Surface Deformation and Seismicity Linked to Fluid Injection in the Raton Basin.

It is suggested that in addition to seismicity deep fluid injection may cause surface uplift and subsidence in oil and gas-producing regions. This study uses the Raton Basin as an example to investigate the hydromechanical processes of surface uplift and subsidence during wastewater injection. The Raton Basin, in southern central Colorado and northern central New Mexico, has experienced wastewater injection related to coalbed methane and gas production starting in 1994.

Tidal modulation of the seismic activity related to the 2021 La Palma volcanic eruption.

The volcanic eruption at La Palma started on September 19, 2021. The eruption was preceded by a seismic swarm that began on September 11, although anomalous seismicity has been observed on the island since 2017. During the co-eruptive phase of the seismic activity, hypocenters depth was generally less than 15 km, save for the period between November 10 and November 27, when hypocenters ranged in the depth from 15 to 40 km.

Shallow magmatic intrusion evolution below La Palma before and during the 2021 eruption.

La Palma, Canary Islands, underwent volcanic unrest which culminated in its largest historical eruption. We study this unrest along 2021 using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and a new improved interpretation methodology, comparing achieved results with the crustal structure. We reproduce the final phase of La Palma volcanic unrest, highligthing a shallow magma accumulation which begins about 3.

A multi-sensor evaluation of precipitation uncertainty for landslide-triggering storm events.

Extreme precipitation can have profound consequences for communities, resulting in natural hazards such as rainfall-triggered landslides that cause casualties and extensive property damage. A key challenge to understanding and predicting rainfall-triggered landslides comes from observational uncertainties in the depth and intensity of precipitation preceding the event. Practitioners and researchers must select from a wide range of precipitation products, often with little guidance.

Detection of volcanic unrest onset in La Palma, Canary Islands, evolution and implications.

La Palma island is one of the highest potential risks in the volcanic archipelago of the Canaries and therefore it is important to carry out an in-depth study to define its state of unrest. This has been accomplished through the use of satellite radar observations and an original state-of-the-art interpretation technique. Here we show the detection of the onset of volcanic unrest on La Palma island, most likely decades before a potential eruption.

Modeling the two- and three-dimensional displacement field in Lorca, Spain, subsidence and the global implications.

Land subsidence associated with overexploitation of aquifers is a hazard that commonly affects large areas worldwide. The Lorca area, located in southeast Spain, has undergone one of the highest subsidence rates in Europe as a direct consequence of long-term aquifer exploitation. Previous studies carried out on the region assumed that the ground deformation retrieved from satellite radar interferometry corresponds only to vertical displacement.

Surface uplift and time-dependent seismic hazard due to fluid injection in eastern Texas.

Observations that unequivocally link seismicity and wastewater injection are scarce. Here we show that wastewater injection in eastern Texas causes uplift, detectable in radar interferometric data up to >8 kilometers from the wells. Using measurements of uplift, reported injection data, and a poroelastic model, we computed the crustal strain and pore pressure.

Record-breaking avalanches in driven threshold systems.

Record-breaking avalanches generated by the dynamics of several driven nonlinear threshold models are studied. Such systems are characterized by intermittent behavior, where a slow buildup of energy is punctuated by an abrupt release of energy through avalanche events, which usually follow scale-invariant statistics. From the simulations of these systems it is possible to extract sequences of record-breaking avalanches, where each subsequent record-breaking event is larger in magnitude than all previous events.

Probabilities for large events in driven threshold systems.

Many driven threshold systems display a spectrum of avalanche event sizes, often characterized by power-law scaling. An important problem is to compute probabilities of the largest events ("Black Swans"). We develop a data-driven approach to the problem by transforming to the event index frame, and relating this to Shannon information.

Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California.

The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes in 0.

Space-time clustering and correlations of major earthquakes.

Earthquake occurrence in nature is thought to result from correlated elastic stresses, leading to clustering in space and time. We show that the occurrence of major earthquakes in California correlates with time intervals when fluctuations in small earthquakes are suppressed relative to the long term average. We estimate a probability of less than 1% that this coincidence is due to random clustering.