Quantifying natural variability as a method to detect environmental change: Definitions of the normal range for a single observation and the mean of m observations.

The normal range has been defined as the range that encloses 95% of reference values; in practice this range has been defined as the reference mean ± 2 standard deviations (SD). When sample sizes are small and reference data are not normally distributed, the mean ± 2 SDs do not enclose 95% of data values. Prediction intervals (PI) calculated using sample statistics are used in the present study to define the normal range for a single observation and the mean of m observations.