Predicting future blood supply and demand in Japan with a Markov model: application to the sex- and age-specific probability of blood donation.

Background: Simulation studies were performed to predict the future supply and demand for blood donations, and future shortfalls.

Study Design And Methods: Using data from all donations in 2006 to 2009, the Markov model was applied to estimate future blood donations until 2050. Based on data concerning the actual use of blood products, the number of blood products needed was estimated based on future population projections.