Cotton thrips infestation predictor: a practical tool for predicting tobacco thrips (Frankliniella fusca) infestation of cotton seedlings in the south-eastern United States.

Background: Thrips (order Thysanoptera) infestations of cotton seedlings result in plant injury, increasing the detrimental consequences of other challenges to production agriculture, such as abiotic stress or infestation by other pests. Using Frankliniella fusca as a thrips species of focus, we empirically developed a composite model of thrips phenology and cotton seedling susceptibility to predict site-specific infestation risk so that monitoring and other resources can be allocated efficiently, to optimize the timing of thrips control measures to maximize effectiveness, and to inform stakeholders about the dynamics of thrips infestation and cotton seedling injury at a time when thrips are evolving resistance to commonly-used pesticides.

Results: A mixture distribution model of thrips infestation potential, fit to data describing F.