 35% from 2015 to 2020.

Time trends in tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019.

Background: Tuberculosis is the leading cause of death from a single infectious agent among the HIV-negative population and ranks first among the HIV-positive population. However, few studies have assessed tuberculosis trends in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) or with an emphasis on HIV status. This study assesses the time trends of tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS with an emphasis on HIV status from 1990 to 2019.

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in children under five years of age in 195 countries: A meta-regression analysis.

Background: Rotavirus caused an estimated 151,714 deaths from diarrhea among children under 5 in 2019. To reduce mortality, countries are considering adding rotavirus vaccination to their routine immunization program. Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) to inform these decisions are not available in every setting, and where they are, results are sensitive to modeling assumptions, especially about vaccine efficacy.

Finding gaps in routine TB surveillance activities in Bangladesh.

TB was the leading cause of death from a single infectious pathogen globally between 2014 and 2019. Fine-scale estimates of TB prevalence and case notifications can be combined to guide priority-setting for strengthening routine surveillance activities in high-burden countries. We produce policy-relevant estimates of the TB epidemic at the second administrative unit in Bangladesh.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated suppression measures on the burden of tuberculosis in India.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is a major cause of death globally. India carries the highest share of the global TB burden. The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted diagnosis of TB in India, yet there is limited data on how TB case reporting has changed since the pandemic began and which factors determine differences in case notification.

Estimating the population at high risk for tuberculosis through household exposure in high-incidence countries: a model-based analysis.

Background: Household contacts of people with pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) have greater risk of developing TB. Recent guidelines conditionally recommended TB preventive treatment (TPT) for household contacts of any age living in TB high-incidence countries, expanding earlier guidance to provide TPT to household contacts under five. The all-age population of household contacts has not been estimated.

Accounting for misclassified and unknown cause of death data in vital registration systems for estimating trends in HIV mortality.

Introduction: Misclassification of HIV deaths can substantially diminish the usefulness of cause of death data for decision-making. In this study, we describe the methods developed by the Global Burden of Disease Study to account for the misclassified cause of death data from vital registration systems for estimating HIV mortality in 132 countries and territories.

Methods: The cause of death data were obtained from the World Health Organization Mortality Database and official country-specific mortality databases.

Incidence of HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2015: The Interplay Between Social Determinants and Behavioral Risk Factors.

HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa declined substantially between 2000 and 2015. In this analysis, we consider the relative associations of nine structural and individual determinants with this decline. A linear mixed effects model of logged HIV incidence rates versus determinants was used.

Interferon-gamma release assay levels and risk of progression to active tuberculosis: a systematic review and dose-response meta-regression analysis.

Background: Identifying and treating individuals with high risk of progression from latent tuberculosis infection to active tuberculosis (TB) disease is critical for eliminating the disease. We aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-regression analysis to quantify the dose-response relationship between interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) levels and the risk of progression to active TB.

Methods: We searched PubMed and Embase from 1 January 2001 to 10 May 2020 for longitudinal studies that reported the risk of progression from latent to active TB as a function of baseline IGRA values.

The Global Burden of Meningitis in Children: Challenges with Interpreting Global Health Estimates.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has developed a global roadmap to defeat meningitis by 2030. To advocate for and track progress of the roadmap, the burden of meningitis as a syndrome and by pathogen must be accurately defined. Three major global health models estimating meningitis mortality as a syndrome and/or by causative pathogen were identified and compared for the baseline year 2015.

Coverage of tuberculosis and diabetes mellitus screening among household contacts of tuberculosis patients: a household-based cross-sectional survey from Southern Thailand.

Background: The comorbid presence of tuberculosis and diabetes mellitus has become an increasingly important public health threat to the prevention and control of both diseases. Thus, household contact investigation may serve a dual purpose of screening for both tuberculosis and diabetes mellitus among household contacts. We therefore aimed to evaluate the coverage of screening for tuberculosis and diabetes mellitus among household contacts of tuberculosis index cases and to determine predictors of tuberculosis screening.

Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors in Child and Adolescent Health, 1990 to 2017: Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2017 Study.

Importance: Understanding causes and correlates of health loss among children and adolescents can identify areas of success, stagnation, and emerging threats and thereby facilitate effective improvement strategies.

Objective: To estimate mortality and morbidity in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2017 by age and sex in 195 countries and territories.

Design, Setting, And Participants: This study examined levels, trends, and spatiotemporal patterns of cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes using standardized approaches to data processing and statistical analysis.

Tuberculosis Burden in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2016: Evidence from the Global Burden of Diseases 2016 Study.

Background: The burden of Tuberculosis (TB) has not been comprehensively evaluated over the last 25 years in Ethiopia. In this study, we used the 2016 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors (GBD) data to analyze the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of tuberculosis (TB) in Ethiopia over the last 26 years.

Methods: The GBD 2016 is a mathematical modeling using different data source for Ethiopia such as verbal autopsy (VA), prevalence surveys and annual case notifications.

Global variation in bacterial strains that cause tuberculosis disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: The host, microbial, and environmental factors that contribute to variation in tuberculosis (TB) disease are incompletely understood. Accumulating evidence suggests that one driver of geographic variation in TB disease is the local ecology of mycobacterial genotypes or strains, and there is a need for a comprehensive and systematic synthesis of these data. The objectives of this study were to (1) map the global distribution of genotypes that cause TB disease and (2) examine whether any epidemiologically relevant clinical characteristics were associated with those genotypes.

Progress toward eliminating TB and HIV deaths in Brazil, 2001-2015: a spatial assessment.

Background: Brazil has high burdens of tuberculosis (TB) and HIV, as previously estimated for the 26 states and the Federal District, as well as high levels of inequality in social and health indicators. We improved the geographic detail of burden estimation by modelling deaths due to TB and HIV and TB case fatality ratios for the more than 5400 municipalities in Brazil.

Methods: This ecological study used vital registration data from the national mortality information system and TB case notifications from the national communicable disease notification system from 2001 to 2015.

Causes of death among children aged 5-14 years in the WHO European Region: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

Background: The mortality burden in children aged 5-14 years in the WHO European Region has not been comprehensively studied. We assessed the distribution and trends of the main causes of death among children aged 5-9 years and 10-14 years from 1990 to 2016, for 51 countries in the WHO European Region.

Methods: We used data from vital registration systems, cancer registries, and police records from 1980 to 2016 to estimate cause-specific mortality using the Cause of Death Ensemble model.