Feasibility of implementing an integrated long-term database to advance ecosystem-based management in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin.

The North American Great Lakes have been experiencing dramatic change during the past half-century, highlighting the need for holistic, ecosystem-based approaches to management. To assess interest in ecosystem-based management (EBM), including the value of a comprehensive public database that could serve as a repository for the numerous physical, chemical, and biological monitoring Great Lakes datasets that exist, a two-day workshop was organized, which was attended by 40+ Great Lakes researchers, managers, and stakeholders. While we learned during the workshop that EBM is not an explicit mission of many of the participating research, monitoring, and management agencies, most have been conducting research or monitoring activities that can support EBM.

How do unobserved confounding mediators and measurement error impact estimated mediation effects and corresponding statistical inferences? Introducing the R package ConMed for sensitivity analysis.

Empirical studies often demonstrate multiple causal mechanisms potentially involving simultaneous or causally related mediators. However, researchers often use simple mediation models to understand the processes because they do not or cannot measure other theoretically relevant mediators. In such cases, another potentially relevant but unobserved mediator potentially confounds the observed mediator, thereby biasing the estimated direct and indirect effects associated with the observed mediator and threatening corresponding inferences.

Quantifying the robustness of causal inferences: Sensitivity analysis for pragmatic social science.

Social scientists seeking to inform policy or public action must carefully consider how to identify effects and express inferences because actions based on invalid inferences may not yield the intended results. Recognizing the complexities and uncertainties of social science, we seek to inform inevitable debates about causal inferences by quantifying the conditions necessary to change an inference. Specifically, we review existing sensitivity analyses within the omitted variables and potential outcomes frameworks.

Fishing, predation, and temperature drive herring decline in a large marine ecosystem.

Since 1960, landings of Atlantic herring have been the greatest of any marine species in Canada, surpassing Atlantic cod and accounting for 24% of the total seafood harvested in Atlantic Canada. The Scotian Shelf-Bay of Fundy herring fisheries (NAFO Division 4VWX) is among Canada's oldest and drives this productivity, accounting for up to 75% of the total herring catch in some years. The stocks' productivity and overall health have declined since 1965.

Temporal scope influences ecosystem driver-response relationships: A case study of Lake Erie with implications for ecosystem-based management.

Understanding environmental driver-response relationships is critical to the implementation of effective ecosystem-based management. Ecosystems are often influenced by multiple drivers that operate on different timescales and may be nonstationary. In turn, contrasting views of ecosystem state and structure could arise depending on the temporal perspective of analysis.

Functional traits reveal the dominant drivers of long-term community change across a North American Great Lake.

Ecosystems worldwide have been impacted by multiple anthropogenic stressors, yet efforts to understand and manage these impacts have been hindered by difficulties in disentangling relative stressor effects. Theoretically, the actions of individual stressors can be delineated based on associated changes in functional traits and these relationships should be generalizable across communities comprised of different species. Thus, combining trait perspectives with community composition data could help to identify the relative influence of different stressors.

Hypothetical case replacement can be used to quantify the robustness of trial results.

Objectives: We apply a general case replacement framework for quantifying the robustness of causal inferences to characterize the uncertainty of findings from clinical trials.

Study Design And Setting: We express the robustness of inferences as the amount of data that must be replaced to change the conclusion and relate this to the fragility of trial results used for dichotomous outcomes. We illustrate our approach in the context of an RCT of hydroxychloroquine on pneumonia in COVID-19 patients and a cumulative meta-analysis of the effect of antihypertensive treatments on stroke.

Resource-driven colonization by cod in a high Arctic food web.

Climate change is commonly associated with many species redistributions and the influence of other factors may be marginalized, especially in the rapidly warming Arctic.The Barents Sea, a high latitude large marine ecosystem in the Northeast Atlantic has experienced above-average temperatures since the mid-2000s with divergent bottom temperature trends at subregional scales.Concurrently, the Barents Sea stock of Atlantic cod one of the most important commercial fish stocks in the world, increased following a large reduction in fishing pressure and expanded north of 80°N.

The spatial and temporal dynamics of global meat trade networks.

Rapid increases in meat trade generate complex global networks across countries. However, there has been little research quantifying the dynamics of meat trade networks and the underlying forces that structure them. Using longitudinal network data for 134 countries from 1995 to 2015, we combined network modeling and cluster analysis to simultaneously identify the structural changes in meat trade networks and the factors that influence the networks themselves.

The rise of a marine generalist predator and the fall of beta diversity.

Determining the importance of physical and biological drivers in shaping biodiversity in diverse ecosystems remains a global challenge. Advancements have been made towards this end in large marine ecosystems with several studies suggesting environmental forcing as the primary driver. However, both empirical and theoretical studies point to additional drivers of changes in diversity involving trophic interactions and, in particular, predation.

Implementation of Evidence-Based Practice In Human Service Organizations: Implications From Agent-Based Models.

Much of the impact of a policy depends on how it is implemented, especially as mediated by organizations such as schools or hospitals. Here, we focus on how implementation of evidence-based practices in human service organizations (e.g.

Exploitation drives an ontogenetic-like deepening in marine fish.

Virtually all studies reporting deepening with increasing size or age by fishes involve commercially harvested species. Studies of North Sea plaice in the early 1900s first documented this phenomenon (named Heincke's law); it occurred at a time of intensive harvesting and rapid technological changes in fishing methods. The possibility that this deepening might be the result of harvesting has never been evaluated.

Environmental structuring of marine plankton phenology.

Seasonal cycles of primary production (phenology) critically influence biogeochemical cycles, ecosystem structure and climate. In the oceans, primary production is dominated by microbial phytoplankton that drift with currents, and show rapid turnover and chaotic dynamics, factors that have hindered understanding of their phenology. We used all available observations of upper-ocean phytoplankton concentration (1995-2015) to describe global patterns of phytoplankton phenology, the environmental factors that structure them, and their relationships to terrestrial patterns.

Large scale, synchronous variability of marine fish populations driven by commercial exploitation.

Synchronous variations in the abundance of geographically distinct marine fish populations are known to occur across spatial scales on the order of 1,000 km and greater. The prevailing assumption is that this large-scale coherent variability is a response to coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics, commonly represented by climate indexes, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. On the other hand, it has been suggested that exploitation might contribute to this coherent variability.

Spatial patterns and predictors of trophic control in marine ecosystems.

A key question in ecology is under which conditions ecosystem structure tends to be controlled by resource availability vs. consumer pressure. Several hypotheses derived from theory, experiments and observational field studies have been advanced, yet a unified explanation remains elusive.

Social network analysis of mating patterns in American black bears (Ursus americanus).

Nonrandom mating can structure populations and has important implications for population-level processes. Investigating how and why mating deviates from random is important for understanding evolutionary processes as well as informing conservation and management. Prior to the implementation of parentage analyses, understanding mating patterns in solitary, elusive species like bears was virtually impossible.

Political influences on greenhouse gas emissions from US states.

Starting at least in the 1970s, empirical work suggested that demographic (population) and economic (affluence) forces are the key drivers of anthropogenic stress on the environment. We evaluate the extent to which politics attenuates the effects of economic and demographic factors on environmental outcomes by examining variation in CO2 emissions across US states and within states over time. We find that demographic and economic forces can in part be offset by politics supportive of the environment--increases in emissions over time are lower in states that elect legislators with strong environmental records.

The role of a dominant predator in shaping biodiversity over space and time in a marine ecosystem.

1. Exploitation of living marine resources has resulted in major changes to populations of targeted species and functional groups of large-bodied species in the ocean. However, the effects of overfishing and collapse of large top predators on the broad-scale biodiversity of oceanic ecosystems remain largely unexplored.

From mice to elephants: overturning the 'one size fits all' paradigm in marine plankton food chains.

It is widely believed that consumer control is a weak regulator of marine phytoplankton communities. It remains unclear, however, why this should be the case when marine consumers routinely regulate their prey at higher trophic levels. One possibility is that the weak consumer control of phytoplankton communities results from the inability of field researchers to effectively account for consumer-prey trophic relationships operating at the scale of the plankton.

Do social networks influence small-scale fishermen's enforcement of sea tenure?

Resource systems with enforced rules and strong monitoring systems typically have more predictable resource abundance, which can confer economic and social benefits to local communities. Co-management regimes demonstrate better social and ecological outcomes, but require an active role by community members in management activities, such as monitoring and enforcement. Previous work has emphasized understanding what makes fishermen comply with rules.

V. The differential association of adiposity and fitness with cognitive control in preadolescent children.

With the increasing prevalence of sedentary behaviors during childhood, a greater understanding of the extent to which excess adiposity and aerobic fitness relate to cognitive health is of increasing importance. To date, however, the vast majority of research in this area has focused on adiposity or fitness, rather than the possible inter-relationship, as it relates to cognition. Accordingly, this study examined the differential associations between body composition, aerobic fitness, and cognitive control in a sample of 204 (96 female) preadolescent children.

Social contexts of substance use among U.S. high school seniors: a multicohort national study.

Purpose: To determine the social contexts associated with the past-year substance use (multiple substances, alcohol, marijuana, and nonmedical use of prescription opioids, stimulants, and tranquilizers) among U.S. high school seniors.