Publications by authors named "Keith Hayes"

As oil and gas infrastructure comes to the end of its working life, a decommissioning decision must be made: should the infrastructure be abandoned in situ, repurposed, partially removed, or fully removed? Environmental contaminants around oil and gas infrastructure could influence these decisions because contaminants in sediments could degrade the value of the infrastructure as habitat, enter the seafood supply if the area is re-opened for commercial and/or recreational fishing, or be made biologically available as sediment is resuspended when the structures are moved. An initial risk hypothesis, however, may postulate that these concerns are only relevant if contaminant concentrations are above screening values that predict the possibility of environmental harm or contaminant bioaccumulation. To determine whether a substantive contaminants-based risk assessment is needed for infrastructure in the Gippsland Basin (South-eastern Australia), we measured the concentration of metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in benthic sediments collected around eight platforms earmarked for decommissioning.

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Engineered gene drives create potential for both widespread benefits and irreversible harms to ecosystems. CRISPR-based systems of allelic conversion have rapidly accelerated gene drive research across diverse taxa, putting field trials and their necessary risk assessments on the horizon. Dynamic process-based models provide flexible quantitative platforms to predict gene drive outcomes in the context of system-specific ecological and evolutionary features.

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Malaria is one of the deadliest vector-borne diseases in the world. Researchers are developing new genetic and conventional vector control strategies to attempt to limit its burden. Novel control strategies require detailed safety assessment to ensure responsible and successful deployments.

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Recent advances in gene-editing technologies have opened new avenues for genetic pest control strategies, in particular around the use of gene drives to suppress or modify pest populations. Significant uncertainty, however, surrounds the applicability of these strategies to novel target species, their efficacy in natural populations and their eventual safety and acceptability as control methods. In this article, we identify issues associated with the potential use of gene drives in agricultural systems, to control pests and diseases that impose a significant cost to agriculture around the world.

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Background: Reproductive containment provides an opportunity to implement a staged-release strategy for genetic control of malaria vectors, in particular allowing predictions about the spread and persistence of (self-limiting) sterile and male-biased strains to be compared to outcomes before moving to (self-sustaining) gene-drive strains.

Methods: In this study, we: (i) describe a diffusion-advection-reaction model of the spread and persistence of a single cohort of male mosquitoes; (ii) elicit informative prior distributions for model parameters, for wild-type (WT) and genetically modified dominant sterile strains (DSM); (iii) estimate posterior distributions for WT strains using data from published mark-recapture-release (MRR) experiments, with inference performed through the Delayed-Rejection Adaptive Metropolis algorithm; and (iv) weight prior distributions, in order to make predictions about genetically modified strains using Bayes factors calculated for the WT strains.

Results: If a single cohort of 5000 genetically modified dominant sterile male mosquitoes are released at the same location as previous MRR experiments with their WT counterparts, there is a 90% probability that the expected number of released mosquitoes will fall to < 1 in 10 days, and that by 12 days there will be a 99% probability that no mosquitoes will be found more than 150 m from the release location.

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The relative risk of disease transmission caused by the potential release of transgenic vectors, such as through sterile insect technique or gene drive systems, is assessed with comparison with wild-type vectors. The probabilistic risk framework is demonstrated with an assessment of the relative risk of lymphatic filariasis, malaria and o'nyong'nyong arbovirus transmission by mosquito vectors to human hosts given a released transgenic strain of carrying a dominant sterile male gene construct. Harm is quantified by a logarithmic loss function that depends on the causal risk ratio, which is a quotient of basic reproduction numbers derived from mathematical models of disease transmission.

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The geographic niches of many species are dramatically changing as a result of environmental and anthropogenic impacts such as global climate change and the introduction of invasive species. In particular, genetically compatible subspecies that were once geographically separated are being reintroduced to one another. This is of concern for conservation, where rare or threatened subspecies could be bred out by hybridising with their more common relatives, and for commercial interests, where the stock or quality of desirable harvested species could be compromised.

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Background: Deep Tissue Pressure Injury (DTI) occurs in the tissues underlying the skin that may not have visible signs of skin breakdown and may be detected by ultrasound. The optimal position for ischial region ultrasound image acquisition to facilitate assessment of the tissue proximal to the ischias not been determined.

Objective: To evaluate the mean difference in geometric and grey scale measures of tissues overlying the ischial tuberosity (IT) acquired from ultrasound images in supine and lateral recumbent simulated sitting positions from adults with spinal cord impairment (SCI).

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Invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) are a threat to marine biodiversity and marine reliant industries. Recreational vessels are recognised as an important vector of NIS translocation, particularly domestically. This paper reports on a novel application of multilevel modelling and multiple imputation in order to quantify the relationship between biofouling biomass (wet weight) and the vessel-level characteristics of recreational and fishing vessels.

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Efficient monitoring of organisms is at the foundation of protected area and biodiversity management. Such monitoring programs are based on a systematically selected set of survey locations that, while able to track trends at those locations through time, lack inference for the overall region being "monitored". Advances in spatially-balanced sampling approaches offer alternatives but remain largely untested in marine ecosystems.

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: Optimal management of neuropathic pain (NP) is essential to enhancing health-related quality of life for individuals living with spinal cord injury (SCI). A key strategic priority for the Ontario Neurotrauma Foundation (ONF) and Rick Hansen Institute (RHI) is optimizing NP management after SCI. : A National Canadian Summit, sponsored by ONF and RHI, was held to develop a strategic plan to improve NP management after SCI.

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Objectives: To describe the process and outcomes of using a new evidence base to develop scientific guidelines that specify the type and minimum dose of exercise necessary to improve fitness and cardiometabolic health in adults with spinal cord injury (SCI).

Setting: International.

Methods: Using Appraisal of Guidelines, Research and Evaluation (AGREE) II reporting criteria, steps included (a) determining the guidelines' scope; (b) conducting a systematic review of relevant literature; (c) holding three consensus panel meetings (European, Canadian and International) to formulate the guidelines; (d) obtaining stakeholder feedback; and (e) process evaluation by an AGREE II consultant.

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Versatile molecular tools for creating driving transgenes and other invasive genetic factors present regulatory, ethical, and environmental challenges that should be addressed to ensure their safe use. In this article, we discuss driving transgenes and invasive genetic factors that can potentially spread after their introduction into a small proportion of individuals in a population. The potential of invasive genetic factors to increase their number in natural populations presents challenges that require additional safety measures not provided by previous recommendations regarding accidental release of arthropods.

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International collaboration in spinal cord injury (SCI) research is necessary to overcome the challenges often encountered by clinicians and researchers, including participant recruitment, high cost, and the need for specialized expertise. However, international collaboration poses its own obstacles. The objective of this study was to conduct an international online survey to assess barriers and facilitators to international SCI clinical research, potential initiatives to facilitate future collaborations, and the use of SCI-specific data sets and standards.

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The crown-of-thorns starfish Acanthaster planci (COTS) has contributed greatly to declines in coral cover on Australia's Great Barrier Reef, and remains one of the major acute disturbances on Indo-Pacific coral reefs. Despite uncertainty about the underlying causes of outbreaks and the management responses that might address them, few studies have critically and directly compared competing hypotheses. This study uses qualitative modelling to compare hypotheses relating to outbreak initiation, explicitly considering the potential role of positive feedbacks, elevated nutrients, and removal of starfish predators by fishing.

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Spinal cord injury (SCI) is associated with both a state of chronic inflammation and an increased prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD). These disorders are closely linked and have been shown to negatively influence one another. Participation in regular exercise has been shown to be an effective intervention strategy in the treatment of each of these disorders.

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The recently declared Australian Commonwealth Marine Reserve (CMR) Network covers a total of 3.1 million km2 of continental shelf, slope, and abyssal habitat. Managing and conserving the biodiversity values within this network requires knowledge of the physical and biological assets that lie within its boundaries.

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Models provide useful insights into conservation and resource management issues and solutions. Their use to date has highlighted conditions under which no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) may help us to achieve the goals of ecosystem-based management by reducing pressures, and where they might fail to achieve desired goals. For example, static reserve designs are unlikely to achieve desired objectives when applied to mobile species or when compromised by climate-related ecosystem restructuring and range shifts.

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As the number of marine protected areas (MPAs) increases globally, so does the need to assess if MPAs are meeting their management goals. Integral to this assessment is usually a long-term biological monitoring program, which can be difficult to develop for large and remote areas that have little available fine-scale habitat and biological data. This is the situation for many MPAs within the newly declared Australian Commonwealth Marine Reserve (CMR) network which covers approximately 3.

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Increases in drought and temperature stress in forest and woodland ecosystems are thought to be responsible for the rise in episodic mortality events observed globally. However, key climatic drivers common to mortality events and the impacts of future extreme droughts on tree survival have not been evaluated. Here, we characterize climatic drivers associated with documented tree die-off events across Australia using standardized climatic indices to represent the key dimensions of drought stress for a range of vegetation types.

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This study examined whether levels of chronic disease risk factors change over time, and whether leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) can explain any of the variation in those risk factors that change, in a sample of community-dwelling people living with spinal cord injury (SCI) in or near Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. LTPA was measured using the Physical Activity Recall Assessment for People with SCI at baseline (n = 76 adults with chronic (≥1 year) paraplegia or tetraplegia), at 6 months (n = 71) and at 18 months (n = 63). Body mass index, waist circumference at the lowest rib (WC(lowest rib)) and iliac crest (WC(iliac crest)), fat mass, blood pressure, and biochemical data were collected at all 3 time points.

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Extreme risks in ecology are typified by circumstances in which data are sporadic or unavailable, understanding is poor, and decisions are urgently needed. Expert judgments are pervasive and disagreements among experts are commonplace. We outline approaches to evaluating extreme risks in ecology that rely on stochastic simulation, with a particular focus on methods to evaluate the likelihood of extinction and quasi-extinction of threatened species, and the likelihood of establishment and spread of invasive pests.

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