Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest insect populations under climate change.

Effects of climate on forest insect populations are complex, often involving drivers that are opposing, nonlinear, and nonadditive. Overall, climate change is driving an increase in outbreaks and range shifts. Links between climate and forest insect dynamics are becoming clearer; however, the underlying mechanisms remain less clear.

Advances in understanding the drivers of population spatial synchrony.

The causes of spatial synchrony in population dynamics are often elusive. We review how recent advances have enhanced understanding of the causes of the spatial synchrony of insect populations and revealed previously underappreciated complexities in patterns of synchrony. We highlight how regional-scale studies of population genetic structure have helped elucidate the role of dispersal in population synchronization and how novel data-analytic approaches have revealed variation in spatial synchrony across timescales and geographies and the underlying drivers.

Climate affects the outbreaks of a forest defoliator indirectly through its tree hosts.

Although spatial variation in climate can directly affect the survival and reproduction of forest insects and the tree species compositions of forests, little is known about the indirect effects of climate on outbreaks of forest insects through its effects on forest composition. In this study, we use structural equation modeling to examine the direct and indirect effects of climate, water capacity of the soil, host tree density, and non-host density on the spatial extent of Lymantria dispar outbreaks in the Eastern USA over a period of 44 years (1975-2018). Host species were subdivided into four taxonomic and ecologically distinct groups: red oaks (Lobatae), white oaks (Lepidobalanus), other preferred hosts, and intermediate (less preferred) hosts.

A transdisciplinary research agenda for understanding insect responses to ecological light pollution informed by evolutionary trap theory.

Evolutionary traps are phenomena in which rapid environmental change causes environmental cues that historically guided adaptive behavioral or life-history decisions to become poor predictors of the consequences of such decisions for an organism's fitness. Evolutionary trap theory offers an ideal framework for understanding and mitigating the effects of ecological light pollution (ELP) on insects. We emphasize the utility of an evolutionary trap perspective in demonstrating the importance of an integrated understanding of the sensory, behavioral, evolutionary, and demographic mechanisms underlying insect responses to ELP.

Interactions between artificial light at night, soil moisture, and plant density affect the growth of a perennial wildflower.

Artificial light at night (ALAN) has been shown to alter aspects of plant growth, but we are not aware of any studies that have examined whether the effects of ALAN on plants depend upon the backdrop of variation in other abiotic factors that plants encounter in field populations. We conducted a field experiment to investigate whether ALAN affects the growth and anti-herbivore defenses of common milkweed, Asclepias syriaca, and whether the effects of ALAN are influenced by plant density or soil moisture content. Artificial light at night, soil moisture, and plant density were manipulated according to a split-plot factorial design.

Population spatial synchrony enhanced by periodicity and low detuning with environmental forcing.

Explaining why fluctuations in abundances of spatially disjunct populations often are correlated through time is a major goal of population ecologists. We address two hypotheses receiving little to no testing in wild populations: (i) that population cycling facilitates synchronization given weak coupling among populations, and (ii) that the ability of periodic external forces to synchronize oscillating populations is a function of the mismatch in timescales (detuning) between the force and the population. Here, we apply new analytical methods to field survey data on gypsy moth outbreaks.

Invasion in patchy landscapes is affected by dispersal mortality and mate-finding failure.

Range expansions are a function of population growth and dispersal, and nascent populations often must overcome demographic Allee effects (positive density dependence at low population densities) driven by factors such as mate-finding failure. Given the importance of individual movement to mate finding, links between landscape structure and movement may be critical to range expansion; however, landscape effects on other factors including mortality may be equally or more important. In one of the most comprehensive investigations of the interactions of these processes to date, we combined field experiments, simulation modeling, and analysis of empirical spread patterns to investigate how landscape structure affected the spread of the gypsy moth in Virginia and West Virginia.

Experimental tests of light-pollution impacts on nocturnal insect courtship and dispersal.

Though a number of effects of artificial light pollution on behavior and physiology have been described, there is little understanding of their consequences for the growth and distribution of populations. Here, we document impacts of light pollution on aspects of firefly population ecology and underlying mating behaviors. Many firefly species have a unique communication system whereby bioluminescent flashes are used in courtship displays to find and attract mates.

Temporal variation in the synchrony of weather and its consequences for spatiotemporal population dynamics.

Over large areas, synchronous fluctuations in population density are often attributed to environmental stochasticity (e.g., weather) shared among local populations.

Replacement of a dominant viral pathogen by a fungal pathogen does not alter the collapse of a regional forest insect outbreak.

Natural enemies and environmental factors likely both influence the population cycles of many forest-defoliating insect species. Previous work suggests precipitation influences the spatiotemporal patterns of gypsy moth outbreaks in North America, and it has been hypothesized that precipitation could act indirectly through effects on pathogens. We investigated the potential role of climatic and environmental factors in driving pathogen epizootics and parasitism at 57 sites over an area of ≈72,300 km(2) in four US mid-Atlantic states during the final year (2009) of a gypsy moth outbreak.

How topography induces reproductive asynchrony and alters gypsy moth invasion dynamics.

Reproductive asynchrony, a temporal mismatch in reproductive maturation between an individual and potential mates, may contribute to mate-finding failure and Allee effects that influence the establishment and spread of invasive species. Variation in elevation is likely to promote variability in maturation times for species with temperature-dependent development, but it is not known how strongly this influences reproductive asynchrony or the population growth of invasive species. We examined whether spatial variation in reproductive asynchrony, due to differences in elevation and local heterogeneity in elevation (hilliness), can explain spatial heterogeneity in the population growth rate of the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.

Forest defoliator outbreaks under climate change: effects on the frequency and severity of outbreaks of five pine insect pests.

To identify general patterns in the effects of climate change on the outbreak dynamics of forest-defoliating insect species, we examined a 212-year record (1800-2011) of outbreaks of five pine-defoliating species (Bupalus piniarius, Panolis flammea, Lymantria monacha, Dendrolimus pini, and Diprion pini) in Bavaria, Germany for the evidence of climate-driven changes in the severity, cyclicity, and frequency of outbreaks. We also accounted for historical changes in forestry practices and examined effects of past insecticide use to suppress outbreaks. Analysis of relationships between severity or occurrence of outbreaks and detrended measures of temperature and precipitation revealed a mixture of positive and negative relationships between temperature and outbreak activity.

Induced plant defenses, host-pathogen interactions, and forest insect outbreaks.

Cyclic outbreaks of defoliating insects devastate forests, but their causes are poorly understood. Outbreak cycles are often assumed to be driven by density-dependent mortality due to natural enemies, because pathogens and predators cause high mortality and because natural-enemy models reproduce fluctuations in defoliation data. The role of induced defenses is in contrast often dismissed, because toxic effects of defenses are often weak and because induced-defense models explain defoliation data no better than natural-enemy models.

Geographical variation in the spatial synchrony of a forest-defoliating insect: isolation of environmental and spatial drivers.

Despite the pervasiveness of spatial synchrony of population fluctuations in virtually every taxon, it remains difficult to disentangle its underlying mechanisms, such as environmental perturbations and dispersal. We used multiple regression of distance matrices (MRMs) to statistically partition the importance of several factors potentially synchronizing the dynamics of the gypsy moth, an invasive species in North America, exhibiting outbreaks that are partially synchronized over long distances (approx. 900 km).

Long-term shifts in the cyclicity of outbreaks of a forest-defoliating insect.

Recent collapses of population cycles in several species highlight the mutable nature of population behavior as well as the potential role of human-induced environmental change in causing population dynamics to shift. We investigate changes in the cyclicity of gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) outbreaks by applying wavelet analysis to an 86-year time series of forest defoliation in the northeastern United States. Gypsy moth population dynamics shifted on at least four occasions during the study period (1924-2009); strongly cyclical outbreaks were observed between ca.

Climatic warming disrupts recurrent Alpine insect outbreaks.

Climate change has been identified as a causal factor for diverse ecological changes worldwide. Warming trends over the last couple of decades have coincided with the collapse of long-term population cycles in a broad range of taxa, although causal mechanisms are not well-understood. Larch budmoth (LBM) population dynamics across the European Alps, a classic example of regular outbreaks, inexplicably changed sometime during the 1980s after 1,200 y of nearly uninterrupted periodic outbreak cycles.

Spatial synchrony propagates through a forest food web via consumer-resource interactions.

In many study systems, populations fluctuate synchronously across large regions. Several mechanisms have been advanced to explain this, but their importance in nature is often uncertain. Theoretical studies suggest that spatial synchrony initiated in one species through Moran effects may propagate among trophically linked species, but evidence for this in nature is lacking.

Spatial analysis of harmonic oscillation of gypsy moth outbreak intensity.

Outbreaks of many forest-defoliating insects are synchronous over broad geographic areas and occur with a period of approximately 10 years. Within the range of the gypsy moth in North America, however, there is considerable geographic heterogeneity in strength of periodicity and the frequency of outbreaks. Furthermore, gypsy moth outbreaks exhibit two significant periodicities: a dominant period of 8-10 years and a subdominant period of 4-5 years.

Diffusion models for animals in complex landscapes: incorporating heterogeneity among substrates, individuals and edge behaviours.

1. Animals move commonly through a variety of landscape elements and edges in search of food, mates and other resources. We developed a diffusion model for the movement of an insect herbivore, the planthopper Prokelisia crocea, that inhabits a landscape composed of patches of its host plant, prairie cordgrass Spartina pectinata, embedded in a matrix of mudflat or smooth brome Bromus inermis.

Resource complementation and the response of an insect herbivore to habitat area and fragmentation.

Few studies have disentangled the effects of the area and fragmentation of a focal habitat type on species that use multiple habitat types within a landscape. We experimentally investigated the effects of habitat area, habitat fragmentation, and matrix composition on the movement and distribution of Melanoplus femurrubrum. Adults of this grasshopper feed preferentially on grasses, but oviposit almost exclusively in soil dominated by forbs.

Landscape context outweighs local habitat quality in its effects on herbivore dispersal and distribution.

Past studies with spatially structured herbivore populations have emphasized the primacy of intrinsic factors (e.g., patch quality), patch geometry (e.