Trends in HIV prevalence among young people in generalised epidemics: implications for monitoring the HIV epidemic.

Background: Countries measure trends in HIV incidence to assess the impact of HIV prevention and treatment programmes. Most countries have approximated trends in HIV incidence through modelled estimates or through trends in HIV prevalence among young people (aged 15-24 years) assuming they have recently become sexually active and have thus only been recently exposed to HIV.

Methods: Trends in HIV incidence are described and results are compared using three proxy measures of incidence: HIV prevalence among young women attending antenatal clinics (ANCs) in 22 countries; HIV prevalence among young male and female nationally representative household survey respondents in 14 countries; and modelled estimates of adult (ages 15-49 years) HIV incidence in 26 countries.