Assessing the reliability of medical resource demand models in the context of COVID-19.

Background: Numerous medical resource demand models have been created as tools for governments or hospitals, aiming to predict the need for crucial resources like ventilators, hospital beds, personal protective equipment (PPE), and diagnostic kits during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the reliability of these demand models remains uncertain.

Methods: Demand models typically consist of two main components: hospital use epidemiological models that predict hospitalizations or daily admissions, and a demand calculator that translates the outputs of the epidemiological model into predictions for resource usage.

Validation framework for epidemiological models with application to COVID-19 models.

Mathematical models have been an important tool during the COVID-19 pandemic, for example to predict demand of critical resources such as medical devices, personal protective equipment and diagnostic tests. Many COVID-19 models have been developed. However, there is relatively little information available regarding reliability of model predictions.