The population impact of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) vaccination on the incidence of HSV-2, HIV and genital ulcer disease in South Africa: a mathematical modelling study.

Background: Evidence suggests HSV-2 infection increases HIV acquisition risk and HIV/HSV-2 coinfection increases transmission risk of both infections. We analysed the potential impact of HSV-2 vaccination in South Africa, a high HIV/HSV-2 prevalence setting.

Methods: We adapted a dynamic HIV transmission model for South Africa to incorporate HSV-2, including synergistic effects with HIV, to evaluate the impact of: (i) cohort vaccination of 9-year-olds with a prophylactic vaccine that reduces HSV-2 susceptibility; (ii) vaccination of symptomatically HSV-2-infected individuals with a therapeutic vaccine that reduces HSV shedding.

The potential public health impact of adolescent 4CMenB vaccination on Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection in England: a modelling study.

Introduction: Diagnoses of gonorrhoea in England rose by 26% between 2018 and 2019. Recent evidence that a vaccine against meningococcal B disease currently offered to infants in the UK (4CMenB) could additionally protect (with 31% efficacy) against gonorrhoea has led to renewed hope for a vaccine. A Phase 2 proof-of-concept trial of 4CMenB vaccination against gonorrhoea in adults is currently underway.

A scoping review of antibiotic use practices and drivers of inappropriate antibiotic use in animal farms in WHO Southeast Asia region.

Antibiotic use (ABU) plays an important role in the proliferation of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Global antimicrobial consumption in food production is projected to rise by 67% from 2010 to 2030, but available estimates are limited by the scarcity of ABU data and absence of global surveillance systems. The WHO South-East Asia (WHO SEA) region is at high risk of emergence of AMR, likely driven by intensifying farm operations and worsening ABU hotspots.

INCIDENCE OF HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS KERATITIS AND OTHER OCULAR DISEASE: GLOBAL REVIEW AND ESTIMATES.

Purpose: We aimed to review available data on the incidence of herpes simplex virus (HSV) keratitis and other HSV ocular disease and to estimate the global burden of HSV ocular disease.

Methods: We searched Medline and Embase databases to October 2020 for studies reporting on the incidence of HSV ocular disease. Study quality was evaluated using a four-point checklist.

What Is the Burden of Heterosexually Acquired HIV Due to HSV-2? Global and Regional Model-Based Estimates of the Proportion and Number of HIV Infections Attributable to HSV-2 Infection.

Background: Biological and epidemiological evidence suggest that herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) elevates HIV acquisition and transmission risks. We improved previous estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections by using a dynamic transmission model.

Setting: World Health Organization regions.

One Health drivers of antibacterial resistance: Quantifying the relative impacts of human, animal and environmental use and transmission.

Objectives: Antibacterial resistance (ABR) is a major global health security threat, with a disproportionate burden on lower-and middle-income countries (LMICs). It is not understood how 'One Health', where human health is co-dependent on animal health and the environment, might impact the burden of ABR in LMICs. Thailand's 2017 "National Strategic Plan on Antimicrobial Resistance" (NSP-AMR) aims to reduce AMR morbidity by 50% through 20% reductions in human and 30% in animal antibacterial use (ABU).

Estimating the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory and hospital capacity requirements in South West England: a mathematical modelling framework.

Objectives: To develop a regional model of COVID-19 dynamics for use in estimating the number of infections, deaths and required acute and intensive care (IC) beds using the South West England (SW) as an example case.

Design: Open-source age-structured variant of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental mathematical model. Latin hypercube sampling and maximum likelihood estimation were used to calibrate to cumulative cases and cumulative deaths.

The global and regional burden of genital ulcer disease due to herpes simplex virus: a natural history modelling study.

Introduction: Herpes simplex virus (HSV) infection can cause painful, recurrent genital ulcer disease (GUD), which can have a substantial impact on sexual and reproductive health. HSV-related GUD is most often due to HSV type 2 (HSV-2), but may also be due to genital HSV type 1 (HSV-1), which has less frequent recurrent episodes than HSV-2. The global burden of GUD has never been quantified.

Global and regional estimates of the contribution of herpes simplex virus type 2 infection to HIV incidence: a population attributable fraction analysis using published epidemiological data.

Background: A 2017 systematic review and meta-analysis of 55 prospective studies found the adjusted risk of HIV acquisition to be at least tripled in individuals with herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection. We aimed to assess the potential contribution of HSV-2 infection to HIV incidence, given an effect of HSV-2 on HIV acquisition.

Methods: We used a classic epidemiological formula to estimate the global and regional (WHO regional) population attributable fraction (PAF) and number of incident HIV infections attributable to HSV-2 infection by age (15-24 years, 25-49 years, and 15-49 years), sex, and timing of HSV-2 infection (established vs recently acquired).

Economic evaluation of the cost of different methods of retesting chlamydia positive individuals in England.

Objectives: The National Chlamydia Screening Programme (NCSP) in England opportunistically screens eligible individuals for chlamydia infection. Retesting is recommended three3 months after treatment following a positive test result, but no guidance is given on how local areas should recall individuals for retesting. Here , we compare cost estimates for different recall methods to inform the optimal delivery of retesting programmes.

Effect of HSV-2 infection on subsequent HIV acquisition: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infections cause a substantial global disease burden and are epidemiologically correlated. Two previous systematic reviews of the association between HSV-2 and HIV found evidence that HSV-2 infection increases the risk of HIV acquisition, but these reviews are now more than a decade old.

Methods: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, MEDLINE, and Embase (from Jan 1, 2003, to May 25, 2017) to identify studies investigating the risk of HIV acquisition after exposure to HSV-2 infection, either at baseline (prevalent HSV-2 infection) or during follow-up (incident HSV-2 infection).

First estimates of the global and regional incidence of neonatal herpes infection.

Background: Neonatal herpes is a rare but potentially devastating condition with an estimated 60% fatality rate without treatment. Transmission usually occurs during delivery from mothers with herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) or type 2 (HSV-2) genital infection. However, the global burden has never been quantified to our knowledge.

An observational study to evaluate three pilot programmes of retesting chlamydia-positive individuals within 6 months in the South West of England.

Objectives: To evaluate 3 pilot chlamydia retesting programmes in South West England which were initiated prior to the release of new National Chlamydia Screening Programme (NCSP) guidelines recommending retesting in 2014.

Methods: Individuals testing positive between August 2012 and July 2013 in Bristol (n=346), Cornwall (n=252) and Dorset (n=180) programmes were eligible for inclusion in the retesting pilots. The primary outcomes were retest within 6 months (yes/no) and repeat diagnosis at retest (yes/no), adjusted for area, age and gender.

Global and Regional Estimates of Prevalent and Incident Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 Infections in 2012.

Background: Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) commonly causes orolabial ulcers, while HSV-2 commonly causes genital ulcers. However, HSV-1 is an increasing cause of genital infection. Previously, the World Health Organization estimated the global burden of HSV-2 for 2003 and for 2012.

Competition, coinfection and strain replacement in models of Bordetella pertussis.

Pertussis, or whooping cough, is an important respiratory infection causing considerable infant mortality worldwide. Recently, incidence has risen in countries with strong vaccine programmes and there are concerns about antigenic shift resulting in vaccine evasion. Interactions between pertussis and non-vaccine-preventable strains will play an important role in the evolution and population dynamics of pertussis.

Global estimates of prevalent and incident herpes simplex virus type 2 infections in 2012.

Background: Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection causes significant disease globally. Adolescent and adult infection may present as painful genital ulcers. Neonatal infection has high morbidity and mortality.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of chlamydia testing in Scotland: a mathematical modelling study.

Background: Chlamydia is the most common sexually transmitted bacterial infection in Scotland, and is associated with potentially serious reproductive outcomes, including pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) and tubal factor infertility (TFI) in women. Chlamydia testing in Scotland is currently targeted towards symptomatic individuals, individuals at high risk of existing undetected infection, and young people. The cost-effectiveness of testing and treatment to prevent PID and TFI in Scotland is uncertain.

Mapping patient pathways and estimating resource use for point of care versus standard testing and treatment of chlamydia and gonorrhoea in genitourinary medicine clinics in the UK.

Objectives: We aimed to explore patient pathways using a chlamydia/gonorrhoea point-of-care (POC) nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT), and estimate and compare the costs of the proposed POC pathways with the current pathways using standard laboratory-based NAAT testing.

Design/participants: Workshops were conducted with healthcare professionals at four sexual health clinics representing diverse models of care in the UK. They mapped out current pathways that used chlamydia/gonorrhoea tests, and constructed new pathways using a POC NAAT.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections: observational study, systematic reviews and mathematical modelling.

Background: Partner notification is essential to the comprehensive case management of sexually transmitted infections. Systematic reviews and mathematical modelling can be used to synthesise information about the effects of new interventions to enhance the outcomes of partner notification.

Objective: To study the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections (STIs).

An early evaluation of clinical and economic costs and benefits of implementing point of care NAAT tests for Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoea in genitourinary medicine clinics in England.

Objectives: To estimate the costs and benefits of clinical pathways incorporating a point of care (POC) nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) for chlamydia and gonorrhoea in genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics compared with standard off-site laboratory testing.

Method: We simulated 1.2 million GUM clinic attendees in England.

Influenza and RSV make a modest contribution to invasive pneumococcal disease incidence in the UK.

Objectives: The common seasonality of incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and viral respiratory infections has long been recognized, however, the extent to which this affects the association between the pathogens is unknown. We have analysed weekly surveillance data of IPD, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), using ambient temperature and hours of sunshine as measures of seasonality.

Methods: Reported cases of influenza, IPD and RSV, were collected in England and Wales, from week 1 (January) 1996 to week 23 (June) 2009.

Transmission of Chlamydia trachomatis through sexual partnerships: a comparison between three individual-based models and empirical data.

Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) in many developed countries. The highest prevalence rates are found among young adults who have frequent partner change rates. Three published individual-based models have incorporated a detailed description of age-specific sexual behaviour in order to quantify the transmission of C.

The cost effectiveness of opportunistic chlamydia screening in England.

Background/aim: The National Chlamydia Screening Programme (NCSP) is being implemented in England. This study aims to estimate the cost effectiveness of (a) the NCSP strategy (annual screening offer to men and women aged under 25 years) and (b) alternative screening strategies.

Methods: A stochastic, individual based, dynamic sexual network model was combined with a cost effectiveness model to estimate the complications and associated costs of chlamydial infection.