The Future of Total Elbow Arthroplasty: A Statistical Forecast Model for Germany.

This study provides a statistical forecast for the development of total elbow arthroplasties (TEAs) in Germany until 2045. The authors used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Error-Trend-Seasonality (ETS), and Poisson model to forecast trends in total elbow arthroplasty based on demographic information and official procedure statistics. They predict a significant increase in total elbow joint replacements, with a higher prevalence among women than men.

The projected increase of vertebral osteomyelitis in Germany implies a demanding challenge for future healthcare management of aging populations.

Purpose: Since an increase in the occurrence of native vertebral osteomyelitis (VO) is expected and reliable projections are missing, it is urgent to provide a reliable forecast model and make it a part of future health care considerations.

Methods: Comprehensive nationwide data provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany were used to forecast total numbers and incidence rates (IR) of VO as a function of age and gender until 2040. Projections were done using autoregressive integrated moving average model on historical data from 2005 to 2019 in relation to official population projections from 2020 to 2040.

Projections From Surgical Use Models in Germany Suggest a Rising Number of Spinal Fusions in Patients 75 Years and Older Will Challenge Healthcare Systems Worldwide.

Background: Spinal fusion is a well-established procedure in the treatment of degenerative spinal diseases. Previous research shows that the use of this operative treatment has been growing in recent decades in industrialized countries and has become one of the most cost-intensive surgical procedures. It seems that in some countries such as Germany-with its large, industrialized, European population-this increase is mainly driven by demographic changes with low fertility rates, increasing life expectancy, and an aging population.