Spatial-temporal patterns of dengue in areas at risk of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, 2002.

Objective: This study aimed to examine whether spatial-temporal patterns of dengue can be used to identify areas at risk of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF).

Methods: Three indices - probability of case-occurrence, mean duration per wave, and transmission intensity - were used to differentiate eight local spatial-temporal patterns of dengue during the 2002 epidemic in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. DHF densities (DHF cases/km(2) per 100 dengue cases) in each spatial-temporal typed area were compared.

Temperature drops and the onset of severe avian influenza A H5N1 virus outbreaks.

Global influenza surveillance is one of the most effective strategies for containing outbreaks and preparing for a possible pandemic influenza. Since the end of 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAI) H5N1 have caused many outbreaks in poultries and wild birds from East Asia and have spread to at least 48 countries. For such a fast and wide-spreading virulent pathogen, prediction based on changes of micro- and macro-environment has rarely been evaluated.