Building Capacity for Cervical Cancer Prevention in U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands: The Pacific Against Cervical Cancer Project.

The U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) have higher cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates and lower screening coverage compared with the United States.

Cancer screening programs in South-east Asia and Western Pacific.

Background: The burden of cancer can be altered by screening. The field of cancer screening is constantly evolving; from the initiation of program for new cancer types as well as exploring innovative screening strategies (e.g.

Benefits and harms of cervical screening, triage and treatment strategies in women living with HIV.

To support a strategy to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem, the World Health Organisation (WHO) reviewed its guidelines for screening and treatment of cervical pre-cancerous lesions in 2021. Women living with HIV have 6-times the risk of cervical cancer compared to women in the general population, and we harnessed a model platform ('Policy1-Cervix-HIV') to evaluate the benefits and harms of a range of screening strategies for women living with HIV in Tanzania, a country with endemic HIV. Assuming 70% coverage, we found that 3-yearly primary HPV screening without triage would reduce age-standardised cervical cancer mortality rates by 72%, with a number needed to treat (NNT) of 38.

Benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of cervical screening, triage and treatment strategies for women in the general population.

In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched a strategy to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To support the strategy, the WHO published updated cervical screening guidelines in 2021. To inform this update, we used an established modeling platform, Policy1-Cervix, to evaluate the impact of seven primary screening scenarios across 78 low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) for the general population of women.

Point-of-care HPV DNA testing of self-collected specimens and same-day thermal ablation for the early detection and treatment of cervical pre-cancer in women in Papua New Guinea: a prospective, single-arm intervention trial (HPV-STAT).

Background: WHO recommends human papillomavirus (HPV) testing and same-day treatment for cervical screening in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs); however, few published data exist on the validity of the strategy. We aimed to evaluate the clinical performance, treatment completion rates, adverse events profile, and acceptability of a fully integrated strategy, comprising point-of-care HPV DNA testing of self-collected specimens and same-day thermal ablation, for screening of cervical cancer in women in Papua New Guinea.

Methods: HPV-STAT was a large-scale, prospective, single-arm intervention trial conducted at two clinical sites in Papua New Guinea.

The predicted effect and cost-effectiveness of tailoring colonoscopic surveillance according to mismatch repair gene in patients with Lynch syndrome.

Purpose: Lynch syndrome-related colorectal cancer (CRC) risk substantially varies by mismatch repair (MMR) gene. We evaluated the health impact and cost-effectiveness of MMR gene-tailored colonoscopic surveillance.

Methods: We first estimated sex- and MMR gene-specific cumulative lifetime risk of first CRC without colonoscopic surveillance using an optimization algorithm.

Towards the elimination of cervical cancer in low-income and lower-middle-income countries: modelled evaluation of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of point-of-care HPV self-collected screening and treatment in Papua New Guinea.

Introduction: WHO has launched updated cervical screening guidelines, including provisions for primary HPV screen-and-treat. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has a high burden of cervical cancer, but no national cervical screening programme. We recently completed the first field trials of a screen-and-treat algorithm using point-of-care self-collected HPV and same-day treatment (hereafter self-collected HPV S&T) and showed this had superior clinical performance and acceptability to visual inspection of the cervix with acetic acid (VIA).

The road to cervical cancer elimination in Malaysia: Evaluation of the impact and cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus screening with self-collection and digital registry support.

The WHO has launched a global strategy to eliminate cervical cancer through the scale-up of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, cervical screening, and cervical cancer treatment. Malaysia has achieved high-coverage HPV vaccination since 2010, but coverage of the existing cytology-based program remains low. Pilot studies found HPV self-sampling was acceptable and effective, with high follow-up rates when a digital registry was used, and recently the Malaysian Government announced plans for a national HPV-based screening program.

Human papillomavirus vaccination for adults aged 30 to 45 years in the United States: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

Background: A nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has been licensed for use in women and men up to age 45 years in the United States. The cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination for women and men aged 30 to 45 years in the context of cervical cancer screening practice was evaluated to inform national guidelines.

Methods And Findings: We utilized 2 independent HPV microsimulation models to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of extending the upper age limit of HPV vaccination in women (from age 26 years) and men (from age 21 years) up to age 30, 35, 40, or 45 years.

Elimination of cervical cancer in Tanzania: Modelled analysis of elimination in the context of endemic HIV infection and active HIV control.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has launched a strategic initiative for cervical cancer (CC) elimination which involves scaling up three interventions: human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, twice-lifetime HPV-screening screening and pre-cancer/cancer treatment by 2030. CC is challenging to control in countries with endemic human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), as women living with HIV (WLHIV) are at elevated risk of HPV infection, persistence and progression. This analysis estimated the impact of the elimination interventions on CC incidence and mortality but additionally considered more intensive screening for WLHIV, using Tanzania as an example.

Health economic evaluation of primary human papillomavirus screening in urban populations in China.

Background: On Nov 17, 2020, WHO launched a global initiative to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer through the implementation of HPV vaccination, cervical cancer screening and treatment for precancer and cancer. China has the largest burden of cervical cancer in the world, but only has a national cervical cancer screening program in rural areas since 2009. Here, we aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening in urban China, using Shenzhen City as an example.

Could HPV Testing on Self-collected Samples Be Routinely Used in an Organized Cervical Screening Program? A Modeled Analysis.

Background: Cervical screening on self-collected samples has mainly been considered for targeted use in underscreened women. Updated evidence supports equivalent sensitivity of PCR-based human papillomavirus (HPV) testing on self-collected and clinician-collected samples.

Methods: Using a well-established model, we compared the lifetime impact on cancer diagnoses and deaths resulting from cervical screening using self-collected samples only, with and without the existing restriction in Australia to women aged 30+ years and ≥2 years overdue, compared with the mainstream program of 5-yearly HPV screening on clinician-collected samples starting at 25 years of age.

Historical and projected hysterectomy rates in the USA: Implications for future observed cervical cancer rates and evaluating prevention interventions.

Background: SEER-reported cervical cancer incidence rates reflect the total female population including women no longer at risk due to hysterectomy. Hysterectomy rates have been declining in the United States as alternative treatments have become available, which could result in an apparent increase in SEER-reported cervical cancer rates. We aimed to obtain nationally representative historical data on hysterectomy rates in USA, use trends analysis to project rates back to 1935 and forward to 2035, and then predict the impact of changing hysterectomy rates on SEER-reported cervical cancer rates.

The Impact of Different Screening Model Structures on Cervical Cancer Incidence and Mortality Predictions: The Maximum Clinical Incidence Reduction (MCLIR) Methodology.

. To interpret cervical cancer screening model results, we need to understand the influence of model structure and assumptions on cancer incidence and mortality predictions. Cervical cancer cases and deaths following screening can be attributed to 1) (precancerous or cancerous) disease that occurred after screening, 2) disease that was present but not screen detected, or 3) disease that was screen detected but not successfully treated.

The past, present and future impact of HIV prevention and control on HPV and cervical disease in Tanzania: A modelling study.

Background: Women with HIV have an elevated risk of HPV infection, and eventually, cervical cancer. Tanzania has a high burden of both HIV and cervical cancer, with an HIV prevalence of 5.5% in women in 2018, and a cervical cancer incidence rate among the highest globally, at 59.

Impact of HPV vaccine hesitancy on cervical cancer in Japan: a modelling study.

Background: Funding for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Japan began in 2010 for girls aged 12-16 years, with three-dose coverage initially reaching more than 70%. On June 14, 2013, 2 months after formal inclusion in Japan's national immunisation programme, proactive recommendations for the HPV vaccine were suspended following reports of adverse events since found to be unrelated to vaccination, but which were extensively covered in the media. Vaccine coverage subsequently dropped to less than 1% and has remained this low to date.

Projected time to elimination of cervical cancer in the USA: a comparative modelling study.

Background: In May, 2018, the Director-General of WHO issued a global call to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem, which will involve ambitious screening and vaccination coverage targets. We aimed to assess the potential for, and timing of, cervical cancer elimination in the USA and whether this could be expedited by adopting ambitious coverage targets, using two cervical cancer simulation models.

Methods: In this modelling study, we used two independently-developed cervical cancer microsimulation models-Harvard and Policy1-Cervix-to estimate changes in the incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-induced cervical cancer over time in the USA, including herd effects from vaccination.

Mortality impact of achieving WHO cervical cancer elimination targets: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

Background: WHO is developing a global strategy towards eliminating cervical cancer as a public health problem, which proposes an elimination threshold of four cases per 100 000 women and includes 2030 triple-intervention coverage targets for scale-up of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination to 90%, twice-lifetime cervical screening to 70%, and treatment of pre-invasive lesions and invasive cancer to 90%. We assessed the impact of achieving the 90-70-90 triple-intervention targets on cervical cancer mortality and deaths averted over the next century. We also assessed the potential for the elimination initiative to support target 3.

Impact of HPV vaccination and cervical screening on cervical cancer elimination: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

Background: The WHO Director-General has issued a call for action to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To help inform global efforts, we modelled potential human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical screening scenarios in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) to examine the feasibility and timing of elimination at different thresholds, and to estimate the number of cervical cancer cases averted on the path to elimination.

Methods: The WHO Cervical Cancer Elimination Modelling Consortium (CCEMC), which consists of three independent transmission-dynamic models identified by WHO according to predefined criteria, projected reductions in cervical cancer incidence over time in 78 LMICs for three standardised base-case scenarios: girls-only vaccination; girls-only vaccination and once-lifetime screening; and girls-only vaccination and twice-lifetime screening.

Estimating the Natural History of Cervical Carcinogenesis Using Simulation Models: A CISNET Comparative Analysis.

Background: The natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV)-induced cervical cancer (CC) is not directly observable, yet the age of HPV acquisition and duration of preclinical disease (dwell time) influences the effectiveness of alternative preventive policies. We performed a Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) comparative modeling analysis to characterize the age of acquisition of cancer-causing HPV infections and implied dwell times for distinct phases of cervical carcinogenesis.

Methods: Using four CISNET-cervical models with varying underlying structures but fit to common US epidemiological data, we estimated the age of acquisition of causal HPV infections and dwell times associated with three phases of cancer development: HPV, high-grade precancer, and cancer sojourn time.

Risk of childhood mortality associated with death of a mother in low-and-middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Death of a mother at an early age of the child may result in an increased risk of childhood mortality, especially in low-and-middle-income countries. This study aims to synthesize estimates of the association between a mother's death and the risk of childhood mortality at different age ranges from birth to 18 years in these settings.

Methods: Various MEDLINE databases, EMBASE, and Global Health databases were searched for population-based cohort and case-control studies published from 1980 to 2017.

The predicted impact and cost-effectiveness of systematic testing of people with incident colorectal cancer for Lynch syndrome.

Objectives: To evaluate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of systematic testing for Lynch syndrome (LS) in people with incident colorectal cancer (CRC) in Australia.

Design, Setting, Participants: We investigated the impact of LS testing strategies in a micro-simulation model (Policy1-Lynch), explicitly modelling the cost of testing all patients diagnosed with incident CRC during 2017, with detailed modelling of outcomes for patients identified as LS carriers (probands) and their at-risk relatives throughout their lifetimes. For people with confirmed LS, we modelled ongoing colonoscopic surveillance.

Development and application of a framework to estimate health care costs in China: The cervical cancer example.

Objectives: Information on healthcare costs in low-and-middle-income countries is limited. This study presents a framework to perform healthcare cost estimates for each province in China.

Methods: This study has two aims.

HPV-FRAME: A consensus statement and quality framework for modelled evaluations of HPV-related cancer control.

Intense research activity in HPV modelling over this decade has prompted the development of additional guidelines to those for general modelling. A specific framework is required to address different policy questions and unique complexities of HPV modelling. HPV-FRAME is an initiative to develop a consensus statement and quality-based framework for epidemiologic and economic HPV models.