Rationalizing risk aversion in science: Why incentives to work hard clash with incentives to take risks.

Scientific research requires taking risks, as the most cautious approaches are unlikely to lead to the most rapid progress. Yet, much funded scientific research plays it safe and funding agencies bemoan the difficulty of attracting high-risk, high-return research projects. Why don't the incentives for scientific discovery adequately impel researchers toward such projects? Here, we adapt an economic contracting model to explore how the unobservability of risk and effort discourages risky research.

Why ex post peer review encourages high-risk research while ex ante review discourages it.

Peer review is an integral component of contemporary science. While peer review focuses attention on promising and interesting science, it also encourages scientists to pursue some questions at the expense of others. Here, we use ideas from forecasting assessment to examine how two modes of peer review-ex ante review of proposals for future work and ex post review of completed science-motivate scientists to favor some questions instead of others.

Resonance in Physiologically Structured Population Models.

Ecologists have long sought to understand how the dynamics of natural populations are affected by the environmental variation those populations experience. A transfer function is a useful tool for this purpose, as it uses linearization theory to show how the frequency spectrum of the fluctuations in a population's abundance relates to the frequency spectrum of environmental variation. Here, we show how to derive and to compute the transfer function for a continuous-time model of a population that is structured by a continuous individual-level state variable such as size.

Stony coral populations are more sensitive to changes in vital rates in disturbed environments.

Reef-building corals, like many long-lived organisms, experience environmental change as a combination of separate but concurrent processes, some of which are gradual yet long-lasting, while others are more acute but short-lived. For corals, some chronic environmental stressors, such as rising temperature and ocean acidification, are thought to induce gradual changes in colonies' vital rates. Meanwhile, other environmental changes, such as the intensification of tropical cyclones, change the disturbance regime that corals experience.

Regulation of OmpA Translation and Shigella dysenteriae Virulence by an RNA Thermometer.

RNA thermometers are -acting riboregulators that mediate the posttranscriptional regulation of gene expression in response to environmental temperature. Such regulation is conferred by temperature-responsive structural changes within the RNA thermometer that directly result in differential ribosomal binding to the regulated transcript. The significance of RNA thermometers in controlling bacterial physiology and pathogenesis is becoming increasingly clear.

Contest models highlight inherent inefficiencies of scientific funding competitions.

Scientific research funding is allocated largely through a system of soliciting and ranking competitive grant proposals. In these competitions, the proposals themselves are not the deliverables that the funder seeks, but instead are used by the funder to screen for the most promising research ideas. Consequently, some of the funding program's impact on science is squandered because applying researchers must spend time writing proposals instead of doing science.

Drivers of elevational richness peaks, evaluated for trees in the east Himalaya.

Along elevational gradients, species richness often peaks at intermediate elevations and not the base. Here we refine and test eight hypotheses to evaluate causes of a richness peak in trees of the eastern Himalaya. In the field, we enumerated trees in 50 plots of size 0.

Evolution of host preference in anthropophilic mosquitoes.

Background: Insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) have played a large role in reducing the burden of malaria. There is concern however regarding the potential of the mass distributions and use of ITNs to select for insecticide and behavioural resistance in mosquito populations. A key feature of the vectorial capacity of the major sub-Saharan African malaria vector Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (s.

Publication bias and the canonization of false facts.

Science is facing a "replication crisis" in which many experimental findings cannot be replicated and are likely to be false. Does this imply that many scientific facts are false as well? To find out, we explore the process by which a claim becomes fact. We model the community's confidence in a claim as a Markov process with successive published results shifting the degree of belief.

A General, Synthetic Model for Predicting Biodiversity Gradients from Environmental Geometry.

Latitudinal and elevational biodiversity gradients fascinate ecologists, and have inspired dozens of explanations. The geometry of the abiotic environment is sometimes thought to contribute to these gradients, yet evaluations of geometric explanations are limited by a fragmented understanding of the diversity patterns they predict. This article presents a mathematical model that synthesizes multiple pathways by which environmental geometry can drive diversity gradients.

Estimating index of refraction from polarimetric hyperspectral imaging measurements.

Current material identification techniques rely on estimating reflectivity or emissivity which vary with viewing angle. As off-nadir remote sensing platforms become increasingly prevalent, techniques robust to changing viewing geometries are desired. A technique leveraging polarimetric hyperspectral imaging (P-HSI), to estimate complex index of refraction, N̂(ν̃), an inherent material property, is presented.

Within-Host Niche Differences and Fitness Trade-offs Promote Coexistence of Plant Viruses.

Pathogens live in diverse, competitive communities, yet the processes that maintain pathogen diversity remain elusive. Here, we use a species-rich, well-studied plant virus system, the barley yellow dwarf viruses, to examine the mechanisms that regulate pathogen diversity. We empirically parameterized models of three viruses, their two aphid vectors, and one perennial grass host.

Predicting Pre-planting Risk of Stagonospora nodorum blotch in Winter Wheat Using Machine Learning Models.

Pre-planting factors have been associated with the late-season severity of Stagonospora nodorum blotch (SNB), caused by the fungal pathogen Parastagonospora nodorum, in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum). The relative importance of these factors in the risk of SNB has not been determined and this knowledge can facilitate disease management decisions prior to planting of the wheat crop. In this study, we examined the performance of multiple regression (MR) and three machine learning algorithms namely artificial neural networks, categorical and regression trees, and random forests (RF), in predicting the pre-planting risk of SNB in wheat.

Environmental influences on mosquito foraging and integrated vector management can delay the evolution of behavioral resistance.

Along with the scaled-up distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets for malaria control has become concern about insecticide resistance. A related concern regards the evolution of host-seeking periodicity from the nocturnal to the crepuscular periods of the day. Why we observe such shifts in some areas but not others and which methods could prove useful in managing such behavioral resistance remain open questions.

HYPERSPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR STANDOFF DETECTION OF DIMETHYL METHYLPHOSPHONATE ON BUILDING MATERIALS.

Detecting organophosphates in indoor settings can greatly benefit from more efficient and faster methods of surveying large surface areas than conventional approaches, which sample small surface areas followed by extraction and analysis. This study examined a standoff detection technique utilizing hyperspectral imaging for analysis of building materials in near-real time. In this proof-of-concept study, dimethyl methylphosphonate (DMMP) was applied to stainless steel and laminate coupons and spectra were collected during active illumination.

Controls over native perennial grass exclusion and persistence in California grasslands invaded by annuals.

Despite obvious impacts of nonnative species in many ecosystems, the long-term outcome of competition between native and exotic species often remains unclear. Demographic models can resolve the outcome of competition between native and exotic species and provide insight into conditions favoring exclusion vs. coexistence.

The differential effects of increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events on coral populations.

Extreme events, which have profound ecological consequences, are changing in both frequency and magnitude with climate change. Because extreme temperatures induce coral bleaching, we can explore the relative impacts of changes in frequency and magnitude of high temperature events on coral reefs. Here, we combined climate projections and a dynamic population model to determine how changing bleaching regimes influence coral persistence.

Stability of Caribbean coral communities quantified by long-term monitoring and autoregression models.

Tropical coral reefs exemplify ecosystems imperiled by environmental change. Anticipating the future of reef ecosystems requires understanding how scleractinian corals respond to the multiple environmental disturbances that threaten their survival. We analyzed the stability of coral reefs at three habitats at different depths along the south shore of St.

Does knee malalignment predict the efficacy of realignment therapy for patients with knee osteoarthritis?

Background: Realignment therapies, including knee braces, foot orthoses and shoes are prescribed to patients with medial knee osteoarthritis (OA) with the goal of unloading the medial tibiofemoral (TF) compartment. It is uncertain whether realignment therapies have different effects in those with knee malalignment. We studied whether the efficacy of realignment therapy for pain and function in persons with medial TF OA is predicted by the severity of the baseline knee malalignment.

The community ecology of pathogens: coinfection, coexistence and community composition.

Disease and community ecology share conceptual and theoretical lineages, and there has been a resurgence of interest in strengthening links between these fields. Building on recent syntheses focused on the effects of host community composition on single pathogen systems, we examine pathogen (microparasite) communities using a stochastic metacommunity model as a starting point to bridge community and disease ecology perspectives. Such models incorporate the effects of core community processes, such as ecological drift, selection and dispersal, but have not been extended to incorporate host-pathogen interactions, such as immunosuppression or synergistic mortality, that are central to disease ecology.

Mid-IR hyperspectral imaging of laminar flames for 2-D scalar values.

This work presents a new emission-based measurement which permits quantification of two-dimensional scalar distributions in laminar flames. A Michelson-based Fourier-transform spectrometer coupled to a mid-infrared camera (1.5 μm to 5.

Persistence and change in community composition of reef corals through present, past, and future climates.

The reduction in coral cover on many contemporary tropical reefs suggests a different set of coral community assemblages will dominate future reefs. To evaluate the capacity of reef corals to persist over various time scales, we examined coral community dynamics in contemporary, fossil, and simulated future coral reef ecosystems. Based on studies between 1987 and 2012 at two locations in the Caribbean, and between 1981 and 2013 at five locations in the Indo-Pacific, we show that many coral genera declined in abundance, some showed no change in abundance, and a few coral genera increased in abundance.

Response diversity can increase ecological resilience to disturbance in coral reefs.

Community-level resilience depends on the interaction between multiple populations that vary in individual responses to disturbance. For example, in tropical reefs, some corals can survive higher stress (resistance) while others exhibit faster recovery (engineering resilience) following disturbances such as thermal stress. While each type will negatively affect the other through competition, each might also benefit the other by reducing the potential for an additional competitor such as macroalgae to invade after a disturbance.