Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe.

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Europe where it represents a new public health threat. While climate change has been cited as a potential driver of its spatial expansion on the continent, a formal evaluation of this causal relationship is lacking. Here, we investigate the extent to which WNV spatial expansion in Europe can be attributed to climate change while accounting for other direct human influences such as land-use and human population changes.

Human displacements, fatalities, and economic damages linked to remotely observed floods.

We present a new open source dataset FLODIS that links estimates of flood-induced human displacements, fatalities, and economic damages to flooded areas observed through remote sensing. The dataset connects displacement data from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), as well as data on fatalities and damages from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), with the Global Flood Database (GFD), a satellite-based inventory of historic flood footprints. It thereby provides a spatially explicit estimate of the flood hazard underlying each individual disaster event.

Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming.

Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane shocks.

Climate change and international migration: Exploring the macroeconomic channel.

International migration patterns, at the global level, can to a large extent be explained through economic factors in origin and destination countries. On the other hand, it has been shown that global climate change is likely to affect economic development over the coming decades. Here, we demonstrate how these future climate impacts on national income levels could alter the global migration landscape.

Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes.

Young generations are severely threatened by climate change.

Climate signals in river flood damages emerge under sound regional disaggregation.

Climate change affects precipitation patterns. Here, we investigate whether its signals are already detectable in reported river flood damages. We develop an empirical model to reconstruct observed damages and quantify the contributions of climate and socio-economic drivers to observed trends.

Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming.

Background: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe.

Methods: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design.

State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes.

Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions.

Spatial variations in crop growing seasons pivotal to reproduce global fluctuations in maize and wheat yields.

Testing our understanding of crop yield responses to weather fluctuations at global scale is notoriously hampered by limited information about underlying management conditions, such as cultivar selection or fertilizer application. Here, we demonstrate that accounting for observed spatial variations in growing seasons increases the variance in reported national maize and wheat yield anomalies that can be explained by process-based model simulations from 34 to 58% and 47 to 54% across the 10 most weather-sensitive main producers, respectively. For maize, the increase in explanatory power is similar to the increase achieved by accounting for water stress, as compared to simulations assuming perfect water supply in both rainfed and irrigated agriculture.

Adaptation required to preserve future high-end river flood risk at present levels.

Earth's surface temperature will continue to rise for another 20 to 30 years even with the strongest carbon emission reduction currently considered. The associated changes in rainfall patterns can result in an increased flood risk worldwide. We compute the required increase in flood protection to keep high-end fluvial flood risk at present levels.

Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability.

Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models.

Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models.

High temperatures are detrimental to crop yields and could lead to global warming-driven reductions in agricultural productivity. To assess future threats, the majority of studies used process-based crop models, but their ability to represent effects of high temperature has been questioned. Here we show that an ensemble of nine crop models reproduces the observed average temperature responses of US maize, soybean and wheat yields.

Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment.

Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures.

The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP): project framework.

The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project offers a framework to compare climate impact projections in different sectors and at different scales. Consistent climate and socio-economic input data provide the basis for a cross-sectoral integration of impact projections. The project is designed to enable quantitative synthesis of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming.

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change.

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables.

Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change.

We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.

Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world.

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure.

Influence of statin treatment on coronary atherosclerosis visualised using multidetector computed tomography.

Objective: Coronary angiography using multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) allows non-invasive assessment of non-calcified, calcified and mixed plaques. Progression of coronary plaques may be influenced by statins.

Methods: Sixty-three consecutive patients underwent MDCT as a follow-up to their original CT angiography in a retrospective longitudinal study.

Comparison of body size estimation in adolescents with different types of eating disorders.

Objective: To examine differences in body size estimation in adolescents with different types of eating disorders.

Method: A total of 129 patients with eating disorders (M(age) = 16.0 +/- 1.

Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 degrees C.

More than 100 countries have adopted a global warming limit of 2 degrees C or below (relative to pre-industrial levels) as a guiding principle for mitigation efforts to reduce climate change risks, impacts and damages. However, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions corresponding to a specified maximum warming are poorly known owing to uncertainties in the carbon cycle and the climate response. Here we provide a comprehensive probabilistic analysis aimed at quantifying GHG emission budgets for the 2000-50 period that would limit warming throughout the twenty-first century to below 2 degrees C, based on a combination of published distributions of climate system properties and observational constraints.

Relevance of intracranial hypertension for cerebral metabolism in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. Clinical article.

Object: Intracranial hypertension, defined as intracranial pressure (ICP) >/= 20 mm Hg, is a complication typically associated with head injury. Its impact on cerebral metabolism, ICP therapy, and outcome has rarely been studied in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH); such an assessment is the authors' goal in the present study.

Methods: Cerebral metabolism was prospectively studied in 182 patients with aSAH.

The German version of the Anorectic Behavior Observation Scale (ABOS).

Objective: To assess the performance of the German version of the Anorectic Behavior Observation Scale (ABOS) as a parent-report screening instrument for eating disorders (ED) in their children.

Methods: Parents of 101 ED female patients (80 with Anorexia Nervosa; 21 with Bulimia Nervosa) and of 121 age- and socioeconomic status (SES)-matched female controls completed the ABOS.

Results: Confirmatory factor analysis supported the original three-factor structure model of the ABOS.

Cerebral microdialysis for detection of bacterial meningitis in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage patients: a cohort study.

Introduction: Bacterial meningitis (BM) is a severe complication in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH). Clinical signs of meningitis are often masked by SAH-related symptoms, and routine cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) analysis fails to indicate BM. Microdialysis (MD) is a technique for monitoring cerebral metabolism in patients with SAH.

The scent-diffusing ventilator for rehabilitation of olfactory function after laryngectomy.

Background: The larynx bypass (LB) is the only device capable of providing laryngectomy patients with the ability to smell. Our findings regarding one-time and long-term use did reveal an improved olfactory function in these patients. Because the LB is difficult to use, however, it is not appropriate for everyday use.