Using simulation modelling to test the impact of future demand for end-of-life care.

Health systems globally are exploring new models of care to address the increasing demand for palliative, hospice, and end-of-life care. Yet few tools exist at the population level to explore "what if" scenarios and test, in a "cost avoidance environment," the impact of these new care models on policy, workforce, technology, and funding. This article introduces the application of scenario-based "what if" thinking and discrete event simulation in strategic planning for a not-for-profit hospice organization.

Emergence and spread of drug resistant influenza: A two-population game theoretical model.

Background: The potential for emergence of antiviral drug resistance during influenza pandemics has raised great concern for public health. Widespread use of antiviral drugs is a significant factor in producing resistant strains. Recent studies show that some influenza viruses may gain antiviral drug resistance without a fitness penalty.

The impact of aggregating serogroups in dynamic models of Neisseria meningitidis transmission.

Background: Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) is a pathogen of multiple serogroups that is highly prevalent in many populations. Serogroups associated with invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in Canada, for example, include A, B, C, W-135, X and Y. IMD is a rare but serious outcome of Nm infection, and can be prevented with vaccines that target certain serogroups.