Publications by authors named "Kimiaki Saito"

In this study, we created integrated radiation air dose rate maps in the Fukushima region during 2011-2022 using airborne, car-borne, and walk surveys and fixed-location measurements. We applied a Bayesian geostatistical method to the 80 km radius of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant and the entire Fukushima Prefecture while considering the history of the evacuation zone lifting in Fukushima. The integrated maps in this study fixed the bias to underestimate the air dose rates in forest areas and created integrated maps with a wider area and time series than previous studies.

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This paper presents a multidisciplinary analysis of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Along with the latest observations and simulation studies, we synthesize the time-series and event progressions during the accident across multiple disciplines, including in-plant physics and engineering systems, operators' actions, emergency responses, meteorology, radionuclide release and transport, land contamination, and health impacts. We identify three key factors that exacerbated the consequences of the accident: (1) the failure of Unit 2 containment venting, (2) the insufficient integration of radiation measurements and meteorology data in the evacuation strategy, and (3) the limited risk assessment and emergency preparedness.

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In this paper, we have developed a methodology to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of radiation air dose rates around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP). In our exploratory data analysis, we found that (1) the temporal evolution of dose rates is composed of a log-linear decay trend and fluctuations of air dose rates that are spatially correlated among adjacent monitoring posts; and (2) the slope of the log-linear environmental decay trend can be represented as a function of the apparent initial dose rates, coordinate position, land-use type, and soil type. From these observations, we first estimated the log-linear decay trend at each location based on these predictors, using the random forest method.

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An enormous amount of environmental monitoring data has been acquired by various organisations for the evaluation and implementation of countermeasures to mitigate the effects of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. However, it is difficult to collate, compare, and analyse this data because it was published in different formats at different sites according to the respective objectives of the publishing organisations. Moreover, these organisations have been accumulating data in large volumes for over nine years after the accident.

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Radiation air dose rates near the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) have been steadily decreasing over the past eight years since the release of radioactive elements in March 2011. Currently, the radiation monitoring program is expected to transition to long-term monitoring after most of the remediation activities are completed. The main long-term monitoring objectives are to (1) confirm the continuing reduction of contaminant and hazard levels, (2) provide assurance for the public, (3) accumulate the basic datasets for scientific knowledge and future preparation, and (4) detect changes or anomalies in contaminant mobility (if they occur), or any unexpected processes or events.

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The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident released the most significant quantity of radiocesium into the environment since Chernobyl, and detailed measurements over the initial 5 years provide new insights into fluvial redistribution of radiocesium. We found that the high initial activity concentration of Cs-bearing suspended sediment in rivers was followed by a steep exponential decline (λ) which extended to approximately 1 year after the accident, while the rate of initial decline in radiocesium activity concentration in water was an order of magnitude higher than rates measured after Chernobyl. Fluvial transport of Cs to the ocean from the Abukuma river totaled 12 TBq between June 2011 and August 2015 and almost all this radiocesium (96.

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Ascertaining the initial amount of accidently released radiocesium is fundamental for determining the extent of radioactive contamination following nuclear accidents, and is of key importance to environmental transfer models. A series of the airborne monitoring surveys of radioactivity have conducted by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), and provide basic information on radioactive contamination following the accident. However, there are no clear guidelines regarding the selection of airborne monitoring survey results for estimating the initial fallout input in studies of the environmental transfer of radiocesium.

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A method was devised to estimate the realistic external doses of residents expected to return to their homes after evacuation orders are lifted. For 196 residents expected to return to six towns and villages, surveys were administered in FY 2014-2016. After interviewing residents about their expected life patterns after their return, detailed air dose rate measurements were taken along their reported personal routes representing patterns of movement in their daily life.

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Five intercomparisons of in situ gamma spectrometry by 6-7 participating teams were conducted between December 2011 and August 2015 at sites in Fukushima Prefecture that were affected by the fallout from the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in March 2011. The evaluated deposition densities agreed within 5% and 4% in terms of the coefficient of variation for radiocesium (Cs and Cs) and K, respectively, and the ratio of Cs/Cs in deposition density agreed within 1% in terms of the coefficient of variation, by our best achievement through five intercomparisons. Two different methods for intercomparison were conducted: 1) simultaneous measurements in a narrow area within a 3 m radius; and 2) sequential measurements at an identical point.

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The deposition densities of radiocesium and the air dose rates were repeatedly measured in a large number of undisturbed fields within the 80 km zone that surrounds the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant site between 2011 and 2016, and features of their temporal changes were clarified. The average air dose rate excluding background radiation in this zone decreased to about 20% of the initial value during the period from June 2011 to August 2016, which was essentially a result of the radioactive decay of Cs with a half-life of 2.06 y.

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Following Fukushima nuclear disaster, several data gathering campaigns surveyed the radionuclide propagation in the environment. However, the acquired datasets do not have the same sampling dimension. For example, the airborne measurements are some sort of averaging over a circular field of view, beneath the sensor; while the soil analyses are much more punctual.

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We summarized temporal changes in air dose rates and radionuclide deposition densities over five years in the 80 km zone based on large-scale environmental monitoring data obtained continuously after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident, including those already reported in the present and previous special issues. After the accident, multiple radionuclides deposited on the ground were detected over a wide area; radiocesium was found to be predominantly important from the viewpoint of long-term exposure. The relatively short physical half-life of Cs (2.

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Ambient dose equivalent rates in various environments related to human lives were measured by walk surveys using the KURAMA-II systems from 2013 to 2016 within an 80-km radius of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant. The dose rate of the locations where the walk survey was performed decreased to about 38% of its initial value in the 42 months from June 2013 to the December 2016, which was beyond that attributable to the physical decay of radiocaesium. The ecological half-life of the slow decreasing component was evaluated to be 4.

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As part of the investigation of the distribution of ambient dose equivalent rates around the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP), car-borne surveys using Kyoto University RAdiation MApping (KURAMA) systems have been conducted over a wide area in eastern Japan since 2011. The enormous volume of measurement data collected until 2016, including those until 2012 which were reported in the previous paper, was analyzed, and dependencies of the decreasing trend of the dose rates in regions within 80 km of the FDNPP on land-use categories, evacuation order areas and magnitude of the dose rates were examined. The air dose rates within 80 km of the FDNPP tended to decrease considerably with respect to the physical decay of radiocaesium.

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In order to estimate residents' external dose due to radionuclide exposure resulting from fallout deposit on the ground, the shielding and dose reduction effects provided by structures such as houses and workplaces are taken into account as most individuals spend a large portion of their time indoors. Many works on both calculation and measurement for European and American settlements have been reported and factors such as, shielding factors, protection factors, reduction factors, and location factors have been determined. However, measurement data for Japanese settlements are lacking.

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In this study, we quantify the temporal changes of air dose rates in the regional scale around the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan, and predict the spatial distribution of air dose rates in the future. We first apply the Bayesian geostatistical method developed by Wainwright et al. (2017) to integrate multiscale datasets including ground-based walk and car surveys, and airborne surveys, all of which have different scales, resolutions, spatial coverage, and accuracy.

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As part of the investigation of the distribution of ambient dose equivalent rates around the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP), car-borne surveys using Kyoto University RAdiation MApping (KURAMA) systems have been conducted over a wide area in eastern Japan since 2011. The enormous volume of measurement data collected until 2016, including those until 2012 which were reported in the previous paper, was analyzed, and dependencies of the decreasing trend of the dose rates in regions within 80 km of the FDNPP on land-use categories, evacuation order areas and magnitude of the dose rates were examined. The air dose rates within 80 km of the FDNPP tended to decrease considerably with respect to the physical decay of radiocaesium.

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Ambient dose equivalent rates in various environments related to human lives were measured by walk surveys using the KURAMA-II systems from 2013 to 2016 within an 80-km radius of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant. The dose rate of the locations where the walk survey was performed decreased to about 38% of its initial value in the 42 months from June 2013 to the December 2016, which was beyond that attributable to the physical decay of radiocaesium. The ecological half-life of the slow decreasing component was evaluated to be 4.

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Article Synopsis
  • This study analyzes changes in air dose rates around the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant from 2014 to 2016 and predicts future dose rates using a Bayesian geostatistical method.
  • It integrates various datasets from walk, car, and airborne surveys to represent spatial variability in radiation exposure accurately.
  • Findings indicate a consistent decrease in air dose rates, particularly in town areas due to cleanup efforts, with predictions showing significant reductions by 2026, especially in residential regions.
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In order to estimate residents' external dose due to radionuclide exposure resulting from fallout deposit on the ground, the shielding and dose reduction effects provided by structures such as houses and workplaces are taken into account as most individuals spend a large portion of their time indoors. Many works on both calculation and measurement for European and American settlements have been reported and factors such as, shielding factors, protection factors, reduction factors, and location factors have been determined. However, measurement data for Japanese settlements are lacking.

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Radiocesium is an important environmental contaminant in fallout from nuclear reactor accidents and atomic weapons testing. A modified Diffusion-Sorption-Fixation (mDSF) model, based on the advection-dispersion equation, is proposed to describe the vertical migration of radiocesium in soils following fallout. The model introduces kinetics for the reversible binding of radiocesium.

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This paper presents a multiscale data integration method to estimate the spatial distribution of air dose rates in the regional scale around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. We integrate various types of datasets, such as ground-based walk and car surveys, and airborne surveys, all of which have different scales, resolutions, spatial coverage, and accuracy. This method is based on geostatistics to represent spatial heterogeneous structures, and also on Bayesian hierarchical models to integrate multiscale, multi-type datasets in a consistent manner.

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