Epidemiol Health
April 2021
Objectives: Amid the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), with its high infectivity, we have relied on mathematical models to predict the temporal evolution of the disease. This paper aims to show that, due to active behavioral changes of individuals and the inherent nature of infectious diseases, it is complicated and challenging to predict the temporal evolution of epidemics.
Methods: A modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-hospitalized-removed (SEIHR) compartment model with a discrete feedback-controlled transmission rate was proposed to incorporate individuals' behavioral changes into the model.