Staged HIV transmission and treatment in a dynamic model with long-term partnerships.

The transmission dynamics of HIV are closely tied to the duration and overlap of sexual partnerships. We develop an autonomous population model that can account for the possibilities of an infection from either a casual sexual partner or a long-term partner who was either infected at the start of the partnership or has been newly infected since the onset of the partnership. The impact of the long-term partnerships on the rate of infection is captured by calculating the expected values of the rate of infection from these extended contacts.

Minimizing disease spread on a quarantined cruise ship: A model of COVID-19 with asymptomatic infections.

On February 5 the Japanese government ordered the passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess to start a two week quarantine after a former passenger tested positive for COVID-19. During the quarantine the virus spread rapidly throughout the ship. By February 20, there were 651 cases.

Technologies for supporting high-order geodesic mesh frameworks for computational astrophysics and space sciences.

Many important problems in astrophysics, space physics, and geophysics involve flows of (possibly ionized) gases in the vicinity of a spherical object, such as a star or planet. The geometry of such a system naturally favors numerical schemes based on a spherical mesh. Despite its orthogonality property, the polar (latitude-longitude) mesh is ill suited for computation because of the singularity on the polar axis, leading to a highly non-uniform distribution of zone sizes.

Intermittent Preventive Treatment (IPT): Its Role in Averting Disease-Induced Mortality in Children and in Promoting the Spread of Antimalarial Drug Resistance.

We develop an age-structured ODE model to investigate the role of intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) in averting malaria-induced mortality in children, and its related cost in promoting the spread of antimalarial drug resistance. IPT, a malaria control strategy in which a full curative dose of an antimalarial medication is administered to vulnerable asymptomatic individuals at specified intervals, has been shown to reduce malaria transmission and deaths in children and pregnant women. However, it can also promote drug resistance spread.

Analysis of SI models with multiple interacting populations using subpopulations.

Computing endemic equilibria and basic reproductive numbers for systems of differential equations describing epidemiological systems with multiple connections between subpopulations is often algebraically intractable. We present an alternative method which deconstructs the larger system into smaller subsystems and captures the interactions between the smaller systems as external forces using an approximate model. We bound the basic reproductive numbers of the full system in terms of the basic reproductive numbers of the smaller systems and use the alternate model to provide approximations for the endemic equilibrium.