An agent-based model to simulate the transmission dynamics of bloodborne pathogens within hospitals.

Mathematical models are powerful tools to analyze pathogen spread and assess control strategies in healthcare settings. Nevertheless, available models focus on nosocomial transmission through direct contact or aerosols rather than through blood, even though bloodborne pathogens remain a significant source of iatrogenic infectious risk. Herein, we propose an agent-based SEI (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected) model to reproduce the transmission of bloodborne pathogens dynamically within hospitals.

The public health co-benefits of strategies consistent with net-zero emissions: a systematic review.

Moving towards net-zero emission societies is projected to provide human health co-benefits. However, the magnitude of these co-benefits is poorly documented and might be context specific. Synthesising the evidence on these co-benefits could enhance the engagement of decision makers and populations in climate mitigation actions.

Assessing yellow fever outbreak potential and implications for vaccine strategy.

Yellow fever (YF), a vector-borne viral hemorrhagic fever, is endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America, with large vaccination programmes being used for control. However, significant outbreaks have occurred in recent years. Data on infection rates and seroprevalence is often sparse, requiring robust mathematical models to estimate the burden of yellow fever.

Paris 2024 Olympic Games: A risk enhancer for autochthonous arboviral diseases epidemics?

Objectives: The anticipated increase in international tourist flows and the first locally acquired dengue cases in the Paris region in October 2023 have raised concerns about potential arbovirus outbreaks during the 2024 Olympics. Unlike previous mass sporting events at risk of arbovirus outbreaks, Paris is a nonendemic arbovirus area, requiring a unique investigation.

Methods: Therefore, we analyzed factors conducive to possible arbovirus epidemics in temperate regions: vector distribution in the Paris area, seasonal global arboviral disease patterns, projected visitor demographics, and international flight bookings.

A Comparison of Presentation, Treatment, and Survival After Hepatocellular Carcinoma of Viral and Non-Viral Etiology in Damietta, Egypt, 2007-2019.

Context: The difference in prognosis between patients diagnosed with viral versus non-viral hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Egypt remains unclear.

Methods: We used data from patients diagnosed with HCC between 2007 and 2019 from a large monocentric retrospective cohort at the Damietta Oncology referral center (northern Egypt). Presentation and treatment were compared between viral versus non-viral etiology HCC patients.

The untapped health and climate potential of cycling in France: a national assessment from individual travel data.

Background: Promoting active modes of transportation such as cycling may generate important public health, economic, and climate mitigation benefits. We aim to assess the mortality and morbidity impacts of cycling in a country with relatively low levels of cycling, France, along with associated monetary benefits. We further assess the potential additional benefits of shifting a portion of short trips from cars to bikes, including projected greenhouse gas emissions savings.

Preventing iatrogenic HCV infection: A quantitative risk assessment based on observational data in an Egyptian hospital.

When compliance with infection control recommendations is non-optimal, hospitals may play an important role in hepatitis C (HCV) transmission. However, few studies have analyzed the nosocomial HCV acquisition risk based on detailed empirical data. Here, we used data from a prospective cohort study conducted on 500 patients in the Ain Shams hospital (Cairo, Egypt) in 2017 with the objective of identifying (i) high-risk patient profiles and (ii) transmission hotspots within the hospital.

Sick leave due to COVID-19 during the first pandemic wave in France, 2020.

Objectives: To quantify the burden of COVID-19-related sick leave during the first pandemic wave in France, accounting for sick leaves due to symptomatic COVID-19 ('symptomatic sick leaves') and those due to close contact with COVID-19 cases ('contact sick leaves').

Methods: We combined data from a national demographic database, an occupational health survey, a social behaviour survey and a dynamic SARS-CoV-2 transmission model. Sick leave incidence from 1 March 2020 to 31 May 2020 was estimated by summing daily probabilities of symptomatic and contact sick leaves, stratified by age and administrative region.

Changes in Presentation, Treatment, and Survival of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Damietta, Egypt, 2007-2019: A Retrospective Monocentric Cohort Study.

Introduction: We aimed to assess temporal changes in the presentation and survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the northern Egypt region, one of the regions reporting the highest incidence of the disease globally.

Methods: We conducted a monocentric retrospective study. Patients presenting at the Damietta Oncology referral center between 2007 and 2019 with a diagnosed HCC were eligible.

Association between Conflict and Cholera in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Cholera outbreaks contribute substantially to illness and death in low- and middle-income countries. Cholera outbreaks are associated with several social and environmental risk factors, and extreme conditions can act as catalysts. A social extreme known to be associated with infectious disease outbreaks is conflict, causing disruption to services, loss of income, and displacement.

Estimating the risk of incident SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers in quarantine hospitals: the Egyptian example.

In response to the COVID-19 epidemic, Egypt established a unique care model based on quarantine hospitals where only externally-referred confirmed COVID-19 patients were admitted, and healthcare workers resided continuously over 1- to 2-week working shifts. Using a mathematical model accounting for the false-negative rates of RT-PCR tests, we computed the incidence rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection among HCWs, while unveiling the proportion of infections remaining undiagnosed despite routine testing. We relied on longitudinal data, including results of routine RT-PCR tests, collected within three Egyptian quarantine hospitals.

Assessing the Health Benefits of Physical Activity Due to Active Commuting in a French Energy Transition Scenario.

Energy transition scenarios are prospective outlooks describing combinations of changes in socio-economic systems that are compatible with climate targets. These changes could have important health co-benefits. We aimed to quantify the health benefits of physical activity caused by active transportation on all-cause mortality in the French negaWatt scenario over the 2021-2050 period.

Understanding the pathways leading to socioeconomic inequalities in HIV testing uptake in 18 sub-Saharan African countries.

Objective: To better understand the different pathways linking socioeconomic position and HIV testing uptake in 18 sub-Saharan African countries.

Design: We used cross-sectional population-based surveys between 2010 and 2018.

Methods: Using a potential outcomes framework and the product method, we decomposed the total effect linking wealth and recent (<12 months) HIV testing into direct effects, and indirect effects, via internal (related to individual's ability to perceive need for and to seek care) or external (ability to reach, pay for and engage in healthcare) mediators to calculate the proportion mediated (PM) by each mediator.

Meta-analysis: risk of hepatitis C virus infection associated with hospital-based invasive procedures.

Background: Healthcare settings, where invasive procedures are frequently performed, may play an important role in the transmission dynamics of blood-borne pathogens when compliance with infection control precautions is suboptimal.

Aims: To understand and quantify the role of hospital-based invasive procedures on hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission.

Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify recent studies reporting association measures of HCV infection risk that are linked to iatrogenic procedures.

[Dual-use research on modified pathogens in the laboratory: What framework for what issue?].

Technological advances in synthetic biology have made in vitro modification, or even creation, of viruses easier and more affordable. Several research studies using synthesis of potential pandemic pathogens led to controversies in the 2010's. More recently, the hypothesis that Covid-19 pandemics could originate from a lab escape is still under debate.

Can we distinguish the roles of demographic and temporal changes in the incidence and prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders? A systematic review.

Objectives: Musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) represent a major public health issue, affecting more then 40 million European workers in 2017. The overall aging of the working population is expected to increase the burden of disease, but temporal changes in exposures or diagnosis may also drive the global trends in MSD. We therefore conducted a systematic review to summarize the evidence on the role of demographic and temporal changes in the occurrence of MSD.

How can the public health impact of vaccination be estimated?

Background: Deaths due to vaccine preventable diseases cause a notable proportion of mortality worldwide. To quantify the importance of vaccination, it is necessary to estimate the burden averted through vaccination. The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC) was established to estimate the health impact of vaccination.

Assessing the impact of preventive mass vaccination campaigns on yellow fever outbreaks in Africa: A population-level self-controlled case series study.

Background: The Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy was launched in 2017 in response to the resurgence of yellow fever in Africa and the Americas. The strategy relies on several vaccination activities, including preventive mass vaccination campaigns (PMVCs). However, to what extent PMVCs are associated with a decreased risk of outbreak has not yet been quantified.

Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study.

Background: The past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030.

Methods: 16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever.