Publications by authors named "Kirsty J Bolton"
Article Synopsis
- A study surveyed 62 university users of an asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 testing service to analyze their activities and protective behaviors during the week prior to receiving a PCR test result, yielding detailed social contact histories amid social restrictions.
- The research addresses three main questions: the role of university activities in infection risk, the effectiveness of different contact definitions in predicting test outcomes, and how protective behaviors relate to discrepancies in contact measure performance.
- Findings reveal that air travel and non-university work activities were linked to positive test results, while university settings showed lower risks; furthermore, models using binary contact measures were more effective than traditional methods, suggesting a need for further research on contact definitions in larger studies.
During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, epidemic models have been central to policy-making. Public health responses have been shaped by model-based projections and inferences, especially related to the impact of various non-pharmaceutical interventions. Accompanying this has been increased scrutiny over model performance, model assumptions, and the way that uncertainty is incorporated and presented.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFIn this paper, we present work on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in UK higher education settings using multiple approaches to assess the extent of university outbreaks, how much those outbreaks may have led to spillover in the community, and the expected effects of control measures. Firstly, we found that the distribution of outbreaks in universities in late 2020 was consistent with the expected importation of infection from arriving students. Considering outbreaks at one university, larger halls of residence posed higher risks for transmission.
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- - A study examined how neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) affect the length of hospital stays for patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 by analyzing data from over 18,000 individuals from 70 clinical centers.
- - Results indicated that starting NAI treatment upon hospitalization leads to a 19% decrease in length of stay compared to starting later or not at all, with consistent findings across different patient groups.
- - The study concluded that immediate NAI treatment for hospitalized influenza patients correlates with shorter hospital stays compared to delayed treatment or no treatment, regardless of when symptoms began.
Vaccines that trigger an influenza-specific cytotoxic T cell (CTL) response may aid pandemic control by limiting the transmission of novel influenza A viruses (IAV). We consider interventions with hypothetical CTL-inducing vaccines in a range of epidemiologically plausible pandemic scenarios. We estimate the achievable reduction in the attack rate, and, by adopting a model linking epidemic progression to the emergence of IAV variants, the opportunity for antigenic drift.
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- The systematic review aimed to summarize quantitative parameters needed for compartmental mathematical modeling of Clostridium difficile infection dynamics to improve prevention and control strategies.
- A total of 54 studies were analyzed, revealing a wide range of reproduction numbers and consistent data on incubation periods and symptom onset, with limited information on contact patterns for the mathematical model.
- Conclusions indicate that the available literature lacks comprehensive estimates of the necessary parameters for modeling Clostridium difficile transmission, emphasizing the need for more high-quality research in this area.
Background: Realistic models of disease transmission incorporating complex population heterogeneities require input from quantitative population mixing studies. We use contact diaries to assess the relative importance of social settings in respiratory pathogen spread using three measures of person contact hours (PCH) as proxies for transmission risk with an aim to inform bipartite network models of respiratory pathogen transmission.
Methods And Findings: Our survey examines the contact behaviour for a convenience sample of 65 adults, with each encounter classified as occurring in a work, retail, home, social, travel or "other" setting.