Publications by authors named "Kucharski A"

Influenza vaccine effectiveness and immunogenicity can be compromised with repeated vaccination. We assessed immunological markers in a cohort of healthcare workers (HCW) from six public hospitals around Australia during 2020-2021. Sera were collected pre-vaccination and ~14 and ~180 days post-vaccination and assessed in haemagglutination inhibition assay against egg-grown vaccine and equivalent cell-grown viruses.

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Little is known about the epidemiology of leptospirosis in the Dominican Republic, the second most populous country in the Caribbean. We report on findings from a multi-stage household survey across two regions in the country that reveals a previously under-estimated burden of human Leptospira infection. Our findings, based on the reference-standard microscopic agglutination test, indicate a complex picture of serogroup diversity, spatial heterogeneity in infection and risk, and a marked discrepancy between reported cases and serologically estimated infections.

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Since the COVID-19 pandemic, considerable advances have been made to improve epidemic preparedness by accelerating diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccine development. However, we argue that it is crucial to make equivalent efforts in the field of outbreak analytics to help ensure reliable, evidence-based decision making. To explore the challenges and key priorities in the field of outbreak analytics, the Epiverse-TRACE initiative brought together a multidisciplinary group of experts, including field epidemiologists, data scientists, academics, and software engineers from public health institutions across multiple countries.

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Directly transmitted infectious diseases spread through social contacts that change over time, but outbreak models typically make simplifying assumptions about network structure and dynamics. To assess how common assumptions relate to real-world interactions, we analysed 11 networks from five settings and developed metrics, capturing crucial epidemiological features of these networks. We developed a novel metric, the 'retention index', to characterize the distribution of retained contacts over consecutive time steps relative to fully static and dynamic networks.

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Article Synopsis
  • Epidemiological studies show that factors like pre-vaccination immune status, age, gender, and vaccination history affect how people respond to influenza vaccines, but results vary across different studies.* -
  • A new Bayesian model was created to analyze the relationships between these host factors and antibody responses after vaccination, revealing that pre-vaccination antibody levels and vaccination history significantly affect post-vaccine antibody dynamics.* -
  • The findings suggest that individuals who have been vaccinated less frequently and have lower pre-vaccination antibody levels experience longer durations of effective protection (seroprotection) from the vaccine, with notable differences observed in antibody response to different influenza subtypes.*
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Ongoing influenza H5N1 outbreaks highlight the need for timely, scalable interventions that draw on lessons from COVID-19. In particular, successful pandemic preparedness requires early outbreak management, including effective responses targeting spillovers before there is evidence of human-to-human transmission.

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Introduction: Endolymphatic sac tumors (ELSTs) are rare neuroectodermal neoplasms that originate in the endolymphatic sac and duct. They exhibit no specific age or gender predilection, although they are more prevalent in patients with von Hippel-Lindau syndrome.

Material And Methods: The manuscript preparation adhered to the CARE guidelines for standardizing clinical cases and the PRISMA guidelines for scientific reviews.

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The 2014 chikungunya outbreak in the Dominican Republic resulted in intense local transmission, with high postoutbreak seroprevalence. The resulting population immunity will likely minimize risk for another large outbreak through 2035, but changes in population behavior or environmental conditions or emergence of different virus strains could lead to increased transmission.

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Infectious disease models provide a systematic way to estimate crucial features of epidemic dynamics and explore different transmission and control scenarios. Given the importance of model-based analysis in managing public health crises, there has been an increase in post-pandemic creation of both academia-driven modelling centres, hubs and consortiums and government-driven public health agencies with in-house modelling units or teams. However, in the past, the delineation of roles and responsibilities between government- and academia-led modelling groups has often been unclear.

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Humans experience many influenza infections over their lives, resulting in complex and varied immunological histories. Although experimental and quantitative analyses have improved our understanding of the immunological processes defining an individual's antibody repertoire, how these within-host processes are linked to population-level influenza epidemiology in humans remains unclear. Here, we used a multilevel mathematical model to jointly infer antibody dynamics and individual-level lifetime influenza A/H3N2 infection histories for 1,130 individuals in Guangzhou, China, using 67,683 haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay measurements against 20 A/H3N2 strains from repeat serum samples collected between 2009 and 2015.

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Influenza vaccine effectiveness and immunogenicity can be compromised with repeated vaccination. We assessed immunological markers in a cohort of healthcare workers (HCW) from six public hospitals around Australia during 2020-2021. Sera were collected pre-vaccination and ~14 and ~ 180 days post-vaccination and assessed in haemagglutination inhibition assay against egg-grown vaccine and equivalent cell-grown viruses.

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Article Synopsis
  • The proportion of measles cases in England from 2010 to 2019 among vaccinated individuals has increased, particularly in young adults, raising concerns about vaccine-induced immunity and measles control efforts.
  • A mathematical model was developed to analyze measles transmission dynamics, comparing scenarios with and without the waning of vaccine immunity, using data from the UK Health Security Agency.
  • Results indicated that the model incorporating waning immunity accurately predicted the number of measles cases among vaccinated individuals, suggesting that waning immunity is a significant factor in the current outbreak patterns.
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  • The study investigates the factors influencing the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Dominican Republic and evaluates the effectiveness of the CoronaVac vaccination campaign that began in February 2021.
  • Using a dynamic model, the researchers simulated the impact of vaccination on hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and deaths, estimating significant averted cases within the first six months of the campaign.
  • The findings indicate that while prior immunity played a role, vaccination was crucial for safely increasing mobility in the population without causing additional health issues.
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Background: The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and COVID-19 vaccination have resulted in complex exposure histories. Rapid assessment of the effects of these exposures on neutralising antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 infection is crucial for informing vaccine strategy and epidemic management. We aimed to investigate heterogeneity in individual-level and population-level antibody kinetics to emerging variants by previous SARS-CoV-2 exposure history, to examine implications for real-time estimation, and to examine the effects of vaccine-campaign timing.

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Article Synopsis
  • Researchers studied how individual immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 affect overall population immunity and its impact on disease transmission.
  • Blood samples were collected from participants in the Dominican Republic at two points during the pandemic to analyze changes in antibody levels using advanced statistical models.
  • Findings revealed that widespread transmission led to a convergence in antibody levels across different individuals, suggesting that this could inform future vaccination strategies and improve public health planning.
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The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the key role that epidemiology and modelling play in analysing infectious threats and supporting decision making in real-time. Motivated by the unprecedented volume and breadth of data generated during the pandemic, we review modern opportunities for analysis to address questions that emerge during a major modern epidemic. Following the broad chronology of insights required - from understanding initial dynamics to retrospective evaluation of interventions, we describe the theoretical foundations of each approach and the underlying intuition.

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During 2020-2022, players and staff in the English Premier League in the United Kingdom were tested regularly for SARS-CoV-2 with the aim of creating a biosecure bubble for each team. We found that prevalence and reinfection estimates were consistent with those from other studies and with community infection trends.

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Vaccination against COVID-19 has been pivotal in reducing the global burden of the disease. However, Phase III trial results and observational studies underscore differences in efficacy across vaccine technologies and dosing regimens. Notably, mRNA vaccines have exhibited superior effectiveness compared to Adenovirus (AdV) vaccines, especially with extended dosing intervals.

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Article Synopsis
  • Paragangliomas are neuroendocrine tumors located in various body regions, and their surgical removal can be complicated by nearby critical structures; pre-operative embolisation is used to minimize risks.
  • A study reviewed data from 27 patients with head and neck paragangliomas who underwent selective embolisation, achieving over 75% blood supply occlusion in 81.5% of cases.
  • The procedure was found to be safe, with minimal complications and no neurological deficits, supporting its effectiveness before surgery.
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Purpose: We aim to investigate the integration of augmented reality (AR) within the context of increasingly complex surgical procedures and instrument handling toward the transition to smart operating rooms (OR). In contrast to cumbersome paper-based surgical instrument manuals still used in the OR, we wish to provide surgical staff with an AR head-mounted display that provides in-situ visualization and guidance throughout the assembly process of surgical instruments. Our requirement analysis supports the development and provides guidelines for its transfer into surgical practice.

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Objective: This study investigates the role of trust in shaping COVID-19 vaccine acceptance in the Dominican Republic (DR) during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design: Cross-sectional household survey.

Setting: Randomly selected households across 134 clusters in the DR, from 30 June 2021 to 12 October 2021.

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Article Synopsis
  • - The COVID-19 pandemic has put immense pressure on healthcare workers and experts, leading to serious psychological issues like stress, burnout, and moral injury, which affect their wellbeing and productivity.
  • - A workshop was held with diverse professionals to reflect on the personal and professional impacts of pandemic response work, leading to collective recommendations for improving future epidemics responses.
  • - Key concerns identified included inadequate institutional support and mental health challenges; recommendations focused on enhancing collaboration, recognition, and sustainable practices within public health work.
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Background: Streptococcus pyogenes causes more than 500 000 deaths per year globally, which occur disproportionately in low-income and middle-income countries. The roles of S pyogenes skin and pharyngeal carriage in transmission are unclear. We aimed to investigate the clinical epidemiology and household transmission dynamics of both S pyogenes asymptomatic carriage and infection in a high-burden setting.

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Little is known about SARS-CoV-2 infection risk in African countries with high levels of infection-driven immunity and low vaccine coverage. We conducted a prospective cohort study of 349 participants from 52 households in The Gambia between March 2021 and June 2022, with routine weekly SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR and 6-monthly SARS-CoV-2 serology. Attack rates of 45% and 57% were seen during Delta and Omicron BA.

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