Regional forecasting of COVID-19 caseload by non-parametric regression: a VAR epidemiological model.

Objectives: The COVID-19 pandemic (caused by SARS-CoV-2) has introduced significant challenges for accurate prediction of population morbidity and mortality by traditional variable-based methods of estimation. Challenges to modelling include inadequate viral physiology comprehension and fluctuating definitions of positivity between national-to-international data. This paper proposes that accurate forecasting of COVID-19 caseload may be best preformed non-parametrically, by vector autoregression (VAR) of verifiable data regionally.

Acute pseudogout presenting as an exception to Musculoskeletal Infection Society criteria in total knee arthroplasty: a case report.

In this case, a 78-year-old female with no previous medical history of crystalline arthropathy presented with pain, effusion, and erythema about a total knee arthroplasty (TKA) performed 13 years prior. Implementation of a novel synovial fluid alpha-defensin assay ruled out periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) despite a positive 2018 Musculoskeletal Infection Society (MSIS) minor criteria score of 8 points, a significant diagnostic differentiation which prevented secondary invasive debridement or joint irrigation intervention. Confirmatory histologic study was positive for calcium pyrophosphate crystals, indicative of acute pseudogout inflammation rather than PJI or septic arthritis manifestation.