From conceptualising to modelling structural determinants and interventions in HIV transmission dynamics models: a scoping review and methodological framework for evidence-based analyses.

Background: Including structural determinants (e.g. criminalisation, stigma, inequitable gender norms) in dynamic HIV transmission models is important to help quantify their population-level impacts and guide implementation of effective interventions that reduce the burden of HIV and inequalities thereof.

Measuring HIV Acquisitions Among Partners of Key Populations: Estimates From HIV Transmission Dynamic Models.

Background: Key populations (KPs), including female sex workers (FSWs), gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID), and transgender women (TGW) experience disproportionate risks of HIV acquisition. The UNAIDS Global AIDS 2022 Update reported that one-quarter of all new HIV infections occurred among their non-KP sexual partners. However, this fraction relied on heuristics regarding the ratio of new infections that KPs transmitted to their non-KP partners to the new infections acquired among KPs (herein referred to as "infection ratios").

Comparison of Empirically Derived and Model-Based Estimates of Key Population HIV Incidence and the Distribution of New Infections by Population Group in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Background: The distribution of new HIV infections among key populations, including female sex workers (FSWs), gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID) are essential information to guide an HIV response, but data are limited in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We analyzed empirically derived and mathematical model-based estimates of HIV incidence among key populations and compared with the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimates.

Methods: We estimated HIV incidence among FSW and MSM in SSA by combining meta-analyses of empirical key population HIV incidence relative to the total population incidence with key population size estimates (KPSE) and HIV prevalence.

Efficacy estimates of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in cisgender women with partial adherence.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir (TFV) disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine administered orally daily is effective in preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition in both men and women with sufficient adherence; however, the adherence-efficacy relationship in cisgender women has not been well established. We calculated the adherence-efficacy curve for cisgender women by using HIV incidence and plasma TFV concentration data from three trials (FEM-PrEP, VOICE and Partners PrEP). We imputed TFV diphosphate (TFV-DP) concentrations, a measure of long-term adherence, from TFV quantification by using data from the HIV Prevention Trials Network 082 study, which measured both TFV-DP and TFV concentrations.

Filling the gaps: A community case study in using an interprofessional approach and community-academic partnerships to address COVID-19-related inequities.

Public health challenges rapidly escalated during the COVID-19 pandemic. In response to a severe lack of resources and support in the near western suburbs of Chicago, the COVID Equity Response Collaborative: Loyola (CERCL) was established by an interprofessional team of Loyola University Chicago students, staff, and faculty. CERCL sought to minimize the negative impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable communities, those that are largely Black, Hispanic, or low-income.

Estimating the impact of HIV PrEP regimens containing long-acting injectable cabotegravir or daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine among men who have sex with men in the United States: a mathematical modelling study for HPTN 083.

Background: The HPTN 083 trial demonstrated superiority of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) containing long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB) to daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) among men who have sex with men (MSM). We compared the potential population-level impact of TDF/FTC and CAB among MSM in Atlanta, Georgia.

Methods: An MSM HIV transmission model was calibrated to Atlanta-specific data on HIV prevalence and PrEP usage (percentage of uninfected MSM on PrEP), assuming only PrEP-indicated MSM used PrEP.

Economic evaluation of improving HIV self-testing among MSM in China using a crowdsourced intervention: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Objectives: Crowdsourcing, which taps into the wisdom of crowds, has been successful in generating strategies to enhance HIV self-testing (HIVST) uptake. We determined the cost-effectiveness of a crowdsourced intervention (one-off or annual) compared with a control scenario (no crowdsourcing) among MSM living in China.

Design: Economic evaluation.

Medical-Legal Partnerships Reinvigorate Systems Lawyering Using an Upstream Approach.

The upstream framework presented in public health and medicine considers health problems from a preventive perspective, seeking to understand and address the root causes of poor health. Medical-legal partnerships (MLPs) have demonstrated the value of this upstream framework in the practice of law and engage in upstream lawyering by utilizing systemic advocacy to address root causes of injustices and health inequities. This article explores upstreaming and its use by MLPs in reframing legal practice.

HTPN 078: an enhanced case management study to achieve viral suppression among viremic HIV-positive men who have sex with men in the United States.

Objectives: After identifying and recruiting men who have sex with men living with HIV and virally unsuppressed, this study attempted to enhance treatment and care via case management to increase the proportion who achieved viral suppression.

Design: Participants were randomized into one of two study arms: standard of care (SOC) or enhanced case management (CM) intervention. Participants were followed for 12 months with quarterly study assessments, with blood collected for CD4+ cell count testing, HIV viral load testing (primary prespecified outcome), and plasma storage.

An Inter-professional Antiracist Curriculum Is Paramount to Addressing Racial Health Inequities.

Legal, medical, and public health professionals have been complicit in creating and maintaining systems that drive health inequities. To ameliorate this, current and future leaders in law, medicine, and public health must learn about racism and its impact along the life course trajectory and how to engage in antiracist practice and health equity work.

Impact of pre-event testing and quarantine on reducing the risk of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study.

Background: With the evolving growth of the COVID-19 epidemic, travel restriction policies would need to be adjusted accordingly. Prohibition of mass event may be relaxed for social and economic benefits when virus transmission stops but could bear the risk of epidemic rebound. Against the background of the varied SARS-CoV-2 prevalence internationally, we modelled the potential impacts of pre-event interventions on epidemic risk of holding a mass event when COVID-19 is under control.

How Can Progress Toward Ending the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic in the United States Be Monitored?

The plan for Ending the HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) Epidemic (EHE) in the United States aims to reduce new infections by 75% by 2025 and by 90% by 2030. For EHE to be successful, it is important to accurately measure changes in numbers of new HIV infections after 5 and 10 years (to determine whether the EHE goals have been achieved) but also over shorter timescales (to monitor progress and intensify prevention efforts if required). In this viewpoint, we aim to demonstrate why the method used to monitor progress toward the EHE goals must be carefully considered.

Under-Reporting of Known HIV-Positive Status Among People Living with HIV: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Monitoring progress towards the UNAIDS 'first 90' target requires accurate estimates of levels of diagnosis among people living with HIV (PLHIV), which is often estimated using self-report. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis quantifying under-reporting of known HIV-positive status using objective knowledge proxies. Databases were searched for studies providing self-reported and biological/clinical markers of prior knowledge of HIV-positive status among PLHIV.

The impact of disruptions due to COVID-19 on HIV transmission and control among men who have sex with men in China.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting HIV care globally, with gaps in HIV treatment expected to increase HIV transmission and HIV-related mortality. We estimated how COVID-19-related disruptions could impact HIV transmission and mortality among men who have sex with men (MSM) in four cities in China, over a one- and five-year time horizon.

Methods: Regional data from China indicated that the number of MSM undergoing facility-based HIV testing reduced by 59% during the COVID-19 pandemic, alongside reductions in ART initiation (34%), numbers of all sexual partners (62%) and consistency of condom use (25%), but initial data indicated no change in viral suppression.

Assessing the Potential Impact of Disruptions Due to COVID-19 on HIV Among Key and Lower-Risk Populations in the Largest Cities of Cameroon and Benin.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic indirectly impacts HIV epidemiology in Central/West Africa. We estimated the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HIV prevention/treatment services and sexual partnerships on HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths among key populations including female sex workers (FSW), their clients, men who have sex with men, and overall.

Setting: Yaoundé (Cameroon) and Cotonou (Benin).

The potential effect of COVID-19-related disruptions on HIV incidence and HIV-related mortality among men who have sex with men in the USA: a modelling study.

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, men who have sex with men (MSM) in the USA have reported similar or fewer sexual partners and reduced HIV testing and care access compared with before the pandemic. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use has also declined. We aimed to quantify the potential effect of COVID-19 on HIV incidence and HIV-related mortality among US MSM.

Modelling the impact of an HIV testing intervention on HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in China.

Objectives: An intervention developed through participatory crowdsourcing methods increased HIV self-testing among men who have sex with men [MSM; relative risk (RR) = 1.89]. We estimated the long-term impact of this intervention on HIV transmission among MSM in four cities (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Jinan and Qingdao).

Assessing the use of surveillance data to estimate the impact of prevention interventions on HIV incidence in cluster-randomized controlled trials.

Background: In cluster-randomized controlled trials (C-RCTs) of HIV prevention strategies, HIV incidence is expensive to measure directly. Surveillance data on HIV diagnoses or viral suppression could provide cheaper incidence estimates. We used mathematical modelling to evaluate whether these measures can replace HIV incidence measurement in C-RCTs.

Estimating the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on HIV incidence and mortality among men who have sex with men in the United States: a modelling study.

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, gay and other men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States (US) report similar or fewer sexual partners and reduced HIV testing and care access. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use has declined. We estimated the potential impact of COVID-19 on HIV incidence and mortality among US MSM.

Model-Based Predictions of HIV Incidence Among African Women Using HIV Risk Behaviors and Community-Level Data on Male HIV Prevalence and Viral Suppression.

Background: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine has proven highly effective in preventing HIV acquisition and is therefore offered to all participants in the control group as part of the standard of care package in many new HIV prevention studies. We propose a methodology for predicting HIV incidence in a hypothetical "placebo arm" for open-label studies or clinical trials with active control among African women. We apply the method to an open-label PrEP study, HIV Prevention Trials Network 082, which tested strategies to improve PrEP adherence in young African women all of whom were offered PrEP.

Identifying Regions of Greatest Need for Ending the HIV Epidemic: A Plan for America.

Background: In the 2019 State of the Union Address, President Trump announced a plan for "Ending the HIV Epidemic" in the United States, with a goal to reduce new HIV infections by 90% by 2030. Phase I of the plan set an intermediate goal of a 75% reduction within 5 years, focusing on select states and counties.

Methods: We assessed the feasibility of the first phase of the plan by estimating the fraction of HIV diagnoses that occur within the targeted region, using a statistical model to predict new HIV cases in each county.

Mathematical Model Impact Analysis of a Real-Life Pre-exposure Prophylaxis and Treatment-As-Prevention Study Among Female Sex Workers in Cotonou, Benin.

Background: Daily pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and treatment-as-prevention (TasP) reduce HIV acquisition and transmission risk, respectively. A demonstration study (2015-2017) assessed TasP and PrEP feasibility among female sex workers (FSW) in Cotonou, Benin.

Setting: Cotonou, Benin.