The impact of tobacco smoking and smoking cessation on lung cancer and stroke incidence among people with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a simulation modeling study.

Introduction: With declining HIV-related mortality, over 20% of people with HIV (PWH) in South Africa are now over age 50 years, and tobacco-related non-communicable disease burden is increasing. We quantified the impact of smoking and smoking cessation on lung cancer and stroke incidence among PWH in South Africa.

Methods: Using a microsimulation model, we simulated 18 cohorts of initially virologically suppressed PWH over their lifetime, categorised by sex, initial age (35 years/45 years/55 years) and smoking status (current/former/never).

Cost-effectiveness of viral load testing for transitioning antiretroviral therapy-experienced children to dolutegravir in South Africa: a modelling analysis.

Background: For children with HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART), transitioning to dolutegravir-containing regimens is recommended. The aim of this study was to assess whether introducing viral load testing to inform new nucleoside or nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) for children with HIV and viraemia alongside dolutegravir-based ART is beneficial and of good economic value.

Methods: We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications-Pediatric model to project clinical and cost implications of three strategies among a simulated cohort of South African children aged 8 years with HIV receiving abacavir-lamivudine-efavirenz: (1) continue current ART (no dolutegravir; abacavir-lamivudine-efavirenz); (2) transition all children with HIV to dolutegravir, keeping current NRTIs (dolutegravir; abacavir-lamivudine-dolutegravir); or (3) transition to dolutegravir based on viral load testing (viral load plus dolutegravir), keeping current NRTIs if virologically suppressed (abacavir-lamivudine-dolutegravir, 70% of cohort) or switching abacavir to zidovudine (zidovudine) if viraemic (zidovudine-lamivudine-dolutegravir, 30%).

Tuberculosis Preventive Treatment for Pregnant People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in South Africa: A Modeling Analysis of Clinical Benefits and Risks.

Background: Although prior studies of tuberculosis-preventive treatment (TPT) for pregnant people with human immunodeficiency virus (PPWH) report conflicting adverse pregnancy outcome (APO) risks, international guidelines recommend TPT for PPWH.

Methods: We used a microsimulation model to evaluate 5 TPT strategies among PPWH receiving antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: No TPT; 6 months of isoniazid (6H) or 3 months of isoniazid-rifapentine (3HP) during pregnancy (Immediate 6H or Immediate 3HP) or post partum (Deferred 6H or Deferred 3HP). The primary outcomes were maternal, fetal/infant, and combined deaths from causes potentially influenced by TPT (maternal tuberculosis, maternal hepatotoxicity, stillbirth, low birth weight [LBW], and infant tuberculosis).

Public Health Impact of FDA's Request for Additional Safety Data on Cytisine for Tobacco Cessation.

Importance: No new tobacco cessation medication has been licensed in the US since 2006. Cytisine, a plant-based partial agonist of nicotinic acetylcholine receptors, has demonstrated safety and efficacy in several randomized clinical trials and is currently available in many countries. However, the drug is not commercially available in the US.

Tobacco smoking, smoking cessation and life expectancy among people with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a simulation modelling study.

Introduction: As access to effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) has improved globally, tobacco-related illnesses, including cardiovascular disease, cancer and chronic respiratory conditions, account for a growing proportion of deaths among people with HIV (PWH). We estimated the impact of tobacco smoking and smoking cessation on life expectancy among PWH in South Africa.

Methods: In a microsimulation model, we simulated 18 cohorts of PWH with virologic suppression, each homogenous by sex, initial age (35y/45y/55y) and smoking status (current/former/never).

Using simulation modeling to inform intervention and implementation selection in a rapid stakeholder-engaged hybrid effectiveness-implementation randomized trial.

Background: Implementation research generally assumes established evidence-based practices and prior piloting of implementation strategies, which may not be feasible during a public health emergency. We describe the use of a simulation model of the effectiveness of COVID-19 mitigation strategies to inform a stakeholder-engaged process of rapidly designing a tailored intervention and implementation strategy for individuals with serious mental illness (SMI) and intellectual/developmental disabilities (ID/DD) in group homes in a hybrid effectiveness-implementation randomized trial.

Methods: We used a validated dynamic microsimulation model of COVID-19 transmission and disease in late 2020/early 2021 to determine the most effective strategies to mitigate infections among Massachusetts group home staff and residents.

Projecting the Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of HIV Prevention Resource Reallocation in Tennessee.

Background: In 2023, Tennessee replaced $6.2 M in US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention funding with state funds to redirect support away from men who have sex with men (MSM), transgender women (TGW), and heterosexual Black women (HSBW) and to prioritize instead first responders (FR), pregnant people (PP), and survivors of sex trafficking (SST).

Methods: We used a simulation model of HIV disease to compare the clinical impact of Current, the present allocation of condoms, preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP), and HIV testing to CDC priority risk groups (MSM/TGW/HSBW); with Reallocation, funding instead increased HIV testing and linkage of Tennessee-determined priority populations (FR/PP/SST).

Predictors of COVID-19 infection and hospitalization in group homes for individuals with intellectual and/or developmental disabilities.

Background: More than seven million people with intellectual and/or developmental disabilities (ID/DD) live in the US and may face an elevated risk for COVID-19.

Objective: To identify correlates of COVID-19 and related hospitalizations among people with ID/DD in group homes in Massachusetts.

Methods: We collected data during March 1, 2020-June 30, 2020 (wave 1) and July 1, 2020-March 31, 2021 (wave 2) from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health and six organizations administering 206 group homes for 1035 residents with ID/DD.

Modeling approaches to inform travel-related policies for COVID-19 containment: A scoping review and future directions.

Background: Travel-related strategies to reduce the spread of COVID-19 evolved rapidly in response to changes in the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 and newly available tools for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Modeling is an important methodology to investigate the range of outcomes that could occur from different disease containment strategies.

Methods: We examined 43 articles published from December 2019 through September 2022 that used modeling to evaluate travel-related COVID-19 containment strategies.

Projected Life Expectancy for Adolescents With HIV in the US.

Importance: Life expectancy is a key measure of overall population health. Life expectancy estimates for youth with HIV in the US are needed in the current HIV care and treatment context to guide health policies and resource allocation.

Objective: To compare life expectancy between 18-year-old youth with perinatally acquired HIV (PHIV), youth with nonperinatally acquired HIV (NPHIV), and youth without HIV.

What does the scale-up of long-acting HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis mean for the global hepatitis B epidemic?

Introduction: The HIV and hepatitis B virus (HBV) epidemics are interconnected with shared routes of transmission and specific antiviral drugs that are effective against both viruses. Nearly, 300 million people around the world live with chronic HBV, many of whom are from priority populations who could benefit from HIV prevention services. Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV has implications in the prevention and treatment of HBV infection, but many people at increased risk of HIV acquisition may instead prefer long-acting formulations of PrEP, which are currently not active against HBV.

Mitigating the COVID-19 Pandemic through Data-Driven Resource Sharing.

COVID-19 outbreaks in local communities can result in a drastic surge in demand for scarce resources such as mechanical ventilators. To deal with such demand surges, many hospitals (1) purchased large quantities of mechanical ventilators, and (2) canceled/postponed elective procedures to preserve care capacity for COVID-19 patients. These measures resulted in a substantial financial burden to the hospitals and poor outcomes for non-COVID-19 patients.

Variability in life expectancy among people with HIV in Brazil by gender and sexual orientation.

Introduction: In Brazil, though Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) is available to all, the benefits may not be experienced uniformly. We projected Life Expectancy (LE) for People Living with HIV (PLHIV) in care as currently observed and estimated the impact of guideline-concordant care.

Methods: Using a microsimulation model, we projected LE for a cohort of PLHIV and for four population groups: cisgender Men who have Sex with Men (MSM), cisgender Men who have Sex with Women (MSW), Cisgender Women (CGW), and Transgender Women (TGW).

Age-associated dementia among older people aging with HIV in the United States: a modeling study.

Objective: Almost 400 000 people with HIV (PWH) in the United States are over age 55 years and at risk for age-associated dementias (AAD), including Alzheimer's disease and vascular contributions to cognitive impairment and dementia (VCID). We projected the cumulative incidence and mortality associated with AAD among PWH at least 60 years in the United States compared with the general population.

Design/methods: Integrating the CEPAC and AgeD-Pol models, we simulated two cohorts of 60-year-old male and female individuals: PWH, and the general US population.

Virological, serological and clinical outcomes in chronic hepatitis B virus infection: development and validation of the HEPA-B simulation model.

Objectives: Detailed simulation models are needed to assess strategies for prevention and treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, the world's leading cause of liver disease. We sought to develop and validate a simulation model of chronic HBV that incorporates virological, serological and clinical outcomes.

Methods: We developed a novel Monte Carlo simulation model (the HEPA-B Model) detailing the natural history of chronic HBV.

Projected Life Expectancy Gains From Improvements in HIV Care in Black and White Men Who Have Sex With Men.

Importance: Substantial racial inequities exist across the HIV care continuum between non-Hispanic Black and White men who have sex with men (MSM) in the US.

Objectives: To project years of life gained (YLG) with improving the HIV care continuum among Black MSM and White MSM in the US and to determine the outcomes of achieving health equity goals.

Design, Setting, And Participants: The Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications microsimulation model was used and populated with 2021 race-specific data to simulate HIV care among Black MSM and White MSM in the US who have acquired HIV.

Cost-effectiveness of broadly neutralizing antibodies for infant HIV prophylaxis in settings with high HIV burdens: a simulation modeling study.

Introduction: Approximately 130 000 infants acquire HIV annually despite global maternal antiretroviral therapy scale-up. We evaluated the potential clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of offering long-acting, anti-HIV broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) prophylaxis to infants in three distinct settings.

Methods: We simulated infants in Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa, and Zimbabwe using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications-Pediatric (CEPAC-P) model.

Projecting the Clinical and Economic Impacts of Changes to HIV Care Among Adolescents and Young Adults in the United States: Lessons From the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, many US youth with HIV (YHIV) used telehealth services; others experienced disruptions in clinic and antiretroviral therapy (ART) access.

Methods: Using the Cost-effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)-Adolescent HIV microsimulation model, we evaluated 3 scenarios: 1) Clinic: in-person care; 2) Telehealth: virtual visits, without CD4 or viral load monitoring for 12 months, followed by return to usual care; and 3) Interruption: complete care interruption with no ART access or laboratory monitoring for 6 months (maximum clinic closure time), followed by return to usual care for 80%. We assigned higher 1-year retention (87% vs 80%) and lower cost/visit ($49 vs $56) for Telehealth vs Clinic.

COVID-19-Related Outcomes Among Group Home Residents with Serious Mental Illness in Massachusetts in the First Year of the Pandemic.

This study examined COVID-19 infection and hospitalizations among people with serious mental illness who resided in residential care group homes in Massachusetts during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors analyzed data on 2261 group home residents and COVID-19 data from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health. Outcomes included positive COVID-19 tests and COVID-19 hospitalizations March 1, 2020-June 30, 2020 (wave 1) and July 1, 2020-March 31, 2021 (wave 2).

Daily Oral HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Among Young Men Who Have Sex With Men in the United States: Cost-saving at Generic Drug Price.

Background: Adherence and retention concerns raise questions about the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of oral HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in young men who have sex with men (YMSM).

Methods: Using an adolescent-focused simulation model, we compared annual HIV screening alone with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine-based oral PrEP with every 3-month HIV screening in YMSM (aged 15-24) at increased risk of HIV. Data derived from published sources included: age-stratified HIV incidence/100 person-years (PY) on- or off-PrEP (0.

The Value-of-Information and Value-of-Implementation from Clinical Trials of Diagnostic Tests for HIV-Associated Tuberculosis: A Modeling Analysis.

Unlabelled: Conventional value-of-information (VOI) analysis assumes complete uptake of an optimal decision. We employed an extended framework that includes value-of-implementation (VOM)-the benefit of encouraging adoption of an optimal strategy-and estimated how future trials of diagnostic tests for HIV-associated tuberculosis could improve public health decision making and clinical and economic outcomes. We evaluated the clinical outcomes and costs, given current information, of 3 tuberculosis screening strategies among hospitalized people with HIV in South Africa: sputum Xpert (), sputum Xpert plus urine AlereLAM (), and sputum Xpert plus the newer, more sensitive, and costlier urine FujiLAM ().

Projected Benefits of Long-Acting Antiretroviral Therapy in Nonsuppressed People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Experiencing Adherence Barriers.

Background: In a demonstration project, long-acting, injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine (CAB-RPV) achieved viral suppression in a high proportion of people with HIV (PWH) who were virologically nonsuppressed with adherence barriers. We projected the long-term impact of CAB-RPV for nonsuppressed PWH experiencing adherence barriers.

Methods: Using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model, we compared 3 strategies: (1) standard of care oral integrase inhibitor-based ART (); (2) INSTI-based ART with supportive social services ("wraparound services" [WS]) (); and (3) CAB-RPV with WS ().

The association between all-cause mortality and HIV acquisition risk groups in the United States, 2001-2014.

Objective: To investigate associations between all-cause mortality and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition risk groups among people without HIV in the United States.

Methods: We used data from 23,657 (NHANES) participants (2001-2014) and the Linked Mortality File to classify individuals without known HIV into HIV acquisition risk groups: people who ever injected drugs (ever-PWID); men who have sex with men (MSM); heterosexually active people at increased risk for HIV (HIH), using low income as a proxy for increased risk. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate adjusted and unadjusted all-cause mortality hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Linkage to HIV Care Interventions in the United States, Canada, and Ukraine (2010-2021).

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of interventions targeting linkage to HIV care in the US, Canada, and Europe. We searched six databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and CINAHL). Inclusion criteria were English language studies in adults in the US, Canada, or Europe, published January 1, 2010 to January 1, 2021.